With the fantasy football draft season upon us, Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker brings you his top fantasy football sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2022 Fantasy Football Season. Alex is the world’s best daily fantasy sports player, having won over $7 million since he began playing seven years ago. After graduating with a degree in mathematics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2008, he began developing advanced statistical models and applied his unique skill set first to poker, then as a full-time DFS player. Now, he’s loaning his expertise in predictive analytics to fantasy fooball.
Awesemo’s sleepers breakouts and busts tool is designed to help drafters find value in your fantasy football drafts during the mid and later rounds, while also steering you the pitfalls of poorly projected players in our rankings. The tool highlights the difference between current ADP and our rankings – giving you a look at which players provide the most and least value. You dont necessarily have to reach to take these players where they are projected in our rankings if they are going many rounds later, but a reaching round or two early from their ADP is usually a good idea. The fantasy football community doesn’t really have an exact definition of what constitutes a sleeper, or a deep sleeper, so for the purposes of this tool, theses are how sleepers, deep sleepers, busts and breakouts are defined.
2022 Fantasy Football Sleepers, Deep Sleepers, Breakouts & Bust Tool
Breakout: An established, high-level player who will exceed his prior performance and expectations (as measured by average draft position) going into the season.
Sleeper: A mid-range player who is projected to outperform his ADP.
Deep Sleeper: An end-of-draft flier who has the potential to be a diamond in the rough.
Bust: A player who is expected to underperform relative to other players in his ADP range.
The table below has a tab for each of (1) breakouts, (2) sleepers, (3) deep sleepers and (4) busts. For each player, you can see the player’s rank, his ADP and most importantly the differential between the two.
Breakouts
Sleepers
Deep Sleepers
Busts
What are Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts?
Most fantasy football fans are very familiar with terms like sleepers, breakouts and busts. But the industry has never really set out to define each term. What specifically constitutes a deep sleeper vs a regular sleeper? What percentage of points do you have to increase or decrease to be considered a bust?
Here at Awesemo we have set out to better define what fantasy football sleepers, breakouts and busts are by categorizing them in our rankings relative to their average draft position. With each set of fantasy football sleepers, busts and breakouts listed, we have created a differential column relative to their average draft position so you can see how player rank.
Awesemo’s data table allows you to compare our projections vs. the average draft position, see which players projected to bust in 2022 and which players make for great mid- to late-round steals. Breakouts are determined by how far ahead Awesemo has a player projected over his ADP. Sleepers are similar but have an ADP of 50 or lower, while deep sleepers have an ADP of 100 or lower. Busts are players that Awesemo has ranked much lower than their ADP.
Fantasy Football Breakouts
A breakout is an established, high-level player who will exceed his prior performance and expectations (as measured by average draft position) going into the season. Unlike the traditional definition of breakout, which implies a first-time record performance for a player, our breakouts are simply put in comparison relative to their average draft position. Laviska Shenault is our top breakout option for the 2022 fantasy football season, ranked 60 spots above his ADP.
Fantasy Football Sleepers + Deep Sleepers
The only difference here is how highly each player is ranked. Fantasy football sleepers are ranked from 50 to 110 in Awesemo’s rankings, while deep sleepers are ranked 110 beyond. You will find a number of under-the-radar receiver options ranking highly in the Awesemo’s sleeper score.
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