The NBA Finals are all tied up at one game apiece. The Denver Nuggets just dropped their first home game of the postseason and will look to right the ship tonight. With so much on the line, even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers, especially the below Jimmy Butler player prop.
Enter Stokastic’s Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA and MLB Bet Pro pull lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a reduced-price first month for only $24.95!
Stokastic’s Bet Pro model is all over these NBA player props for Wednesday’s playoff action.
Today’s Top NBA Player Prop | Nuggets-Heat Game 3
Jimmy Butler Prop O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
Although Jimmy Butler is an incredibly talented player, he isn’t a high-volume perimeter shooter. Butler recorded multiple 3-pointers in only seven of his 64 regular-season appearances. He has gotten a bit more aggressive from long range in the playoffs but still has multiple 3-pointers in only eight of his 19 appearances.
Butler shouldn’t tally his ninth game with multiple 3-pointers this postseason tonight. The Denver Nuggets play effective perimeter defense, and Butler doesn’t take enough long-range shots to cash the over. While he has shot efficiently from long range in the playoffs, his conversion rate over the last four games (44.4%) is unsustainably high relative to the one he recorded in the regular season (35%).
Stokastic’s Bet Pro projections have Butler hitting 0.6 3-pointers tonight; in other words, the projections have Butler regressing to the mean. That means the under has an expected win rate of 70%, far better than the -190 (65.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jimmy Butler Under 0.5 3-Pointers +160 at DraftKings
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Kevin Love Prop O/U 11.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
Are NBA player prop bettors paying much attention to Kevin Love? Probably not, especially since he only just returned to the rotation, which is exactly why Bet Pro is such a valuable tool. This over bet has a solid 3% expected ROI at Caesars Sportsbook.
Love should accumulate 13.2 points, rebound and assists tonight, per Bet Pro. He recorded 6 points, 10 rebounds and 1 assist in Game 2, and he won’t have to deal with competition from Tyler Herro yet. Love is averaging 14.3 PRA per game in the postseason, so if he gets the same minutes he got in Game 2, he should surpass this number 57% of the time.
If you want to exploit more mispriced NBA and MLB player props, plenty of other lines are popping on Bet Pro tonight. To view them, simply sign up for a subscription — new users can even get the first month for the reduced price of $24.95!
Best NBA Player Prop: Kevin Love Over 11.5 PRA -123 at Caesars
![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600): Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
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