Through a pandemic whirlwind, the 2020 NFL regular season came and went in what felt like a cup of coffee’s duration. On the eve of the most exciting and loaded Wild Card weekend to date, we’ll see what OddsShopper has to offer for the first day of playoff festivities to begin sorting out our favored NFL betting picks. By taking into account player stats and team on-field trends from this season, we’ll seek to identify any potential soft spots in the NFL betting odds to narrow down the best values for Wild Card Saturday in the primetime matchup with the NFC Wild Card Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading to FedExField to face the NFC East Champion Washington Football Team.
[2021-New-Year-Promo]
[SportsbookAffiliates]
NFL Betting Picks: Wild Card Saturday Football
NFL Pick: WR Terry McLaurin, OVER 5.5 Receptions (-115, William Hill Sportsbook)
Say what you will about any teams under the NFC East umbrella but the Washington Football Team has done enough to get to the postseason, and much to thank is wide receiver Terry McClaurin. In his second season with the Washington Football Team, McClaurin accounted for 29.4% of the team’s 3,796 receiving yards while providing four of Washington’s 16 receiving touchdowns. Getting a player prop of 5.5 receptions with modest house juice at -115 in achieving this total seems far too inviting for McLaurin.
Regardless of the quarterback carousel between Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith this season, McLaurin has proven himself “quarterback-proof” in 2020, managing 1,118 receiving yards by hauling in 87 of 90 catchable passes for just a 3.3% drop rate. The reliance on McLaurin has become more than evident of Washington, making the conceivably low odds a bit peculiar given the very feasible reception total at hand. With running back J.D. McKissic and tight end Logan Thomas the next-in-line to threaten McLaurin’s target share, the likelihood of McLaurin securing his necessary workload against a middle-of-the-road Buccaneers secondary remains promising.
In his 15 games played this season McLaurin saw no fewer than six targets in any one game, and that season low only happening twice. Garnering as many as 14 targets in a matchup, McLaurin has no limit to his workload potential, even with consideration to his high ankle sprain in mind. Drawing the assigned defense of second-year corner Jamel Dean, McLaurin will have his work cut out for him, with Dean allowing a 63.1% catch rate to opposing receivers. Yet with the presumed target share that McLaurin’s likely to receive, especially in a game that Washington could be playing from behind in early, the proven reliability through a near-pristine catch rate throughout the regular season provides further incentive. Get the discounted odds while you can because line movement will certainly come into play here.
NFL Pick: RB Leonard Fournette, OVER 2.5 Receptions (+142, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
With a plethora of directions the Buccaneers’ offense could head this evening, running back Leonard Fournette has displayed his talents in both the receiving game as well as relief to Ronald Jones in their rushing efforts. As Fournette’s involvement comes split in both phases of the offense, he comprises 33.45% of the Buccaneers’ rushing attack when Jones is active and 9.2% of the team’s target share. Getting a player prop of 2.5 receptions inclusive of significant plus-money odds, the +142 snags immediate attention on such a low catch total.
Despite the several mouths to feed on offense, Fournette remains involved with a fluctuating workload between rushing and receiving. In regards to the passing game, Fournette has averaged 3.6 targets per game and seen as many as seven in one game. Although the Washington defense ranks second in the NFL against running backs in the passing game while allowing a 70.1% catch rate to the position, Fournette’s concerning 12.2% drop rate likely provides influence to the favorable +142 betting odds on this reception prop.
The argument for Fournette’s likelihood of hauling in three-or-more catches may not be lined with reasoning, but with game flow certainly coming into play here. Washington’s coaching staff is presumed to be picking up the textbook approach to beat Tom Brady, with the focus on pass rush and pressuring Brady a pronounced strategy of previous opponents forced to scheme against arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. The safety net of having the scatter back in a dump-off receiving role could easily pave way to increased target share for Fournette early on, while Forunette runs 92.4% of his receiving routes from the backfield.
As mentioned, these particular NFL betting odds are no guarantee by any means, yet the value remains very much intact. As such a low reception total to achieve the over is getting attractive plus-money odds, for a player like Fournette who’s proven his involvement in the passing game, it’s a wager worthy of added consideration among NFL betting picks, provided the realistic potential involved.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more Wild Card Saturday betting content, including more picks and predictions.
