NBA Player Props: Keep Fading Jimmy Butler's Shooting (June 7)

The NBA Finals are all tied up at one game apiece. The Denver Nuggets just dropped their first home game of the postseason and will look to right the ship tonight. With so much on the line, even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers, especially the below Jimmy Butler player prop.

Enter Stokastic’s Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA and MLB Bet Pro pull lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a reduced-price first month for only $24.95!

Stokastic’s Bet Pro model is all over these NBA player props for Wednesday’s playoff action.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Prop | Nuggets-Heat Game 3

Jimmy Butler Prop O/U 1.5 3-Pointers

Although Jimmy Butler is an incredibly talented player, he isn’t a high-volume perimeter shooter. Butler recorded multiple 3-pointers in only seven of his 64 regular-season appearances. He has gotten a bit more aggressive from long range in the playoffs but still has multiple 3-pointers in only eight of his 19 appearances.

Butler shouldn’t tally his ninth game with multiple 3-pointers this postseason tonight. The Denver Nuggets play effective perimeter defense, and Butler doesn’t take enough long-range shots to cash the over. While he has shot efficiently from long range in the playoffs, his conversion rate over the last four games (44.4%) is unsustainably high relative to the one he recorded in the regular season (35%).

Stokastic’s Bet Pro projections have Butler hitting 0.6 3-pointers tonight; in other words, the projections have Butler regressing to the mean. That means the under has an expected win rate of 70%, far better than the -190 (65.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best NBA Player Prop: Jimmy Butler Under 0.5 3-Pointers +160 at DraftKings

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Kevin Love Prop O/U 11.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)

Are NBA player prop bettors paying much attention to Kevin Love? Probably not, especially since he only just returned to the rotation, which is exactly why Bet Pro is such a valuable tool. This over bet has a solid 3% expected ROI at Caesars Sportsbook.

Love should accumulate 13.2 points, rebound and assists tonight, per Bet Pro. He recorded 6 points, 10 rebounds and 1 assist in Game 2, and he won’t have to deal with competition from Tyler Herro yet. Love is averaging 14.3 PRA per game in the postseason, so if he gets the same minutes he got in Game 2, he should surpass this number 57% of the time.

If you want to exploit more mispriced NBA and MLB player props, plenty of other lines are popping on Bet Pro tonight. To view them, simply sign up for a subscription — new users can even get the first month for the reduced price of $24.95!

Best NBA Player Prop: Kevin Love Over 11.5 PRA -123 at Caesars

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.