2023 RBC Heritage PGA DFS: Justin Thomas DFS Rebound Here

The RBC Heritage retains its usual spot on the schedule for 2023 (right after the Masters). It also does get a large boost as it has reached elevated event status. So many times in past seasons the RBC has become a week off for many top players, as the quirky small course and smaller prize purse say right after the first major of the season. Now, the top players are essentially locked into attending these bigger elevated events which means nearly all the big names in golf are descending upon Hilton Head for the week. Nonetheless, onto our 2023 RBC Heritage DFS picks and preview.

Do not forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.

PGA DFS Picks: 2023 RBC Heritage DFS Picks & Preview

The field for the 2023 RBC Heritage is locked in at 132 players, with plenty of big names in attendance. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler will all be making the trip to Hilton Head this season, a huge rarity for these players. Scheffler will be making his event debut this season, while Rahm only played this event once back in 2020 (due to the pandemic schedule).

The RBC Heritage may have elevated event status for 2023 but it will remain situated at the claustrophobic Harbour Town Golf Links, a tight par 71 venue that has some of the thinnest fairways and smallest greens on the PGA Tour. The course truly is the hallmark of this event. While most of the biggest hitters on the PGA have tended to skip this event, it has become a beacon of hope for shorter hitters who have elite short iron and around-the-green play. Players like Kevin Kisner, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar and Luke Donald have made this stop their personal ATM machine in past seasons as Harbour Town allows veteran players who do not have the ability to carry it 300+ yards off the tee the ability to compete against the younger generations.

While the weaker field strength is significant, the last five winners at Hilton Head prior to Jordan Spieth in 2022 are Stewart Cink -19 (over Harold Varner III -15), Webb Simpson -22 (over Abraham Ancer -21), C.T. Pan -12 (over Matt Kuchar -11), Satoshi Kodaira -12 (over Si Woo Kim playoff) and Wes Bryan -13 (over Luke Donald -12).

Given those names, it is safe to say that power is not something need to worry about this week; placement off the tee will be more important than length in an open-field environment. The nice thing about this event is that there are lots of courses to look back at for correlation purposes. Sea Island, Colonial, Waialae and PGA National are some of the best comparables and past leaderboards and success at those stops often correlates well to success at Hilton Head.

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RBC Heritage DFS Picks: Betting Trends

– Nine of the last 12 winners finished 23rd or better in a previous year at this event before winning (two of the past six winners have also been first-timers at this event).

– The winner of The RBC Heritage has played in The Masters the week prior and missed the cut in four of the last 10 runnings of this event.

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:

Jon Rahm: Rahm has won four events in 2023 alone and is coming off a dominant win at the year’s first major. The argument against him will be exhaustion and lack of preparation but he is back to being the best in the world.
Jordan Spieth: He posted a third at the Valspar, a 19th at the PLAYERS and a 4th place finish last week. Spieth’s looking like a serious threat to defend his title but could be a fatigue victim as well.
Viktor Hovland: After placing 3rd at the PLAYERS, Hovland backed it up by posting a career-best 7th at Augusta. He faltered on Sunday but has played terrific golf since the start of the Florida swing.
Wyndham Clark: Clark has shown vast improvement in 2023. He has gained multiple strokes on approach in seven of his last eight starts and finished 6th or better in his last two starts.
Russell Henley: Henley has been terrific over his last two starts. He gained over seven strokes tee to green at the PLAYERS and finished tied for 4th at Augusta, his best finish ever in a major.

Field Notes: Despite this week being an elevated event, there are several past winners taking part. Satoshi Kodaira, C.T. Pan and Davis Love III are some of the past winners who would not normally have qualified, but for their past winner status… The big injury note to watch this week is on Will Zalatoris, who withdrew pre-event from the Masters. Zalatoris has been dealing with back issues since last Fall and is a very risky play in PGA DFS… Akshay Bhatia and Justin Suh, two great young players who have had strong starts to 2023, both got sponsor exemptions and will be teeing it up this week.

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2023 RBC Heritage Past Winners and Winners Stats

2022: Jordan Spieth

Lead-in: MC/35/MC (missed the cut at the PLAYERS and the Masters the week prior)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 4.3/SG:APP 4.8/SG:ATG 4.2/SG:PUTT -2.5/SG:TTG 13.5
Spieth was dominant tee to green last season and played likely benefitted from the poorer conditions
It is rare winners lose over two strokes putting and on a nicer week his lack of putting may have meant settling for second.

