2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta PGA DFS: Gary Woodland You're Jon Rahm Pivot

2023 will mark the second running of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, an event added to the schedule in 2022 to replace the now-defunct WGC Mexico event. Jon Rahm prevailed at last year’s Mexican Open as a +350 favorite over a weak field. By all accounts, this 2023 event feels eerily similar. Rahm is one of only two top-50 players attending the event along with Tony Finau. It will be fascinating to see just how short Rahm’s odds are this week and how he impacts PGA DFS builds given his early season success and move back to the number one player in the OWGR.

The good news for PGA betting and PGA DFS is that the event is being played at the same venue as last season in Vidanta Vallarta. It’s a Greg Norman-designed course that looks similar, albeit larger and longer, to his El Chameleon setup. That one is used for the PGA’s other Mexican stop, the Mayakoba Classic. Players who are used to playing in tropical settings like Mayakoba, Punta Cana and Puerto Rico could have an edge given the paspalum greens this week which mimic what the players see at those stops every season.

Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, after you get the 2023 Mexico Open preview. They have both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.

PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta DFS Picks & Preview

This week is yet another drastic change in the PGA Schedule. Gone are the elite fields from the Masters and RBC — and the quirky team format from the Zurich — and in its place is a wide-open affair in Mexico. Of course, it might not be that wide open as one of those top 50 players is Jon Rahm.

Rahm is the clear best player in the world at the moment and his presence at this event will create a shift down the odds boards that will make it a kind of all-or-nothing week in terms of approach. You’re either betting Rahm at his number (likely +300 or shorter) or opposing him with a handful of other options at longer prices.

This will be the same strategy in DFS circles. The situation is less clear for PGA DFS as we don’t have ownership projections or prices out yet. It’s likely that Rahm will approach 50% ownership or higher this week on DraftKings. So the problem remains the same — you’re either team Rahm or you’re team spray and pray.

In terms of setup, the course at Vidanta is a wider, more open venue that allows players to grip and rip it off the tee. We only have one year of data but from the names we saw compete here last season (Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Kurt Kitayama and Davis Riley) it does seem like power off the tee is a bonus. Top finishers at Vidanta gained almost as many strokes off the tee as they did on approach last season which speaks to how much of an advantage good off-the-tee play might be at this venue, long-term.

Mexico Open at Vidanta DFS Picks: Betting Trends

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:

Jon Rahm: Rahm is so far in front of this field in terms of accomplishments you need binoculars to see him from second place. Coming off a week of rest he should be fine to chase his second win at this event.
Wyndham Clark: Clark ranks out first in strokes gained total over the last six events. He finished top five last week at the Zurich and has the kind of length that should dominate at Vidanta.
Tony Finau: Finau has yet to record a top-five on the season but he’s also yet to miss a cut. He actually ranks out first in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds (ahead of Rahm) and by all accounts is one hot putting week away from competing for an outright win.
Nicolai Hojgaard: Hojgaard has the kind of length that should really play well around Vidanta, he’s averaged 324 yards off the tee this season and was runner-up at Corales.
Patrick Rodgers: Rodgers is playing better of late. He led the Valero for three rounds and gained 5.8 strokes on approach at RBC Heritage.

Field Notes: One player to watch this week is Davis Riley who was horrific beyond belief at Valero but had a solid week in the team event in Louisiana (where he and Nick Hardy won). He placed sixth at this event last season… Brandon Wu is another name that deserves some attention. He finished second at this event last season and has multiple top-five finishes in his short career already… Some other names to keep an eye on in this field include Erik van Rooyen and Matti Schmid who both made the cut last week as well and have shown good upside in these weaker fields…

Latest PGA DFS Content

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta Past Winners and Winners Stats

2022: Jon Rahm

Lead-in: MC/35/MC (missed the cut at the PLAYERS and the Masters the week prior)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 5.6/SG:APP 2.6/SG:ATG 2.0/SG:PUTT 3.6/SG:TTG 10.2
Rahm was dominant off the tee and that was a hallmark of players who finished high up last season
Of the players who finished inside the top 10 at this event last year, only one failed to gain over 1.8 strokes off the tee
While he gained strokes everywhere for the week, Rahm’s biggest assets were his strength off the tee and a hot putter that gained him over 3.5 strokes for the week on the greens.

