It’s a New Year and a new us here as we aim to start 2020 with some fire NBA DFS picks. You can expect some teams to operate today with the same physical and emotional hangovers you or I experienced from a couple of days of revelry. But we have a nine-game NBA DFS slate, our largest weekday slate in a few weeks, and there are lots of injuries and moving pieces to discuss. There are also some tough defensive matchups that may not have a lot to consider. It won’t be easy sledding but I’m bound and determined to kick off 2020 on the right foot so let’s get into everything I see so far with the Jan. 2 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
Be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise, let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
Will Sacramento Ever Be Trustworthy?
The Kings get a 9.8-point boost on their season average from Vegas in a game with a slate-high 225.5 combined total. Memphis plays at a slate-high 105.3 pace with a poor 109.7 defensive rating. Buddy Hield has performed better from a fantasy perspective after many disappointing efforts thanks to an increase in his assists over the last few games and some slightly more effective shooting. I don’t mind going back to him in the hopes he’s figured something out. De’Aaron Fox also looks comparably good and his 38% assist rate on the year likely provides him with a better floor. Both guys should benefit from the pace and lack of defense that will open up more scoring and assist upside.
The other guys in the rotation also look fine but would be less of a priority for me. Nemanja Bjelica will see more secure minutes thanks to Marvin Bagley out. Harrison Barnes also sees steady run while Richaun Holmes will have a tough rebounding matchup but could certainly excel without another big there to meaningfully take opportunity away. Sacramento has been disappointing so often this year but this situation is a very strong one to kick of 2020 on the right foot for them and us NBA DFS players.
Ja Morant’s price is appealing against Sacramento’s weak 108.2 defensive rating. Dillon Brooks also looks like decent value with his price down. Jonas Valanciunas could have some upside if Sacramento throws up a ton of bricks but he’s only seen 30 or more minutes once in the last 13 games, something that can cramp the unquestionable upside he has. Memphis is fine but it’s a pace-down against Sacramento’s 99 pace so it’s not a situation to load up on.
Christian Wood Chalk Day V2?
Christian Wood was somewhat disappointing despite the huge value he represented against Utah last time out with no Markieff Morris or Blake Griffin available. His price is up but he should get a similar chance for opportunity with the same situation again. Wood saw somewhat extended minutes in the second half with 16 compared to 11 in the first half. It’s hard to know what to expect with a smaller Clippers lineup. If Wood’s ownership comes down from the 30% expected from or if he somehow picked up the start, I’m willing to go there more.
Bruce Brown looks like a solid play with Griffin and Luke Kennard’s ongoing absences. He had 37 minutes with a poor 1-for-6 shooting day against Utah. Andre Drummond also seems fine at center even though his price is still just a bit high. Without Griffin, he can do whatever he wants and this matchup against Los Angeles’ centers is much less oppressive than it was versus Utah when he still had 49.8 fantasy points.
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The Clippers’ side also looks solid against Detroit’s weak 109.6 defensive rating. Montrezl Harrell is entirely too cheap and his size should be needed a bit more in this game even though he still won’t be much of a match for Andre Drummond. Neither will Ivica Zubac but he’s also fairly cheap and his size would give him that same chance. Lou Williams is cheap and should be decently rested after he missed last game. And of course, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard should be able to get any shots they want against Detroit and both will see even more assist upside thanks to the lack of Patrick Beverley. I don’t have an issue with any of these guys but I’d be more inclined for the cheaper Williams and Harrell.
NBA DFS Chalk Jalen Brunson Seems Iffy
Jalen Brunson picked up the start with Tim Hardaway sidelined last game. Brunson is cheap and has had monster days this year with 38.25-fantasy-point upside. The issue is that those games came without Luka Doncic in the lineup. Brunson lost minutes to Seth Curry in their last game as the two split 48 minutes. He also only had nine shot attempts overall despite the absence of Kristaps Porzingis. I’m not the most confident in him as chalk despite the value he represents. I’d be more inclined to pay the higher price for Maxi Kleber if Porzingis were to miss again. Kleber saw 35 minutes with 10 shot attempts and 14 boards without him last game.
