MLB DFS Quick Hits: HRs, Stacks and Ownership Plays DraftKings + FanDuel

Remember in Spaceballs when they get “the short short version” of their wedding that goes “Do you? Do you? Good, you’re married. Kiss her”? The MLB DFS version of that might be where we end up here tonight, fair warning. I wanted to at least get the home run ratings out for everyone, we’ll see what happens.

If we run short on stacks, you can find a full rundown in podcast form here on YouTube or Spreaker. Jason Floyd and I take a look at each game on the slate and give some quick early thoughts. Also make sure to check out my afternoon Stack Slants for a few additional picks. If you guys have read anything I’ve written so far, you know it’s a good bet that if I go short here I’ll go long there.

Everything on the site is great, but in my opinion, one of our best new features is our NewsGod. If you aren’t following him on the Live Blog, on Twitter or with us in chat, you’re missing out on every breaking detail and up-to-the-minute weather and lineup information. With a rainy day in a few spots tomorrow and more than a little unpredictability with news like we saw for the Reds and Marlins today, it’s more important than ever to be on top of things. Our Ol’ Pal EMac is also breaking down hitters and pitchers over in Spotlight Hitters every night, so we’ve got you covered.

Half-off, anyone? Sports are back and we’re giving you your first month of Awesemo+ half-off when you use promo code RESTART at checkout. That’s only $45 for a month of Awesemo’s leading DFS projections, tools and content for NBA, MLB, PGA and more! Celebrate the return of sports with this great deal, you won’t find a better value anywhere else. This offer is valid through Aug. 3.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman – 4.47

Baltimore Orioles: Renato Nunez – 7.17

Boston Red Sox: Mitch Moreland – 9.41

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez – 8.69

Chicago White Sox: Edwin Encarnacion – 5.06

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez – 9.76

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes – 13.28

Colorado Rockies: n/a

Detroit Tigers: C.J. Cron – 11.84

Houston Astros: George Springer – 14.25

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler – 12.76

Los Angeles Angels: n/a

Los Angeles Dodgers: n/a

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson – 8.68

Milwaukee Brewers: Justin Smoak – 7.71

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 20.25

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton – 14.67

Oakland Athletics: n/a

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen – 13.53

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds – 4.46

San Diego Padres: n/a

San Francisco Giants: n/a

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 9.47

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Yoshi Tsutsugo – 8.81

Texas Rangers: n/a

Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Shaw – 6.15

Washington Nationals: Eric Thames – 7.20

MLB DFS Picks: Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

New York Mets (4.8) at Boston Red Sox (5.8) – Suggested Stack(s): Mets 2-5

The Mets are apparently taking the bus to Boston tonight instead of flying. Maybe it’s punishment for the 14-1 shellacking they took at the hands of the Braves tonight. Regardless, these bats look to be in a good spot once they arrive in Boston with Josh Osich on the hill for the Red Sox. I like this spot more than I did on the podcast, and I’m going to keep an eye on the Mets in Awesemo’s stack rankings tomorrow.

The guys I’m eyeing up here so far are Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes as a four-man stack. I don’t love the idea of using all three outfielders on DraftKings because of how it limits other teams you can use, but Brandon Nimmo would be my primary other option here. J.D. Davis is workable as well, and Wilson Ramos is an option to drive the ball as a catcher with a strong ability to avoid the strikeout and put some occasional home run pop into it. Other than Alonso the Mets are still affordable, so you should be able to get some good bats together. We’re going to need them with this pitching.

Milwaukee Brewers (5.3) at Pittsburgh Pirates (4.3) – Suggested Stack(s): Brewers 2-6

The Brewers are pulling excellent-looking projections for me against Steven Brault here. They have several hitters who smash left-handed pitching, including Avisail Garcia. Garcia has a higher mark in every category in his slash for his career on this side of his splits and a WRC+ 19% above league average compared to his slightly below-average mark against right-handers. He brings up the rear of the stack that starts with super-duper-star Christian Yelich, who we can safely plug and play against anyone.

Second-year second baseman Keston Hiura is another of my favorite up-and-coming hitters in the league and someone that MLB DFS owners need to be aware of. In his 348 plate appearances after coming up a little way into 2019, Hiura “only” put up a line of .303/.368/.570 and created runs 39% better than league average. Hitting in the middle of this stack, he absolutely should be a part of your Brewers plans. Hopefully people will look another way after the Brewers let them down on Sunday. I’m going right back to them here.

Cleveland Indians (5.1) at Chicago White Sox (4.5) – Suggested Stack: Indians 1-4

I actually like both of these teams a ton for MLB DFS this year. You’ve seen me write up the White Sox a few times, and the Indians land right there with them as a team I’m going to keep looking to. There’s a ton to love about this team from the reasonable pricing to the positioning that allows you to play the first four hitters across your infield, leaving all of your outfield spots open to play from a team like the Yankees. They mix and match very well, and I wouldn’t leave out Franmil Reyes. On the podcast I mentioned that I think Reyes stands to compete for the league lead in home runs this season. He packs a ton of power and looks good in my home run model here. Reyes delivered on his power potential last season, crushing 39 home runs to the tune of a .261 ISO, but he still enjoys a level of anonymity that we don’t see on a power hitter of that caliber. Take advantage while you can. The price on FanDuel is a bananas $2,700, so I’ll have a ton of Reyes until it goes up.

Quick note, if you’re rolling 150 lineups and need some off-brand cheap pitching, throw a dart on Dylan Cease. He has some strikeout stuff but has never truly harnessed it and most likely isn’t going to here. But in a “you never know” kind of year, I could see him twirling six strong innings and posting a handful of cheap strikeouts. Cease has a gorgeous arsenal of pitches with a four-seamer that tops out around 97 mph, a slider that dives off the table and a curveball-changeup-sinker mix that is still developing command. Cease is already generating more swing and miss than league average with his arsenal. If he can harness it, he’ll be a front-of-the-rotation strikeout artist. This is a limited, cheap, low-owned, less-than-likely-to-succeed SP2 play, just so we’re clear.

HR Call: Pete Alonso (Mets)

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.