Welcome to Week 5, where Thursday Night Football features two teams with winning records for the first time all season. As Tom Brady and the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into Soldier Field to take on the 3-1 Chicago Bears and Super Bowl LII archnemesis Nick Foles, we’ll have our sights set on some NFL picks for Thursday Night Football utilizing OddsShopper to identify best bets available.
Upon first perusal of OddsShopper for Thursday Night Football in Week 5, a couple of player propositions and game total have my attention with regards to yardage and value odds. We’ll take a look at some season stats and matchups while pinning some of the best values using OddsShopper for this intriguing Thursday Night battle of the NFC North and South.
* NFL Odds as of writing. Click HERE for up to date odds using the OddsShopper tool.
NFL Picks + Odds Shopping: Thursday Night Football Best Bets | Buccaneers vs. Bears
NFL Pick: TE Jimmy Graham, OVER 3.5 Receptions (+125, SugarHouse, BetRivers, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Foles era is under way in Chicago, and veteran tight end Jimmy Graham stands to benefit from the Bears quarterback change, at least evidenced by Foles’ career passing numbers. When considering his target distribution to tight ends, Foles has thrown to the position in excess of 26% of the time, roughly 10% more than that of Mitchell Trubisky. In a microcosm of their career comparison, simply looking at the Bears’ 2020 season target trends is a reflective of the attention differential paid to tight ends between one another.
In the first two weeks with Trubisky under center, Graham was targeted a combined eight times, whereas in Weeks 3 and 4, Graham was targeted 15 times total. Furthermore, Graham accounted for six and four receptions in each of the past two games, and most notably his last outing came against the top defense in the league against the tight end position in the Colts (at least on paper).
The Bears’ pass protection should be able to provide ample time for Foles to work with in the pocket against the Tampa Bay front seven, as the Buccaneers are converting sacks at a 15% rate, floating right along the lines of league average. Graham has also been involved in 68.7% of Chicago’s offensive snaps this season.
Getting this proposition at plus-money odds is a major added bonus to sprinkle on top, found at +125 on most sportsbooks via OddsShopper. Four receptions may sound a bit lofty an expectation, but given the likelihood of his target share with Foles guiding the offense, achieving the over on 3.5 catches at plus money is one of the better wagers obtainable for Thursday Night Football in Week 5.
Ben Rasa’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL Pick: Game Total, OVER 43.5 Total Points (-115, BetMGM)
While one may conjure the narrative of Brady seeking vehement eternal revenge against Foles, dashing for five more touchdowns and swiping the ring off Foles’ finger, let’s take a closer look at the potential of this transpiring. Tampa Bay is allowing 30 points per game, while Chicago is allowing 21.3 points per game with Brady averaging nearly three passing touchdowns per outing and five touchdowns last week against a Chargers team who held Patrick Mahomes and company to merely two of them. It looks good on the surface, but let’s dig deeper.
The injury report for both teams includes major offensive bullet points in Tampa’s O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin, who will be missing from action (Howard rest of the season; Achilles), while Chicago running back Tarik Cohen has been on Injured Reserve for two weeks now with a torn ACL. The remaining arsenal available to Foles will potentially be sans rookie receiver Darnell Mooney, who’s been among Foles’ favorite targets, but with everyone else expected to be actively available.
When it comes to both offensive lines, all starters are to be present, while Brady has been sacked just five times all season. The Foles/Trubisky tandem has been sacked a combined eight times, with seven of them accounted for by Trubisky, which can arguably be blamed in part to his poor decision making and lacking progressions. The healthy offensive lines intact provide additional stability for the over to hit here, especially with these quarterbacks in tow.
The line movement over the past 24 hours has been indicative of the field favoring the dnder here, down a whole point at BetMGM on -115 juice. Yet, in the words of Vintage Bill Simmons, “If the general public was considered a good bet, there wouldn’t be bookies driving Lexuses around with wreaths on the front grill.” Granted, this isn’t always entirely the case, but you get the point.
One can’t help but attempt to identify the level of Brady’s competitiveness, with the aforementioned bad taste of Super Bowl LII lingering on his palate, and for Foles likely every bit as much so (except relishing in such). With that said, I believe they will be airing the ball out with weather slated to be a clear-and-cool 58 degrees and a 43.5-point total very much within realistic reach.
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