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta Course Preview

Vidanta Vallarta: Par 71, 7456 yards

Greens: Paspalum

Designer: Greg Norman

Similar Courses: El Chameleon, Congaree Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities

This Greg Norman-designed venue is a standard resort course setup with wide fairways and generous greens. The course normally plays as a par 73 for amateurs with six par 5’s. For the pros, two of those par 5’s turn into par 4’s and so the course will play at a lengthy 7,456 yards and as a par 71.

Last season, saw players grip it and rip off the tee often with the field averaging close to 300 yards per drive. It’s a major change from what we saw at Hilton Head two weeks ago where iron play and short games took center stage. Around the green play just isn’t as important this week, especially with higher green in regulation %’s and a good forecast. One area to look at outside of off-the-tee play is longer approaches. The longer par 4’s in play and the numerous par 5’s will make approaches from 175 yards out far more common this week, and if we look back to the leaderboard from last year we can find numerous examples of players like Tony Finau, Davis Riley and even Cameron Champ who tend to excel in this category.

The paspalum greens are also somewhat of an equalizer for poor putters as they tend to play slower and can frustrate those who aren’t used to the surface. Look for scores to again approach the 17-under mark that Rahm won at last season.

Key Stats: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee / Strokes Gained Ball-Striking / Proximity greater than 200 yards

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta Recent Form Watch

Top Strokes Gained Approach (last 24 rounds):

Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Wyndham Clark
Gary Woodland
Kevin Roy

Top Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Last 24 rounds):

Luke List
Gary Woodland
Brent Grant
MJ Daffue
Ben Martin

Top Approach Proximity greater than 200 yards (Last 50 Rounds):

Jon Rahm
Gary Woodland
Robby Shelton
Kevin Roy
Matthias Schmid

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta Weather Forecast

Thursday morning: 72-74 F, winds 3-5 mph/0-20% chance of precipitation

Thursday afternoon: 80-84 F, winds 8-10 mph/20% chance of precipitation

Friday morning: 72-74 F, winds 4-6 mph/60-80% chance of precipitation

Friday afternoon: 80-82 F, winds 10-13 mph/50% chance of precipitation

The weather this week looks like a big nothing burger. There is a little bit of afternoon wind forecast on the first two days but nothing to get overly concerned about. Thursday may have slightly better conditions but by only the smallest of margins. Expect great scoring conditions throughout the week with wave stacking unlikely to carry much utility as a strategy in DFS.

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets

Gary Woodland | BetMGM Outright

Woodland has had a hard road of it since his 2019 US Open win. He has yet to win on the PGA since his major triumph and has seen his game go through various slumps. The good news for Woodland stans is that his traditionally bulletproof ball striking seems to be back. Through his last 12 starts on the PGA Tour Woodland has now gained strokes off the tee in each of those events and has started to display more consistency and dominance with his approaches as well. He’s fifth in the field in approach proximity and is second only to Rahm in proximity from greater than 200 yards over the last 50 rounds. Woodland finished 24th at this event last season while gaining over 9.0 strokes tee to green and shot two rounds of 67. He’s playing better than he was at this time last year and is also coming off a confidence-boosting 14th place at Augusta. If you’re looking for someone with both the motivation and talent to take on Rahm this week, look at Woodland early Monday who makes for a solid outright play at +2000 or bigger.

Brent Grant | BetMGM Outright

There are plenty of good young names in the field in Mexico, all of whom will have a chance at making a name for themselves by getting in the mix this week. American Brent Grant is one such player and a name we have seen pop up on leaderboards a couple of times already this season. Grant posted a 20th place at Pebble Beach and an eighth at the longer Corales venue just a month or so ago. He has loads of power off the tee and ranks sixth in strokes gained off the tee over the last 50 rounds. He’s also a very solid long-iron player and comes in ranked 14th in long-term form from greater than 200 yards in the field. Considering the setup, Grant’s power game should be allowed to flourish in Mexico, and he’s proven capable of landing a decent finish when up against weaker fields already. He’ll make for a solid DFS value to chase and a potentially solid ladder bet in the top 40/20/10 placing markets, depending on his opening odds.