NBA Player Props: Is it Sharp to Fade Nikola Jokic Tonight? (March 6)

March Madness is almost here, and bettors looking to build up their basketball betting bankroll before the tournament have little time left to do so. Today’s relatively short NBA card can be easy to gloss over with so much meaningful college basketball in store — even the best bettors may let the sharpest NBA player props slip through their fingers. The below Nikola Jokic player prop stands out as especially easy to miss.

Enter Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props for Monday.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 6

Matisse Thybulle Prop O/U 1.5 Steals

The Portland Trail Blazers acquired Matisse Thybulle before the deadline, and the defensive specialist has seen plenty of action for his new team. Thybulle is averaging 30.8 minutes and 2 steals per game in Portland and is yet to go a game without at least one steal.

The books are making a mistake by pricing the over at only -115. NBA Bet Pro projects Thybulle for 2.5 assists tonight, giving this prop an expected win rate of 60%, far better than its implied odds of 53.5%. Only two other plays on today’s board have comparable EV, and to find them, subscribe to NBA Bet Pro!

Best NBA Player Prop: Matisse Thybulle Over 1.5 Steals (-115) at DraftKings

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Trendon Watford Prop O/U 4.5 Rebounds

Another Trail Blazer, Portland’s Trendon Watford has seen an increased role with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined. The second-year forward has averaged 23.6 minutes and 4.3 rebounds per game since the All-Star Break and has gone over this number in three of his last four games.

Watford should benefit from the matchup against the tanking Detroit Pistons. He’s likelier to see a few extra minutes and nab a few extra boards. NBA Bet Pro has Watford reeling in 5.5 rebounds, giving this play an expected win rate of 57% on BetMGM. Readers who are new to BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance from the book.

Best NBA Player Prop: Trendon Watford Over 4.5 Rebounds (-120) at BetMGM

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Nikola Jokic Prop O/U 10.5 Assists

The Serbian Superstar has a tough matchup with the Toronto Raptors tonight. The Raptors have forced the second-most turnovers per game this year and harass opposing ball handlers with frequency. That could prevent Jokic from racking up the assists this evening.

NBA Bet Pro has Jokic falling short of a triple-double and dishing out only 9.3 assists tonight. This play has an expected win rate of 59%, slightly better than the implied odds you’ll find at Caesars Sportsbook (57.5%). Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the book for up to $1,250!

Best NBA Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Assists (-135) at Caesars

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.