The Eagles got a win and are now technically crazily, the division leaders. Now they face an undefeated Pittsburgh squad itching to return after an unexpected bye week. Who wins the battle for Pennsylvania? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 12 games on tap for Week 5 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Eagles -Steelers NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
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Philadelphia Eagles (19.25) at Pittsburgh Steelers (27.25) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Philadelphia Passing Game
After a nightmarish three-game stretch to begin the season, the Eagles finally found their way to the win column in Week 4, and are somehow atop of the NFC East, the minor league division of the NFL. Carson Wentz, playing with a tattered offensive line and without three of his top skill players, put up his first game of the season with total expected points added above zero. Though still in the mid-20s among quarterbacks, that is an encouraging sign for Eagles fans and fantasy gamers. While he threw a beautiful deep touchdown pass to Travis Fulgham, a practice squad call-up, in Week 4, in general Wentz kept the ball very close to the line of scrimmage. Wentz’s Week 4 average depth of target of 4.61 was by far the shortest of the season and well off from his (already mediocre) 7.2 ADOT in 2020. Without his field stretcher Jalen Reagor, Wentz worked the ball underneath en route to a paltry 210 yards passing, his lowest yardage total of the season. Wentz now ranks 22nd in passing yards per game, and with him at the helm, the Eagles rank dead last in offensive expected points per drive.
It may have been a win in the standings last week, but the advanced metrics show a team that is still struggling mightily to generate offense, and the Pittsburgh defense has a chance to exploit that this weekend. Pittsburgh as a unit ranks fifth toughest in expected points allowed per drive and second in PFF’s team defensive grade. In short, the Philadelphia passing game isn’t anywhere close to good, and the Steelers defense very much is.
The target leader in Week 4’s victory was receiver Greg Ward, his second week leading the team. Ward hadn’t even played on 45% of team snaps until Week 3, when injuries hit, and Ward’s snap share jumped to 87%. He had much better production in Week 3 against Cincinnati than he did against the 49ers, but the usage is there for Ward. It’s still early in the season, but the Steelers secondary hasn’t been quite as successful a unit as their pass rush has been. Wideouts are scoring 12.4 points more than their season averages against Pittsburgh, fourth worst in the league.
Tight end Zach Ertz continues his methodical, if unspectacular, usage. His six targets in Week 4 were a season low, but that’s likely his absolute floor, particularly with the weapons missing at receiver. His route participation percentage of 99%, second among tight ends, indicates that Ertz is still the same weapon as always, but he is simply operating in a less productive offense than in previous seasons. He ranks ninth at the position in true weighted opportunity share and remains a solid pick even as the fifth-highest tight end on the slate. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both getting in limited work as of Thursday (though Jeffery missed Thursday for illness-related reasons). If one or neither can go, it could be more of the aforementioned Fulgham or rookie John Hightower. They combined for five targets a week ago. Richard Rodgers is nowhere near the type of talent that Dallas Goedert is, but his four targets on just 35% of snaps are a sign that the Eagles will likely stick with their typical two-tight-end approach, even with Goedert on IR.
Philadelphia Rushing Game
The snap percentages for Miles Sanders since Week 2: 77%, 78%, 77%. For Boston Scott: 18%, 14%, 15%. That’s a pretty clear signal – assuming health — we know this backfield is going to break down as a 75/25 split for Sanders. As is to be expected, with so many injuries to receivers, Sanders’ target share has also been extremely steady since his return, never lower than 14% and never higher than 18%. The receiving workload is a solid addition to his 17.3 carries per game. It’s safe to say he’ll have the usage, but he doesn’t have the matchup nor the value here in Week 5. As the seventh-highest salary running back on the slate, there are likely safer options and better matchups at Sanders’ price point. At less than 7% and with rock-solid usage, he’s not the worst consideration in tournaments either.
Pittsburgh Passing Game
The Steelers return to action this week after an unexpected COVID-related bye week, now facing a very winnable matchup. Steelers fans might tell you that this is the type of game where the Steelers play down to their opponent, and I’ve already had one Steeler fan in my own circle tell me they’re prepared for the worst in what, on paper, looks like a great spot. But emotions shouldn’t guide our thinking when it comes to the passing game, led by Ben Roethlisberger, who just got an extra week to let his surgically-repaired elbow recover. Roethlisberger is back to his old gunslinger ways, sitting just 0.2 passes per game outside of the top-10 in attempts, but is just 16th in passing yards per game. Though the yardage isn’t exactly what we’d love to see, Roethlisberger has been efficient in his three starts of 2020, posting top-10 numbers in passing expected points added per game and in true drive success rate.
The Eagles aren’t a bad defense, per se, but there’s no area of the field where they are particularly dominant. They rank 13th in PFF’s overall defensive grade, but they don’t rank inside the top 10 in rush defense, pass rush or coverage. They’re giving up just slightly more than the opponent’s average fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but where we do see a leak defensively is against tight ends. The Eagles have given up nearly nine fantasy points per game over opponent average, fourth worst in the league.
That could mean big things for Eric Ebron, who tied for the team league in targets (with James Washington, of all receivers) the last time we saw the Steelers play. Ebron not only has touchdown upside in what appears to be a positive matchup, but has big-play ability in this offense as well. His average depth of target of 10.4 is higher than all but one receiver on the team. His 146 air yards are also second. At TE16 in salary this weekend, Ebron is an easy play at his price while much of the field focuses on the Steelers’ wide receivers.
Both Diontae Johnson (toe) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) haven’t been logging practices as of Thursday, so the health of the receiver corps is absolutely something to monitor. Assuming they both can play, it’s Johnson whom we should expect to have the higher workload. Still priced below Smith-Schuster, the Steelers’ leader in both true target share and air yards share, when healthy, has a chance to be peppered with targets against an Eagles squad that is dealing with a slew of injuries (cornerback Avonte Maddox and safeties Rodney McLeod and Marcus Epps) in their secondary this week. Smith-Schuster appears to be set up nicely as well, and he has certainly enjoyed the space to operate this season, ranking seventh among wide receivers in receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). He isn’t a bad bet, even though his higher salary forces slightly more difficult decisions for DFS players. Washington’s usage increased when Diontae Johnson was knocked out of the game with a concussion in Week 3. We’d only expect a full snap share for Washington if either Johnson or Smith-Schuster can’t go.
Vance McDonald and Chase Claypool are your tournament pivot plays in this matchup, and they’re both worth considering. They’ve combined for three, five and seven targets this year and air yard totals of 35, 51 and 68. McDonald is especially appealing at his $2,800 salary on DraftKings this weekend.
Pittsburgh Rushing Game
James Conner is averaging a decent 17 opportunities per game, good for 21st in the league. His efficiency metrics as a rusher grade him right around there as well, as he ranks 21st in average rush expected points added and 33rd in average receiving expected points added among all backs. Though the most likely scenario in this game involves the Steelers having the lead and aiming to run out the clock, which could mean extra usage and solid production for Conner, it’s hard to bet on that scenario when Conner’s salary is so high. According to Awesemo projections, Conner is a fade relative to salary this weekend. One positive in Conner’s favor: It’s clear that if he’s healthy, the backfield is his. After exiting Week 1 with an ankle injury, Conner has been the only running back worth considering, with Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels combining for just 9.5% and 11% of team opportunities compared with Conner’s 32%.
Prediction: Steelers 28, Eagles 27.
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