MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel

I’ll admit, I always feel better about these things when I open the top stacks tool and see that the two teams I wrote up from my model as chalky good stack options in Quick Hits the night before are also near the top of Awesemo’s board. That’s the case with the Tigers and Cubs tonight, so hit that column for the full takes on a quality option and a strong value team in a great spot. I’m surprised that the Tigers aren’t pulling a larger ownership share, they are very affordable and in a good spot, they should stack well with some of the big pricey teams on the board tonight.

Several of those big pricey teams are going under-owned once again and we have a Coors game to contend with. That one is drawing a ton of popularity today, the matchup is one that should yield a fairly high total so it makes sense. I think we have enough to get away from Coors and get different today though.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 11

Chicago White Sox – Pick Em

The White Sox qualify for this space basically every day lately. The team is incredible but expensive, if you can make the salaries work you can stick in bats from up and down this lineup. Focus on the tightly correlated hitters close to one another in the lineup and figure out the best construction you can get to. The top seven hitters are over $5,000 on DraftKings, the top eight have home run marks above 10 in my model in their matchup against poor Michael Fulmer. We’ve covered this team enough that you know the plays and we have a few other looks to get into. Fire at will.

Houston Astros – 1-2-4-5-7 – George Springer – Alex Bregman – Yuli Gurriel – Kyle Tucker – Josh Reddick

I was a little ways into writing up the Dodgers side of this one in their matchup against lefty power-outage Framber Valdez. The erstwhile Brooklyn Bums rank in a good spot on the stacks board and they’re trending to go about half as owned as they should, I’ll definitely get to some Dodgers tonight. The reason I moved off of them as the recommended play in this spot is largely about the lefty-lefty matchups against a pitcher who habitually suppresses power. Valdez has allowed just three home runs this season in 52.1 innings and is currently inducing groundballs at a rate over 60%. The flyball hitting Dodgers could certainly get to the kid here, but they have a collective team ISO of just .139 against lefties with a WRC+ five percent below average on the season.

The Astros, on the other hand, sit 10th in baseball with a .205 ISO against southpaws. Their WRC+ is 13% above average in the split this season and if we extend the sample to the start of 2018 the active roster is second to only the Yankees in this split with a .206 ISO. Their WRC+ 27% above average is best in baseball over that sample. Dodgers starter Julio Urias is a talented lefty who is still harnessing his abilities. Urias is pitching relatively well, he has a 4.48 xFIP over his 37.1 innings in 2020 and a 4.21 mark over 221.1 innings in his career. His strikeout rate is down from 26% to 22% so far this season. He’s essentially swapped the usage on his slider and curveball, which could be the culprit, the slider has traditionally been a better swing and miss pitch for him. The changes have also resulted in a lower walk rate so far this season, so it could be a good overall sacrifice. Still, the spot looks solid for the Houston bats and they’re trending under-owned on both sites.

The lineup kicks off with star outfielder George Springer who has had an up and down season compared to his usual quality. Springer is sitting at just .234/.344/.460 on the year, with eight home runs and a WRC+ 22% above average. His price is down to just $4,600 and he makes a great first click in Astros stacks today. The right-handed bat has a .223 ISO with a WRC+ 36% above average against lefties since the start of 2018.

The Houston lineup got a big bump when Alex Bregman came back from the injured list earlier in the week. The all-world third baseman has made 116 plate appearances so far in 2020 and has a .250/.353/.460 slash with a .210 ISO and a WRC+ 24% above average with just four home runs. Still, we know the quality of player we’re paying a full $5,100 for here and I have no problem doing it. In 690 plate appearances in 2019, Breman hit 41 home runs and had a .296 ISO. There’s nothing wrong with the bat and he’s crushed lefties for a .315 ISO over the past two-plus years in our sample.

Michael Brantley hits lefties relatively well, though not for much power. The outfielder has just a .107 ISO against fellow southpaws since the start of 2018, with a WRC+ five percent below average with a .276/.333/.383 slash. He’s playable here but the usual upside will be more difficult to reach. The ownership is treating him as if he’ll be hitting without a bat however, which is also wrong. I can work with some very low owned Brantley at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

The always underrated Yuli Gurriel is another killer option at just $4,000 slotting in at first base. The power in his bat is real and he gets it against lefty pitching, with a .290/.346/.523 slash, a .283 ISO and a WRC+ 35% above average in the split since the start of 2018. The older Gurriel brother ranks third on the team in that sample with 18 home runs against lefties in his 396 plate appearances.

Kyle Tucker is tied for first on the team in 2020 with four home runs against left-handed pitching so far on the season. The lefty outfielder is having a breakout season and meeting his high expectations so far in 2020. Overall, he’s carrying a .260/.314/.544 slash with eight home runs and a .285 ISO. The kid is driving every ball he makes contact with and is trending under one percent ownership at just $4,700. Let the public sweat the same handed matchup, I’ll happily take on some Tucker shares here.

The right-handed quality provided by Carlos Correa at the shortstop position should also not be overlooked from later in the Astros lineup. The slugger has had an ok season but the power has been out a bit more than expected. Correa is at .284/.351/.413 for the year with just a .129 ISO, though his WRC+ 12% above average works for MLB DFS purposes here and he’s affordable for him at $4,700.

