MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel

Welcome to the first full week of MLB DFS. I hope. This could also be the last couple days of the MLB 2020 restart experiment, given the outbreaks of COVID-19 we’re already seeing across the league. Roughly half the Marlins roster has now tested positive and the team has informed MLB that they will have to field a roster that is 50% players with no MLB experience if they are to continue the season. The Phillies, who faced the Marlins over opening weekend, are now awaiting the results of their tests and their game against the Yankees tonight has already been cancelled. The Marlins home opener was scratched as the team attempts to figure out the next step, and all 30 teams are holding a con-call this afternoon.

Stay tuned and check back with our Live Blog for the latest as we crash into the early lock this afternoon, it’s going to get weird from here.

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Our goal here is going to be a quick review of lineups in the afternoon — hopefully with some confirmed information — in the hopes of finding a different approach to some stacks or a high-quality, low-owned stack that we can exploit. We’re going to be focusing primarily on Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool as a frequent reference point. While we may land on popular builds from time to time, we’re generally going to try to be different in this space, so bear that in mind when deploying ideas you find here.

Boston Red Sox: 9-2- 3-4-5 – Bradley – Martinez – Devers – Bogaerts – Moreland

(Update: Ownership projections changed immediately after I published this piece and the Red Sox are now trending above their probability of success, which makes more sense. This is a fine stack and should be a good angle on it, but the team as a whole no longer fits in this space as an overlooked option to exploit.)

Look, I don’t want to be here talking about the Red Sox any more than you guys want to be reading about them again after what they did to MLB DFS lineups over the weekend. I even wrote up the other side of this game last night and I still like Mets bats here. But that’s the thing; going by projected team ownership in the stack tool tonight, it looks like too many of you are making the decision to ignore Boston tonight, making them a very appealing stack play.

This is a lineup that’s still loaded with quality even after losing Mookie Betts, and they can field a ton of lefty pop against a bad right-handed starter like Michael Wacha. The Sox are among the top teams on the stack tool tonight, and only J.D. Martinez is trending for significant ownership. I like to work with some of the less popular bats in this lineup like Mitch Moreland, who is currently trending for less than 2% ownership on both sites. Moreland has a career .210 ISO and WRC+ above league average for the split and has hit 146 of his 167 career home runs against right-handed pitching.

Jackie Bradley Jr. is another bat that benefits tremendously from being on the correct side of the platoon. Bradley is never going to blow anyone away in projections, but he drives the ball well, posting a career ISO 69 points higher than against lefties. These are both differentiation plays to build into Sox stacks with more popular hitters like Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi, but even a stud like Devers is drawing just 11% ownership currently on FanDuel. This is a spot to jump on again tonight, don’t let recency bias dissuade you here. The suggested stack is in play if Bradley Jr. is hitting ninth and wraps around to the top of the order, but you can mix and match well around the Devers-Bogaerts-Moreland core of under-owned quality.

Kansas City Royals (FanDuel) – 3-4-5-7 – Soler – Perez – Gordon – Franco

This one looks like a site-specific play so far. The Royals are ranked well from a probability of success perspective on both sites, but they are trending for more popularity than they seem to deserve on DraftKings right now. If we see that team ownership number drop to around or below their chances of being the top stack later in the day, we can pounce on it on that site as well. On FanDuel, the Royals are trending well under where they “should” be owned given their general projections and matchup. This is a team that won’t pop for me on most slates, but when they do I like to make sure I follow it. This is one of those days. The Royals are facing Tigers starter Michael Fulmer who hasn’t thrown a competitive inning in 22 months. The Tigers don’t expect to give him more than three innings, which means the Royals will get to feast on the lowly Tigers bullpen. Fulmer’s quality will be a major question for the first part of the game as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get pounded.

The Royals power primarily comes from Jorge Soler in the heart of the lineup with returning catcher Salvador Perez providing some quality protecting Soler in the lineup. Perez is a great catching option for fantasy and MLB DFS purposes and is someone that should be in most of your Royals stacks here. Perez’s .201 ISO projection from Steamer is quality for a catcher, while the .304 ISO mark posted by Soler in 2019 would have been good for the Incredible Hulk. Helping these two from later in the lineup is righty Maikel Franco, who I expect will be the forgotten member of this power trio. We currently have Franco projected for under 2% ownership on both sites. 2019 ended Franco’s run of seasons with 20 or more home runs after three years, but he only saw 428 plate appearances and still managed to hit 17. Franco’s best asset is his ability to put the ball in play with just a 15.6% career strikeout rate in this split. He’s someone I want to connect on the bottom end of Royals stacks tonight. The suggested stack includes Soler, Perez, Franco and Alex Gordon. Feel free to mix and match with Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield up top as well. The hit tools and speed set the table for the other sluggers well.

Chicago White Sox – 2-4-5-6-7 – Moncada – Grandal – Encarnacion – Jimenez – Robert

The high-quality White Sox lineup looks about half as popular as it should be on both sites right now after originally opening on our board as more of a DraftKings play. Keep a close eye on where team ownership goes with this one. If you’ve been following along so far, you already know this is a team I’m all over in 2020. There are a ton of bats to love in this lineup and if they’re going under in a matchup against a starter like Aaron Civale, I want a lot of them.

Civale is “fine,” perhaps even a little better than that, but he’s no one to shy away from when making MLB DFS lineups. On a night like tonight where pitching is awful and options are limited, the White Sox may see reduced ownership just because people are forcing Civale in, I want to be on the other side of that. New White Sox catcher Yasmani Grandal absolutely smokes right-handed pitching, posting a .213 ISO and WRC+ 19% above league average against them over his career. Grandal should be hitting in the middle of this lineup tonight, and the guys around him are absolutely loaded. The power provided by Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu can’t be ignored here, Yoan Moncada is a stud hitting above them, and the pair of rising former top prospects hitting in the back-end of the order has a ton of appeal. Eloy Jimenez hitting sixth in your lineup is a Yankees-like luxury for a baseball team. MLB DFS owners know Jimenez by now, but he’s still only trending around 1% ownership in our projections. Luis Robert is a name the public is still sleeping on, judging by his ownership over the weekend and in our projections. This is a kid who would be priced up around the $5,000 mark on DraftKings right now if we were in late July of a full season.

Since signing for $5 million as an international free agent before taking a single at-bat in domestic professional baseball, Robert posted a WRC+ more than 66% above league average across all of his stops as he rocketed through the White Sox system in just two seasons. I include this only because I don’t remember seeing a number like it before, and it’s amusing. In his bare bones 19-game sample starting 2019 in high-A last season, Robert put up a WRC+ of 305, which is 205% better than league average. This is a kid that every major projection system has pegged for over a .200 ISO as a rookie. He’ll strike out plenty and we’ll see some growing pains for sure, but when no one is on him and he’s 30% too cheap in salary, I want to be loading up.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.