NBA DFS Picks: Value, Stud & Fade on August 12

NBA Bubble action is underway, and with it comes NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Wednesday’s slate.

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Value Pick: Kyle O’Quinn

DraftKings $3,000, FanDuel $3,500, Yahoo $10, SuperDraft 2x

Priced at the minimum salary across all DFS sites, O’Quinn makes for a fantastic value play. Starting at center yesterday, he came one point shy of a triple-double. Oddly, O’Quinn got over 10 assists before picking up 10 rebounds, playing in a facilitator role in the 76ers’ offense. On DraftKings, this performance produced 45 fantasy points which is easily his best mark of the season. That performance is a bit of an outlier, although O’Quinn is always a good per-minute fantasy producer who rarely gets minutes. When unleashed, big fantasy performances usually come with him.

Coming into today, there is reason to think the 76ers play O’Quinn big minutes again. This is the second leg of a back-to-back for Philadelphia, and the team listed numerous players on the injury report. Joel Embiid (ankle), Tobias Harris (ankle) and Al Horford (knee) are all questionable to play. If a couple or all of them can’t play, look for O’Quinn to draw back into the starting lineup. Unfortunately, he needs to starts to have fantasy value, so take him out of the player pool if injuries don’t break his way.

Stud Pick: James Harden

DraftKings $11,100, FanDuel $10,800, Yahoo $55, SuperDraft 1x

Once again, Russell Westbrook is sitting out today. This is the third time in the last four games the Rockets will play without their star point guard. The last two times he sat, Harden went off for monster fantasy games. In those contests, he averaged 67 DraftKings fantasy points. Of course, this is nothing new for Harden; he’s crushed all season without Westbrook on the court. When Westbrook is on the sidelines, Harden carries a 43.5% usage rating and scores 43.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes.

While predicting minutes for star players is tough at this point in the season, there is reason to think Harden will play close to his normal minutes. For starters, the Rockets rarely take him off the court even in blowout scenarios. Harden played under 30 minutes just four times all season. In addition, there is still something on the line. In a best-case scenario, Houston could move up to the three seed, and in a worst-case scenario, the Rockets could finish as the six seed.

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Fade Pick: Fred VanVleet

DraftKings $7,300, FanDuel $7,000, Yahoo $28, SuperDraft 1.45x

Speaking of motivation, there is no reason for the Raptors to go all out tonight. Locked into the two seed in the East, there is nothing for Toronto to gain or lose regardless of today’s results. For this reason, it’s unlikely to me that any of the Raptors’ core players will get much playing time. Of all the players on the roster, VanVleet makes for the weakest play. Not only is he not likely to play big minutes, he is also at his highest salaries during the restart. If possible, I try to make lineups focused on cheap starters or players on teams with something to play for. I will fade guys like VanVleet and Kyle Lowry.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.