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Most Profitable Bets For Celtics vs. Heat Game 3 Tonight 5/21/22

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Can the Boston Celtics take control of the Eastern Conference Finals? Boston returns home for two games after earning a 127-102 victory over Miami on Thursday to tie the series at 1-1. The 127 points are the most points that the Celtics have scored and the most points that the Heat has given up this postseason. The Celtics shot 51.2% from the field and canned 20 3-pointers, marking the third time they made at least 20 3’s a game during the playoffs. Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 27 points, while Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart chipped in 24 apiece. Tip off for Game 3 is slated for 8:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden. The Celtics have won three of the five games against the Heat this year.


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Interestingly, none of the five games between the top teams during the regular season in the Eastern Conference have been closer than eight points, but that it is likely to change here. Also, do not expect the points to be scored as freely as they have been in the first two contests, where there have been at least 225 points put up in each game.

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This is the first time this postseason that Miami enters Game 3 not owning a 2-0 series lead. The Heat are 9-4 in playoffs with a plus-7.1 scoring margin. The Heat are just 2-3 on the road with a plus-0.8 scoring margin as they have not been as good offensively or defensively on the road as they have been at home. The Heat averages 101.2 points on 43.6% shooting from the field and just 26.7% from the 3-point line away from home. Jimmy Butler continues to play at a fantastic level, while Gabe Vincent and Tyler Herro have played well in the series. Herro does need to start hitting shots from the perimeter and cut down on turnovers. Herro is knocking down just 12.5% of his attempts from beyond the arc and averages three turnovers a game over the last two games. At the same token, their opponents are averaging 100.4 points on 46.7% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from the 3-point line over these five games.

Boston is also 9-4 in the postseason with a plus-6.7 point differential. The Celtics are 4-2 at home during the postseason with a plus-7.3 scoring differential though they have not been as good on the offensive end when at TD Garden. The Celtics average 107 points on 45.5% shooting from the field and 38.5% from the 3-point line. Tatum and Brown have continued to thrive in the playoffs during the series, and Peyton Pritchard has also played well over the last two games. Defensively, the C’s are allowing 99.8 points on 44.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from the 3-point line at the Garden.

Over the first two games of the series, the Heat and the Celtics have similar numbers, with 3-point shooting being the biggest difference. It is unlikely the Celtics will shoot as well from the 3-point line as they did in Game 2, or that Smart and Grant Williams will have as good of games as they did on Thursday.

Boston is favored by six points tonight, which is a half-point lower than the opening line. Both of the Celtics’ first two Game 3’s finished within five points, and one of the Heat’s two Game 3’s saw the same. OddsShopper gives Miami a 52% chance of covering the six-point spread, which is a half-point lower than the opening line.

The keys for the Heat will be Bam Adebayo‘s production. Adebayo has been relatively absent in the first two games, compiling just eight points on five shots a game. He produced a career-best 19.1 points a game during the regular season while attempting 13 shots. Adebayo had decent success against the Celtics in the regular season. The other two keys for the Heat will be defending the 3-point line and creating turnovers. Boston is averaging 14.5 turnovers a contest at home during the playoffs, which is 2.5 turnovers more than they commit on the road. However, there are a couple of key injuries to watch for the Heat, with Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable for the game.

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Best NBA Bet Today: Heat Spread (+6.0) Over Celtics


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If Miami is to have any chance of winning this game, Herro will have to be aggressive and engaged. Herro is a decent rebounder though he has seen at least 27 minutes of playing time just once in the last four games. Herro averaged 28 minutes a game in the first round and over 26 minutes in Round 2. Still, he averages 4.3 rebounds this postseason, grabbing four or more rebounds six times. Herro had eight rebounds in Game 1 of the series against the Celtics and has grabbed 5.8 caroms per game against them in five contests this season. Herro is projected for 4.19 rebounds tonight. OddsShopper gives the over a 60% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 15%.

Best NBA Bet Today: Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Rebounds


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