PGA DFS Picks & Leverage Plays: Few Players Hotter Than Tony Finau

The PGA Tour stays out west this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Since this tournament’s inception in 1987, the Stadium Course of TPC Scottsdale (par 71, 7,261 yards, poa greens) has been the only venue to host it. After last week’s unusual 54-hole cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the Phoenix Open presents a standard cut of top 65 and ties following the first two rounds. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the Phoenix Open, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs

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PGA DFS Picks & Optimizer Plays: WM Phoenix Open

Elite drivers are the priority at TPC Scottsdale. When he took home the top prize at last year’s Phoenix Open, Scottie Scheffler finished the event top 12 in both strokes gained off the tee and driving distance, making him the third victor of this event over the last four years to do so. Stellar play on the 11 par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale is also a must to contend here. Last year, Scheffler became the third Phoenix Open champion over the last four years to lead the field in par-4 efficiency.

Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.

Tony Finau

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 2nd, FanDuel: 125th

Finau is an outstanding spend this week, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting him to be owned by only around 10% of the field. Finau is coming off a ninth-place finish at the Farmers Open, marking his eighth top-10 in his last 12 starts. Impressively, Finau picked up three wins during this run, most recently with a victory at the Houston Open less than three months ago.

He hasn’t been consistent at TPC Scottsdale, making two of seven cuts, but Finau nearly won here two years ago, when he lost to Webb Simpson in a playoff. Finau clearly has the tools to thrive at TPC Scottsdale when his game is on, which is certainly the case right now. Over his last 50 rounds, Finau is first in par-4 efficiency, seventh in strokes gained on approach, seventh in strokes gained putting, 10th in strokes gained off the tee and 14th in driving distance.

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Hideki Matsuyama

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 6th, FanDuel: 105th

With Stokastic projecting Matsuyama for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, he is one of the best GPP plays on the board. After some uninspiring play by his standards to start the season, Matsuyama looked like his old self at the Farmers Open two weeks ago, finishing ninth while gaining strokes in every major category in the process.

Matsuyama will now look to carry this momentum over to TPC Scottsdale, which is arguably his favorite venue at the PGA level. Matsuyama has five top-10 finishes in nine starts here, including back-to-back wins in 2016 and 2017. Overall, no player in this field has gained more strokes in their career at TPC Scottsdale than Matsuyama.

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Trey Mullinax

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 14th, FanDuel: 16th

TPC Scottsdale is the perfect place for Mullinax to get back on track after he disappointed at Pebble Beach last week. Ranking seventh in driving distance over his last 50 rounds, Mullinax is one of the best off-tee players on the PGA Tour, and before last week’s letdown, he had made nine of his previous 11 cuts and carded six top-25 finishes.

At TPC Scottsdale, Mullinax has made one of two cuts, finishing 15th once while ranking fourth in strokes gained off the tee in that start. Mullinax brings similar upside this week and is an elite value play for GPPs this week, with Stokastic forecasting him for essentially no ownership on either DraftKings or FanDuel.

Stewart Cink

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 8th, FanDuel: 22nd

Cink is vastly underpriced for his chances of making the cut and is a punt play that will help squeeze multiple studs into lineups. He has only missed one cut in his past six starts and has advanced to the weekend at the last four Phoenix Opens. Overall, Cink is 12-for-18 making the cut at TPC Scottsdale, with seven top-30 finishes.

Cink’s driver has been solid, gaining strokes off the tee in nine of his past 11 starts, and a top-30 finish isn’t out of the question for him in this type of form. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Cink is slated to be less than 1% owned according to Stokastic’s projections.