Mexico Open PGA DFS Picks: Don't Let Recency Bias Push You Off Luke List

For the second consecutive season, the PGA Tour will be hosting the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta (par 71, 7,456 yards, paspalum greens). Jon Rahm won the inaugural Mexico Open at -17 here last year. Following last week’s team-based Zurich Classic, this tournament will have standard stroke play, with a field of 144 players and a top-65 (and ties) cut after the first 36 holes. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the Mexico Open, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs.

PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: Mexico Open at Vidanta

Vidanta Vallarta is a lengthy Greg Norman design with wide fairways, large greens, 106 bunkers and water on 12 of 18 holes. With little trouble off the tee and this course being one of the longest these players will face all season, bombers have a clear advantage at Vidanta Vallarta; last year Rahm led the field in driving distance during his Mexico Open win. In addition to being a strong driver, golfers also need to be impressive on par 5’s to contend. Including Rahm, six of the top-10 finishers at the Mexico Open last season ranked top 10 in par-5 efficiency for the event.

Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.

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Gary Woodland

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 2nd, FanDuel: 2nd

Woodland finished 22nd at Vidanta Vallarta last year and returns to Mexico this week as the maker of seven of his last eight cuts. Two of these finishes were top-15s. Not only have Woodland’s irons been excellent of late — ranking fifth in strokes gained approach over his last 24 rounds — he has been masterful with his driver, ranking second in strokes gained off the tee and 10th in driving distance during this time. To put a cherry on top, he ranks 20th in par-5 efficiency across his past 24 rounds and sixth in this field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds on paspalum greens.

Woodland is a legitimate threat to win this week and is a must-have for GPPs, with Stokastic projecting him to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Patrick Rodgers

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 4th, FanDuel: 3rd

Rodgers arrives in Mexico on the heels off back-to-back terrific finishes, with a fifth at the Valero and then a 19th at the RBC Heritage. He collectively gained strokes on approach, off the tee and with his putter at both these events and shot under par in six of these eight rounds. Furthermore, Rodgers ranks fourth in this field in par-5 efficiency and 17th in driving distance over the last 24 rounds, setting him up perfectly for Vidanta Vallarta, where he finished 10th last season.

Rodgers brings similar upside this time around and is a sensational GPP option this week, with Stokastic projecting him for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Nate Lashley

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 12th, FanDuel: 21st

Lashley is a true paspalum specialist that needs to be included in the GPP pool this week. In 10 career starts at courses with paspalum greens, he has produced six top-15 finishes, including a third at the Puerto Rico Open last month and an 11th at the Mexico Open last year.

Lashley ranks fifth in par-5 efficiency over his last 24 rounds and has three finishes of 31st or better in his past six starts. He is a strong bet for a top-20 finish in his return to Vidanta Vallarta this week and is expected to come with minimal ownership, according to Stokastic’s projections.

Luke List

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 25th, FanDuel: 19th

Regardless of List’s ugly recent log, he is a perfect match for Vidanta Vallarta and is an elite GPP target, with Stokastic projecting him for essentially no ownership on either DraftKings and FanDuel. Yes, List has missed four of his last five cuts at standard solo events, but all the venues where he failed were less-than-driver courses that don’t set up well for long players. This season, List ranks 11th in strokes gained off the tee and 16th in driving distance, and he has made three cuts and carded two top-25 finishes in his four starts at courses that are over 7,400 yards. Overall, List ranks fifth in the field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds at courses of that length or longer.

List brings top-20 upside in this weak field and could be a real game-changer for GPPs this week, with everyone ignoring him due to recency bias.