Doncic looks fine as usual in this game but the price is high enough that the field’s 11% expected ownership seems about right to me. It’s a fairly defensively sound Nets team but they play at a high enough pace that Doncic would have decent upside, especially if Porzingis misses. Doncic had 29 shot attempts against a lower paced Thunder team without Porzingis last time out.
I never have a real issue with Spencer Dinwiddie on the other side but the rest of the game looks meh. Dallas plays with a lower pace and a middling 106 defensive rating so Dinwiddie will likely have to create even more than usual for himself and the rest of the Nets.
An Overlooked Potential Gem In Cleveland
I tend to feel like the opportunity that comes from playing Cleveland is overlooked. Their low 101 pace stinks but their 112.4 defensive rating has allowed many teams completely unfettered opportunity to go off. I’d particularly think the situation gives a solid chance to Charlotte’s two ball-dominant guards in Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier. Graham’s price is up but any time he’s around 5% owned as he’s currently projected he intrigues me. And while Rozier has had slightly lower usage and assist rates, he remains highly involved enough to spike upside at his current price.
Cleveland’s bigs should also have a decent matchup inside with Charlotte offering one of the best interior opportunities to centers. I’d favor Kevin Love with him having just gone for 50 fantasy points against Charlotte a few weeks ago. Tristan Thompson’s price is so high that he doesn’t offer a discount adequate enough to move his way. I also have no real issue with Collin Sexton with the usage he’s had lately with upwards of 20 shot attempts since Jordan Clarkson was shipped out of town. Charlotte’s defense is slightly better than the Cavs’ but it’s also bad with a 110 defensive rating.
Golden State Looks Solid Again
No D’Angelo Russell and Willie Cauley-Stein once again opens opportunity for a Golden State team who does quality NBA DFS work when given some bodies out of the lineup. Alec Burks looks particularly strong to me once again after he went for 45 fantasy points in 38 minutes with 8-for-20 shooting against San Antonio. This matchup will be faster and comparably bad defensively so he’ll be a core play for me despite his rising price. I’d favor him over the slightly more expensive Draymond Green even though he’s not an insane play either after he almost notched a triple-double with 41.5 fantasy points last time out as well.
I’d be less inclined to point chase Glenn Robinson with his salary up but he did play 40 minutes last game. Marquese Chriss’ 34 minutes last game appeal to me more than him by a lot at a slightly cheaper price. Ditto for Damion Lee who’s even more expensive than Burks but has over 29.25 fantasy points in his last six games. I’d prioritize Chriss and Burks but really can’t argue any Warriors with the usage they have available in a quality matchup.
Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns are both questionable with their recent ailments and it’d be a good spot for either if they make it into the lineup. If they don’t, Jarrett Culver and Shabazz Napier would be in play again but with much less appealing prices than last time out. The same goes for Gorgui Dieng who had just 30.5 fantasy points against Golden State on Dec. 23. I wouldn’t fault you for these guys but the discounted Robert Covington would appeal to me more if we saw Wiggins out.
A Smattering Of Ugly Defense-Forward Games
Denver-Indiana, Toronto-Miami and Utah-Chicago all look like tough situations on paper with lots of quality defensive teams and mostly lower paces across the board. Indiana offers some theoretical value with Aaron Holiday likely to start for Malcolm Brogdon but the matchup and his rising price feel a bit iffy. Rudy Gobert also has one of the top center matchups in the league against Chicago but he’s been insanely priced up to a rate that’s hard to love. I don’t mind going to some of the core Heat or Raptors guys given that likely very competitive situation. That said, their prices are all super high for that style of game.
Overall, I imagine I won’t have much from these three games other than the key guys who have steady usage and roles. Given that this is a fairly large slate, I think there are other ways to go, though the lack of ownership and ugliness on paper certainly offers some theoretical tournament upside.
