2023 American Express DFS Golf Picks, Fades & Pivots: Rickie Fowler

The American Express features a pro-am format and a unique 54-hole cut line that takes place after round three on Saturday. For DFS golf purposes, the irregular cut and the rotation of courses are something to be mindful of for golf DFS players at DraftKings and FanDuel this week. With three courses in play again, players will frequent the Pete Dye-designed TPC Stadium venue twice (once before Sunday and then again in the final round), and both the Nicklaus Tournament venue and the La Quinta once apiece.

These venues are all short par 72s, meaning length off the tee is somewhat important. The first- and second-place finishers in 2020 finished 98th and 158th in driving distance, so strokes gained on approach and short games are the focuses. For stat purposes, players here tend to have a lot of short to mid-iron approaches and plenty of birdie putts from 20 feet and in. Short-range putting (5 to 10 feet and 10 to 15 feet) and proximity (150 to 175 yards the most significant bucket) are the main focus.

Readers should heed the below DFS golf advice for their DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups. Stokastic’s expert rankings and projections can help DFS players identify the best PGA DFS golf picks for the 2023 American Express.

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PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | The American Express

This year’s field might be the strongest in this event’s existence. Nine of the world’s top 20 golfers are in the field including 2018 American Express champion Jon Rahm. Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau will also play, while Xander Schauffele (back) is in the field, but golf DFS players must monitor his status until tee off. Schauffele withdrew after two rounds in Maui and is dealing with a back issue.

Let’s get into some American Express daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

TPC Stadium Club Stats and Info

Six of the past seven winners gained three strokes or more on their approaches on their two measured rounds at TPC Stadium.
This is more of a ball striker’s venue. Distance can still factor in, but generally, controlled power is more effective due to the tighter fairways, bunkers and water in play.
Approach shots tend to be highly basketed in the 150- to 175-yard range, while fairways are more challenging to hit than normal; the field also tends to see more putts of under 20 feet as the lack of penal rough and easier layout means better access to pins.

The American Express 2023 DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Tom Kim

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 14.8% | FanDuel: 17%

Tom Kim encountered his first real hiccup on the PGA TOUR last week when he missed the cut in Honolulu for the Sony. Kim’s struggles came mostly on the greens, where he lost -6.7 strokes putting over just two rounds. Kim looked like he might blitz the course early on, but his ball striking also faded as the first two days progressed. This week is interesting for Kim, as he must turn things around with his putter because success at this event hinges on sinking short to medium putts.

There’s no doubting Kim’s talent, but much like last week, this will be the first time the South Korean will see TPC Stadium in action as a pro. The small greens and quirky setup could certainly give him a few issues. Kim also has just the third-highest scoring projection in his range this week in the Stokastic PGA model. Going with one of the higher-ranked players in his range — even if that player has high ownership — isn’t a bad idea, especially with Kim projecting for nearly 20% rostership on both major sites.

Would it be shocking to see Kim play better in Palm Springs? Not really. But since he ranks behind at least two players in the $9,000 range in Stokastic’s projections and still has higher ownership, it makes fading him a lot more attractive from a DFS strategy perspective.

High-End Pivot: Aaron Wise

Projected PGA DFS Ownership : DraftKings: 10.2% | FanDuel: 11.8%

You don’t need to bypass the entire $9,000 range this week in GPPs to be different, but if you do want a more leverage-based lineup construction, think about Aaron Wise as a second man to pair with your higher-priced starter. Wise’s salary will save you money while giving you access to a high-upside player that could draw ownership below 10% this week.

The American isn’t quite as consistent with his long game as some of the other pros, but he improved in other areas last year and has now made 10 straight cuts on the PGA TOUR. Wise looks ready to break out with a win soon, and, unlike Kim, has been around the block here several times with the PGA Tour. This year marks his sixth time competing in the American Express.

If you want to gain real leverage off a Kim fade, pivoting all the way down to the potentially under-owned Wise should prove sharp.

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Mid-Range Fade: Rickie Fowler

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 10.3% | FanDuel: 4.4%

Fowler comes into this event with an ownership projection pushing upwards of 10% on DraftKings, and that number will likely take another bump higher now that the projected range chalk in Joel Dahmen (who was $7,600) has withdrawn. Dahmen was pushing towards being 20% owned this week so Fowler will likely act as a natural pivot for a lot of lineups.

Fowler certainly showed improved ball striking over the fall but as we saw in his last outing at the CJ Cup when he lost -7.0 strokes putting for the week, a blowup with any part of his game is not out of the question. With three missed cuts in his last seven PGA starts this isn’t a player you need to dive in on at higher ownership. There are still plenty of lower-owned targets that are rating out well on Stokastic this week (see below for one of them), and many of them will come with lower ownership projections than Fowler.

Mid-Range Pivot: Justin Rose

Projected PGA DFS Ownership : DraftKings: 2.7% | FanDuel: 3.7%

Fading heavy chalk with a true low-owned pivot play is a great way to gain serious leverage in larger fields, especially if the pivot option you choose has a ceiling high enough to land you a top-five finish. Justin Rose may be on the downside of his career, but he still ranks out highly in the Stokastic projections. He even owns the exact same top-six probability as Dahmen does this week.

If the two also had similar ownership projections — or were at least close in that regard — you could definitely make a case that Dahmen’s recent form makes him the easy choice.

Unfortunately for those who prefer Dahmen to Rose, the two have a massive gap in ownership projections this week. Rose is a potential steal at a projected ownership rate below 5%. The Englishman still rates out nicely in long-term proximity and excels at putting between 5 to 10 feet. These two rank close enough in the scoring projections to render Rose a good pivot who offers tons of leverage in golf DFS.

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Mid-Range Fade: Tom Hoge

Projected PGA DFS Ownership : DraftKings: 17.9% | FanDuel: 13.5%

Hoge stands out as a pure ownership fade this week. The American finished second at this event last season. He then started 2023 nicely with a massive final round in Maui that pushed him up to fourth place.

Hoge’s recent success makes him an easy player to jam into lineups at just $8,400 on DraftKings. However, he’ll also push for close to 20% ownership on that site. Hoge’s 10.2% top-six probability rating is strong this week but isn’t enough not to consider fading him for a lower-owned option.

Mid-Range Pivot: K.H. Lee

Projected PGA DFS Ownership : DraftKings: 11.4% | FanDuel: 10.0%

This week’s deep field means we can drift off Hoge and still get access to another highly-rated player but for $100 less. K.H. Lee projects to come in 5-8% lower-owned than Hoge, which is enough to consider using him over the American, especially with how close these two are in the scoring and top-six projections.

Lee will play for the third week in a row after recording two solid finishes in Hawaii, including a 28th-place finish last week which saw his iron play improve dramatically. Lee and Hoge actually rate out very similarly in a lot of player metrics, and they’re both quite accurate from 150 to 175 yards. Both men also have decent make rates on the greens around 15 feet as well.

Notably, Lee looked a little sharper on the greens last week. Hoge even regressed as a putter. If that trend continues, you could see a huge gap in finishes between these two with Lee’s lower ownership offering a solid edge for golf DFS players.

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