NBA DFS Leverage & Optimizer Picks: Kevin Huerter & Dennis Smith Jr.

After a wild nine-game Friday slate, Saturday’s six-game slate looks a lot calmer — especially with regard to injuries. This article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including Dennis Smith Jr. and Kevin Huerter, to help you build optimal NBA DFS lineups.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 21

In a rare case of the slate’s top overall play also being the top leverage play, Dennis Smith Jr. couldn’t look any better in his matchup with the Hawks. While Smith is projected to be 52.9% owned on DraftKings, he’s still coming in way under-owned, and, as of this writing, he looks like one of the top options DFS players can look to for leverage.

Matched up against an Atlanta team that will play on the second half of a back-to-back, Smith should see all the minutes he can handle tonight with LaMelo Ball likely out with an ankle sprain. After Ball got hurt on Wednesday, Smith played 29 minutes as the Hornets’ clear top point guard. DSJ costs only $4,000 at DraftKings and looks like a free square in all formats

While he’s more expensive on FanDuel at $5,700, Smith still isn’t getting nearly enough love. He owns the highest optimal percentage of any player on the slate. With Charlotte a 7.5-point-favorite in a game with a 235-point total, Smith is a building-block type tournament play. He is currently projected to be optimal a whopping 61.6% of the time on DraftKings and 40.5% of the time on FanDuel. That means he offers strong leverage on both sites.

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Kevin Huerter is another player who is flying way under the radar tonight. Priced at $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,100 on FanDuel, Huerter is barely getting love on either site. That puts him right there with DSJ as a top leverage play for this evening.

While Huerter isn’t in the greatest spot, as he’ll face the defensive-minded 76ers, Huerter is still projected to be optimal 20.3% of the time on DraftKings and 16.9% of the time on FanDuel. Despite his high optimality percentages, NBA DFS players are forgetting about Huerter on both sites, as he is projected to be only 12.4% owned on DraftKings and 8.2% owned on FanDuel. Like Smith, Huerter is more of a solid player than a spectacular one, but he offers surprisingly good leverage on both sites, and there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments tonight.

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On the other side, Damion Lee rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading. At only $4,800 on DraftKings, Lee is projected to find himself in 19.6% of lineups with an optimality percentage of only 5.5%.

Lee’s affordable price and strong recent production will make him a popular value tonight, but with other value players like Jaylen Nowell and Jalen Smith going under-owned, it might be wise to avoid him in large-field tournaments.

Situations to Monitor

Plenty of big-name players are questionable for tonight’s action. They include Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Anthony Edwards, Donovan Mitchell, Chris Paul and Rudy Gobert. The slate could change entirely if just one of them sits out.

NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock show on YouTube at 6 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.

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Author

Matthew Belman

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.