Tight end is one of the few positions in fantasy football that players can cobble together a starting unit with final-round picks, duck tape, and waiver wire adds. After the elite options like Travis Kelce and George Kittle are gone, there are only a few difference-makers at the position left. After that, tight end scoring tends to be flat. That means that the No. 1 tight end is much better than the No. 8 tight end but the No. 8 tight end isn’t much different than the No. 14 tight end. This allows us to use the Awesemo Strength of Schedule Tool to couple cheap tight ends with complimentary schedules in order to build a breakout tight end. Here are three combos you should be targeting with this method.
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3. Blake Jarwin & Chris Herndon
This article will feature exclusively tight ends that can be drafted outside of the first ten rounds in your average fantasy league. If you’re drafting a tight end in the early rounds, he better be someone you feel confident starting even if he faces a tough matchup.
The best way to kick off your fantasy football regular season is by burying your opponent with Blake Jarwin. He has the No. 2 easiest strength of schedule through nine weeks for players Awesemo projects to score at least five fantasy points. In that stretch, Dallas faces the four worst defenses versus tight ends from last year (Washington, Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle) plus two more bottom-12 defense. Jarwin still has to be talented to take advantage of these matchups but all signs point to him being the next breakout tight end.
Jarwin was sixth in yards per target (8.9) last year and after averaging 16.3 yards per reception in college. Seeing his playmaking ability, the Cowboys signed him to a four-year deal while letting Jason Witten–and 83 targets–walk in free agency. Jarwin might not even need benched once his schedule becomes difficult.
If his breakout isn’t permanent, Chris Herndon is ready to pick up the slack. Since 2000, Herndon’s 502 yards as a rookie are the 13th-most. He was putting up those numbers with a rookie Sam Darnold and Josh McCown as his passers. Herndon missed nearly all of his 2019 season with between a suspension and injury. Herndon was nicked up in this year’s training camp as well but he should be ready for Week 1 (check out our Live Player News Page for updates). Jets head coach Adam Gase has already announced him as the starter and Herndon has reportedly been dominant in training camp. With the Jets reeling at wide receiver, Herndon is set to step in as the second receiver in New York and close out the season with an easy strength of schedule to compliment Jarwin.
2. Eric Ebron & Mike Gesicki
This stack operates on an inside-out basis. Eric Ebron gets an easy start and finish to the season but his middle is terrifying. Ebron struggled with injuries in 2019 and the ineffective play of Jacoby Brissett beguiled him even when healthy. Looking back to 2018, when he played with Andrew Luck, Ebron was a playmaker. He was one of just three tight ends to go over 1,000 air yards and scored 12 times. That mark led all tight ends. Now he gets a similar quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger on a team that threw for 5,174 yards the last time Roethlisberger was healthy.
The middle of the year is saved for Mike Gesicki. He broke out after Preston Williams went down last year and that is a justified cause for concern. That’s why you start Ebron for a few games before confirming the greatness that is Gescki. At 6’6″ and 247 pounds, Gesicki running a 4.54 forty-yard dash puts him in the Rob Gronkowski and Vernon Davis echelon of athletes. After four top-five weeks last year, a big breakout is on the horizon for Gesicki.
No Albert Wilson ✅
No Allen Hurns ✅Mike Gesicki is both the big slot in Miami and #goodpic.twitter.com/cCEOmhxhwB
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 25, 2020
1. Ian Thomas & T.J. Hockenson
This is the same style of fit as the last stack so Ian Thomas and Ebron are interchangeable for creating a supreme strength of schedule tight end. Thomas has served as the understudy to Greg Olsen for two years so he’s only started nine games while appearing in all 32 contests of his career. Looking back at his college resume, Thomas looks like a future producer at the NFL level. He posted an above-average share of Indian’s passing production and did so on the back of 15 yards per reception. Then, at the combine, he beat the 5oth-percentile in every athletic measurable. Now he has the starting role to his own on an offense that is experiencing a seismic overhaul. They acquired Teddy Bridgewater in free agency and paired him with the architect of LSU’s historic offense, Joe Brady. Everything is pointing up for Thomas this year.
While competing with fellow first-round tight end Noah Fant for targets at Iowa, T.J. Hockeson managed to post 760 yards on 49 catches. It was his second season of college football and led the Hawkeyes. Then, in his first NFL game, Hockenson goes for 131 yards. That’s the second-most yards ever for a rookie tight end in a single game. Injuries claimed much of the rest of his season but Hockenson has been dominant at every level for multiple years. There’s no reason not to expect that to continue as he carries fantasy teams through the middle of the season.
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