2021: Stewart Cink

Lead in: 12/19/MC (MC at PLAYERS but was top 20 at Masters)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 1.6/SG:APP 8.5/SG:ATG 3.5/SG:PUTT 2.3/SG:TTG 13.7
Cink dominated a softer course in 2021. Like Spieth, he was great tee to green but made up ground on the field with his putter as well

2020 (played in June): Webb Simpson

Lead-in: MC/61/Win, (Played in June, missed cut in prior start)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 0.8/SG:APP 5.7/SG:ATG 0.6/SG:PUTT 6.6/SG:TTG 7.2
The year Simpson won, the event was played in May and saw much lower scoring, and as a result, the event became a little bit more of a birdie-fest type environment and played more like a Fall series event with a lot of the field getting in at 15 under par or better

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

2023 RBC Heritage Course Preview

Harbour Town Golf Links: Par 71, 7191 yards

Greens: Bermuda (Poa overseed)

Designer: Pete Dye (1969)

Similar Courses: Colonial, TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, Waialae

Harbour Town Golf Links is an idyllic setting and one that the PGA Tour visits every season. The course was designed by Pete Dye and has some of the smallest Bermuda greens on the PGA Tour and narrow fairways that make placement more important than power.

While there are not as many water hazards on Harbour Town as TPC Sawgrass, the par 3s can be treacherous and players often have to deal with overhanging trees or water off the tee. Adding in tee shots that often force players to club down and go for accuracy over power, this becomes a week where off the tee is nearly meaningless. Good approach and proximity from 175 yards and beyond are of utmost importance, but with such small greens and wind often playing a factor, around-the-green play can be nearly as important as ball striking.

Top finishers at this venue gain most of their strokes on approach, which is not surprising, but also tend to gain more strokes around the green than off the tee.
Ultimately, this is a unique setup and one that correlates well to the other older, more technical tracks on the PGA. With more elite players this season it will not be as easy for the Matt Kuchars and Luke Donalds of the world to find success — but it also will not be surprising if they do. Looking at a solid blend of course history and recent form in the key stats is a good way to approach Harbour Town,

Key Stats: Strokes Gained Approach, Proximity 175-200 yards, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green

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2023 RBC Heritage Recent Form Watch

Top Strokes Gained Approach (last 24 rounds):

Tom Hoge
Max Homa
Tony Finau
Scottie Scheffler
Collin Morikawa

Top Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 24 rounds):

Scottie Scheffler
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas

Top Approach Proximity 175-200 yards (Last 50 Rounds):

Si Woo Kim
Tony Finau
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa

2023 RBC Heritage Weather Forecast

Thursday morning: 60-65 F, winds 5-7 mph/0-20% chance of precipitation

Thursday afternoon: 68-72 F, winds 8-10 mph/20% chance of precipitation

The weather starts off OK. It is not overly cool like it was last week, but the wind on Thursday does look like it will build as the day goes on and into Friday. Morning starters look like they will likely have a slight advantage.

Friday morning: 68-70 F, winds 10-13 mph/60-80% chance of precipitation

Friday afternoon: 70-72 F, winds 15-17 mph/50% chance of precipitation

Bigger gusts are expected all day long, but there is also some rain in the forecast and it is likely most of the players will play at least part of their rounds in rain gear. The morning wave may once again have a slight advantage, especially if the rain holds off until the afternoon.

Weekend Forecast:

There is not a ton of rain expected on the weekend, so stoppages are unlikely unless a freak thunderstorm rolls in. Sunday does have some high winds rolling in later in the day which could really make the final round interesting.

Overall, the conditions again favor the strong tee to green players as it will take more than just good short irons and putting to navigate the poor conditions. Expect around-the-green play to be a big factor again this season.

2023 RBC Heritage DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets

Justin Thomas | BetMGM Outright

It is not a bulletproof strategy by any means, but looking to players who have played poorly at Augusta for a quick bounce-back week at Hilton Head has been profitable at this event over the last decade or so. Brandon Grace, Graeme McDowell, Jim Furyk and Jordan Spieth have accomplished the feat, grabbing wins at Hilton Head directly after hugely disappointing starts at Augusta. With last week’s major also being such a grind and played in terrible weather, a rested Justin Thomas has a good chance to accomplish a similar feat in 2023.

Thomas missed the cut in terrible fashion on Friday, going from -2 with a handful of holes left to +4 and on the outside looking in. Thomas was not doing poorly until the blinding rain and wind came in, so it is hard to be overly critical of his play. Prior to The Masters, he had gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in three straight events and over five strokes tee to green in each of those starts as well. He has played this venue event four times, posting an 11th on debut way back in 2015 and has great Pete Dye history with a win at Sawgrass in 2021. Thomas should be available at good odds after missing the weekend and makes for a more than sensible outright target around the 25-1 mark.

Adam Svensson | BetMGM Outright

Adam Svensson is another potential great betting target this week. Svensson won his only PGA event in the fall just down the road at Sea Island and sets up perfectly for these more technical PGA Tour tracks. He has top 40 in strokes gained around the green and approaches over the last 24 rounds of play and popped up on the Pete Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass three weeks ago at the PLAYERS, where he was the event leader after 36-holes.

Svensson eventually faded to a 13th-place finish at the PLAYERS, but his performance there once again highlighted his upside on these Dye-designed courses. Svensson has always been an elite iron player, even going back to his Korn Ferry Tour days and has improved immensely around the green and putting over the last year. He finished 26th on his Hilton Head debt last season and has finished top 25 in each of his past three elevated events, in 2023. As a top 40/20/10 ladder bet this week, Svensson makes a lot of sense — especially since he will be coming in rested like Thomas.