Josh Reddick is in the projected lineup hitting seventh, he could be a sneaky low-owned option for us in the same-handed matchup. Over the last two-plus seasons, Reddick has 13 same-handed home runs and ranks fifth in the team in the category against southpaws. His .287/.341/.497 split and .209 ISO over the sample are excellent and we can build the lefty into our lineups with confidence for just $2,600. The ownership trending under one percent is an absolute mistake by the public in this spot on a discounted bat, take advantage in your Astros builds.

Martin Maldonado is fine as a mix and match catcher play on DraftKings where he costs just $4,000 and is pulling no ownership. At $2,500 on FanDuel I’m not entirely sure he’s necessary. The catcher has four home runs in 125 plate appearances this season and is capable in the split with a .161 ISO and eight home runs in his 206 plate appearances since the beginning of 2018. Jack Mayfield is also in the projected lineup, which is the most we really need to say about the infielder here.

Cleveland Indians – 1-5 – Francisco Lindor – Cesar Hernandez – Jose Ramirez – Carlos Santana – Franmil Reyes

If you saw Live Before Lock last night you probably heard me say that I’ve come around on the Indians maybe not being so good in general. While they’re most definitely not living up to overall expectations, this is still a very high quality option for MLB DFS purposes given their lineup construction and current pricing. The matchup against Rich Hill is a good one, the veteran lefty doesn’t have a ton left in the tank and the Indians profile better against southpaws than in the right-handed pitching split we were looking at during the show.

The Indians active roster is sitting 15th in baseball with a .173 ISO and they’re above average with a 103 WRC+ since the start of 2018. The active roster is eighth in baseball with 134 home runs in the split in the sample, but they’ve struggled through 2020 so far and I’m not finding a good reason why. If we’re chalking it up to baseball happenstance then we can roll the Indians with some confidence. If we think something legitimately changed or the league has figure out how to pitch against these guys resulting in their lowly .135 ISO in the split this season, then we have some concerns. I’m rolling with the bats here.

The Indians start the lineup with a great quartet for MLB DFS that we’ve touched on a number of times in this space and on shows. The first four hitters in the daily lineup are switch hitters and they fill out around the horn in the infield, with mostly star-quality bats. The “worst” of the bunch is Cesar Hernandez who has been an excellent option for 10-15 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases over the past five seasons. The second baseman hits in the two-hole in this lineup, which is a bit of an odd construction that we can question in another space. At just $4,200 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, he’s very much in play.

Francisco Lindor leads off for $5,500 at the shortstop position. He’s the class of the league at a very high-end spot most seasons, though he’s not atop the board in any individual categories for shortstops in 2020, with his .274/.337/.447 slash and .173 ISO. Still, his WRC+ is north of league average by nine percent and we’re getting him at under five percent ownership. This is a spot I want to cash in on, Lindor is third on the team with 17 home runs in our two-plus year sample against southpaws, he has a .302/.381/.496 slash and a WRC+ 32% above league average. You’re going to need to do better than some recent struggles to talk me off of Lindor here.

Carlos Santana and Jose Ramirez provide some pop on the corners at first base and third base respectively. The duo becomes affordable when taken with an average price of $4,700, thanks to Santana’s generous $3,800 tag. The first baseman is scuffling this season with just a .195 average on his baseball card, but he’s still getting on base at a .356 clip and setting the table for the hitters behind him. The power hasn’t been totally out but the lights are definitely flickering, he has just five home runs in his 194 plate appearances and a .117 ISO, which is way out of character. Santana has a .215 ISO and a WRC+ 36% above average against lefties over the sample since the 2018 season began, he’s fine.

Ramirez provides high-end power and speed in an elite combination for MLB DFS. The third baseman brings it on both sides of the plate, against southpaws he’s got a .227 ISO and a WRC+ 19% above average over our sample and he’s right on pace in his counting stats in 2020 with 10 home runs and nine stolen bases over his 190 plate appearances.

The big power in this lineup comes in five-hole with one of my favorite home run hitters in the league, Franmil Reyes. Reyes has eight bombs on the season in his 179 plate appearances and the rest of his line is well higher than expected with a .304/.369/.509 slash, a .205 ISO and a WRC+ 34% above average. If the rest of the Indians lineup was firing on all cylinders like Reyes this team would have no worries. At just 0.6% ownership on DraftKings and a $4,300 salary, I have no worries about rostering him.

Following up Reyes in the projected lineup we’ve got Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado and Roberto Perez. Either outfielder is fine as a mix and match right-handed bat against a lefty starter here, though neither has an impressive stat line to discuss at the moment. They are very inexpensive and can help make things work to get to better pitching or a bigger bat in your stack. Perez is interesting at just $3,200 and drawing no ownership at the catcher spot. He’s struggled through most of 2020 with just at .177/.282/.242 slash over his 71 plate appearances, but the backstop did hit 24 home runs in 449 plate appearances in 2019 and has a .184 ISO and a WRC+ five percent above average in 211 plate appearances against lefties dating to the start of 2018. I can get some low-owned Perez in at catcher in Indians stacks today.

Delino Deshields provides some interesting speed from the bottom of the lineup. He’s gotten on base at just a .325 clip against lefties since the start of 2018, but he has 14 stolen bases against southpaws over that time, putting him in play in extremely limited fashion as a wraparound option here.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.