High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Rudy Gobert Worth The Flyer

Saturday features a very small four-game slate with limited pay-up options. This slate feels like a great opportunity for a balanced lineup build, which is what we will target tonight. Make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page in case any slate-breaking news pops up. This article features two boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the small slate, starting with Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Boom: Rudy Gobert: $6,900 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel

52.2% DraftKings Boom/41.3% FanDuel Boom

Despite losing Karl-Anthony Towns, the Minnesota Timberwolves looked great last game getting revenge on the Memphis Grizzlies after they knocked them out in the first round of the playoffs last season. With no Towns for the next 4-6 weeks, expect an increase in production for center Rudy Gobert. He didn’t look good last game as he dealt with foul trouble, but this is a bounce back spot against the Thunder who can’t stop any bigs. Gobert has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He may be struggling lately, but this is such a great matchup for Gobert.

The Timberwolves actually have four of the top six players on DraftKings in the Boom/Bust tool, but Gobert is leading them all at what seems like a great price tag at $6,900. The Thunder rank 27th in rebounding percentage this season as Gobert ranks third in the league averaging 11.8 rebounds per game. They also rank 27th in points allowed in the paint at 53.5 per game. A double-double should be a lock for Gobert in this spot tonight. Despite the low salary, Gobert ranks sixth on both DraftKings and FanDuel for being the highest projected scorer on the slate in our Stokastic projections. Go balanced with Gobert.

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NBA DFS Boom: Trendon Watford: $3,700 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel

48.1% DraftKings Boom/43.6% FanDuel Boom

The Trail Blazers are decimated with injuries as they have lost seven of their last eight games after a scorching hot start. Damian Lillard, Keon Johnson, and Nassir Little are out, while Josh Hart is doubtful and Drew Eubanks is questionable. That will open the door for Trendon Watford to move into the starting lineup. Watford drew his first start of the season last game and finished with a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double and 24.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes. He is projected to play 30.9 minutes tonight and is the best value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our Stokastic projections.

This is a very intriguing matchup as the Utah Jazz had also been struggling, but have won back-to-back home games to right the ship. They are 4.5-point home favorites as this game total has elevated to 228 points. The Jazz rank in the bottom 10 in defensive rating and top 10 in pace this season making this an exploitable matchup. There is a chance for another Watford double-double as the Jazz rank middle of the pack in rebounding percentage as well. Playing this many minutes, Watford can easily pay off this salary. He has the second-highest boom percentage on both sites making him an elite salary saver if he starts.

Bet $5 on the NBA tonight and get $150 if your first pregame moneyline wager wins!

NBA DFS Bust: Paolo Banchero: $8,200 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel

60.0% DraftKings Bust/55.2% FanDuel Bust

The worst team to target on this small four-game slate is the Orlando Magic. They are implied for a slate-low 103.5 points as they are double-digit road favorites against the Toronto Raptors. An absolute brutal matchup for the Magic who have the worst record in the league this season at 5-18. The Raptors rank seventh in defensive rating this season, while allowing only 109.3 points per game. Our fade will be going to the top of the Magic pecking order with rookie phenom Paolo Banchero. At these prices, Banchero is an easy fade as he has one of the highest bust percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

There are only two players on this slate that have a B grade and a D value on DraftKings and a B grade and C value on FanDuel in our NBA DFS Rankings. That would be Banchero and Thunder combo guard Josh Giddey. If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out again, Giddey’s stock immediately rises so we’ll stick with the Banchero fade. It is alarming how bad all of the Magic players look in our Stokastic projections from a value standpoint. There is no way to justify paying this type of ceiling salary for Banchero in this matchup. He may be the Rookie of the Year favorite, but we’ll fade him in this spot tonight.

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