On the schedule for Tuesday is a five game slate – including three totals over 230 points – and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Dec. 13.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 13
High-End Tier
No stud above $10K is expected to be overly popular tonight, leaving it up to the DFS who they want to build around. In Stokastic’s projections, Joel Embiid is without a doubt standing out as the best choice. The center is on a tear right now, scoring 65.7 DraftKings PPG across his last 10 starts. As the NBA’s leader in usage rate this season (38.5%), Embiid is providing 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Tonight, the center will be at home – where he has notably been 13 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road this season – and facing a Kings’ club that ranks sixth in pace and is yielding the sixth most points in the paint this season. This game’s total is set at 229 points and in totals of at least 220 points at home this season, Embiid is contributing 57.5 DraftKings PPG (six games).
Having some exposure to Anthony Davis also needs to be a priority tonight. Excluding on December 6th, when the bigman exited after only seven minutes due to an illness, Davis has been spectacular, averaging 61 DraftKings PPG with a 34.2% usage rate in his last 12 full starts, including five showings over 70 DraftKings points. For tonight, Davis will be back home after a six-game road trip, going against a Celtics’ club that is on the second leg of a back-to-back and will remain without Al Horford (personal) and Robert Williams (knee). Boston has struggled mightily inside with these two bigs unavailable and Davis has enormous upside in this slate-high total (235.5 points). In Stokastic’s projections, Davis is only hovering around 10% projected ownership for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
With Devin Booker (hamstring) out and the Suns in a great spot vs. the Rockets, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton are both expected to be chalky on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. Despite their popularity, both Paul and Ayton are tough fades tonight, especially on DraftKings, where they are vastly underpriced for this situation. With Booker off the floor this season, Paul’s usage and assist rates have increased 2.8 and 6.7 percentage points, respectively, while Ayton’s usage has seen a 1.6 percentage point boost, lifting him to 1.3 DraftKings PPM. In Stokastic’s projections, Paul and Ayton are both rating as top-five values on the slate for DraftKings.
Value Tier
As the expected replacement starter for Booker, Dario Saric is projected to be the most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. While the veteran is tempting at his near minimum price tags, fading Saric makes sense with nearly half the field expected to roster him tonight. Getting the start for Booker on Sunday, Saric disappointed with 12.75 DraftKings points in only 21 minutes of work vs. the Pelicans. The forward’s low playing time wasn’t due to foul trouble and Damion Lee closed the game with the starters over Saric. Especially on DraftKings, where Lee is only slightly more expensive, making a direct pivot to him off Stairs is right call, with Stokastic anticipating him to come with half the ownership. Lee logged a season-high 33.5 minutes Sunday with Booker inactive, en route to 21.25 DraftKings points. Lee produces 0.8 DraftKings PPM with Booker off the floor and has topped 20 DraftKings points in 12 of the 18 games he has received over 20 minutes this season.
While forecasted for around 20% ownership on both sites, Malcolm Brogdon is a no-brainer in this slate-high total vs. the Lakers (235.5 points). In these last three without Horford, Brogdon has benefited from the Celtics using more small ball lineups, scoring 30 DraftKings PPG. With Horford off the floor this season, Brogdon has recorded 1.2 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage rising 1.9 percentage points to 26.6%, which ranks third on the team, only trailing Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown. Additionally, from Boston, Blake Griffin continues to be a slept-on value play that needs to be included in your player pool. As the Celtics’ starting center with Horford and Williams sidelined for the last four, Griffin has collected 24 DraftKings PPG. Going against Davis, Griffin should be forced to play at least 25 minutes tonight, which is plenty of time for him to beat his low salaries. Griffin is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and is forecasted for only 1% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. Combine his low expected ownership with his ceiling that is over 20 fantasy points and Griffin is rating as a top-six option on the slate in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Situations to Monitor
If Jrue Holiday (questionable, illness) sits tonight, Jevon Carter would likely start and be an appealing punt in this projected shootout with the Warriors, that carries the second highest total on the slate (233.5 points). With Holiday off the court this season, Carter is averaging 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 18.7% usage rate. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton would also receive bumps if Holiday is inactive and be compelling targets in this marquee matchup with the defending champs. Specifically, Middleton’s usage increases 4.1 percentage points with Holiday off the floor this season, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM and he may get slightly overlooked after exiting early in his last start. On the other hand, if Holiday suits up, he shouldn’t be overly popular and will be a strong GPP play. Golden State ranks second in pace and Holiday has scored at least 45 DraftKings points in five of his last six starts.
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