It is always important to survey the DFS landscape each week and determine potential building blocks, which are the core plays and the foundation for most lineup types. The popular options are rising to the top for good reason more often than not, but there also are overlooked plays at every position, usually only a couple names down the rankings list. In this post, we’ll be making our best NFL DFS Week 7 picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic provides a variety of tools for all DFS sports that can help sort through the large NFL feature slate player pool. These were utilized in coming up with the recommendations in this article and include, but are far from limited to the NFL DFS Top Stacks tool, player projections, the Boom/Bust tool, and of course the proprietary Lineup Generator which incorporates all the tools and date, including tournament field popularity and of course simulations of the slate and how that impacts the potential ROI for your lineups and those of the field.
All tools are available for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates each week. Additionally, multiple tools are also at your disposal for the sub-slates as well as the primetime “island games” which have turned into one of the most popular DFS offerings on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Take a look at the Stokastic Discounts and Coupon Code page as well as the Subscription page to see what packages best suit your needs.
NFL DFS Week 7 Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
This week there are 10 games on the Sunday featured slate, with no games in Europe. There are six teams on bye including Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Houston, New York and Tennessee.
Best NFL DFS Week 7 Picks and Building Blocks: Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (Chargers-Chiefs): DraftKings ($8,000, <5.0% ownership), FanDuel ($8,300, <5.0% ownership)
All eyes will be on this cherry matchup as the Chargers head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in a crucial game. This game currently has a 47.5 point total and while that is not exactly gaudy, it is the highest on the featured-slate and by nearly a touchdown over half of the other tilts.
Patrick Mahomes is going to be far more popular, particularly on DraftKings where he is just $300 more than Justin Herbert. Herbert in turn has a significant $900 discount on FanDuel, though he still projects to be on around just 5% of large-field tournament rosters. The former Oregon Duck is sixth in the league with 266.6 yards per game, which is just 15 yards or one decent completion out of second. Though he has “only” nine passing touchdowns, he has already rush for three rushing scores.
Austin Ekeler returned last week after missing most of the season and that gives the Los Angeles offense another dimension that was sorely lacking and putting a lot of pressure on the passing game, that was without Mike Williams. Herbert is no stranger to playing Kansas City or being in Arrowhead Stadium. In his six career regular season games against the Chiefs, Herbert has five games with at least 280 passing yards as well as five multi-touchdown efforts, with just four total interceptions.
Lamar Jackson (Ravens-Lions): DraftKings ($7,600, 7.5% ownership), FanDuel ($8,000, 14.5% ownership)
One. That is the number of touchdowns credited to Lamar Jackson in the last two games. Heck, he even suffered the ignominy along with his team, LOSING to the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 5. Even more dismal has been a sluggish passing offense that has yet to carry Jackson to more than 250 yards in a single game and he has rushed for more than 55 yard only twice.
So why should we go back to Jackson? Well for starters, this will be only the third home game for Baltimore and the Ravens have been on the road each of the last three weeks. Despite all of this, the team has a 5-2 record and could still challenge for one of the top two NFC playoff berths.
Detroit has allowed three opposing signal-callers to record multiple passing touchdowns this season and Jordan Love had one passing and one rushing in Week 4. The Lions have a much improved defense this season, but it is not like they have faced touch competition over the last month with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, Green Bay and Atlanta.
Keep in mind that the Baltimore offensive strategy is changing as the team looks to be at least closer to a passing/rushing equilibrium, both in an effort to keep Jackson upright and to help offset the loss of running back J.K. Dobbins. Jackson is fine on his own or he can be combined with one or both of trusted tight end Mark Andrews and uber-talented rookie Zay Flowers in tournaments.
Best NFL DFS Week 7 Picks and Building Blocks: Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III (Seattle-Cardinals): DraftKings ($7,000, 23.5%), FanDuel ($8,500, 19.4%)
The Masses will be rolling with Kenneth Walker III on Sunday, as should most savvy gamers in their “cash game” (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.). Arizona has the 25th rushing and 31st passing DVOA, so with Seattle nearly double-digit home favorites, this should be a very positive environment for the second-year ball-carrier. Additionally, rookie Zach Charbonnet (hamstring) has not practiced yet this week and is looking at long odds of suiting up on Sunday.
Even if Charbonnet suits up, he will be limited, so veteran DeeJay Dallas will likely be serving as the “passing down” back. Walker is not a bad receiver, but he does not possess glue-like hands either. He has 13 targets through five games, with 11 receptions for 100 yards. We are more interested in his ground game work as he has six touchdowns already and while he is on pace for close to 1,200 rushing yards, that is not as impressive a figure as it once was as it works out to just over 70 yards per game.
Though it should not be a major driver in our decisions as personnel and situations can change dramatically year-over-year in the NFL, in two games against Arizona last year (Weeks 6 and 9), Walker averaged 23.5 carries, 103 rushing yards with three total touchdowns. Anything less than 100 yards and a touchdown on Sunday should be considered a major disappointment.
Josh Jacobs (Raiders-Bears): DraftKings ($7,400, 21.5%), FanDuel ($8,000, 22.8%)
While Josh Jacobs did not exactly get there after being featured in this same slot for Week 6, it was not for a lack of volume as he had 25 carries and five targets against the Patriots. This week the Raiders are in Chicago and they will be without Jimmy Garoppolo (back). That means either rookie Aiden O’Connell or veteran Bryan Hoyer will be under center. Las Vegas was in this same scenario in Week 4 and it was O’Connell who got the start against the Chargers going 24 of 39 (61.5%) for 238 aerial yards, with one interception – though he did score a rushing touchdown, albeit producing just three yards on three carries.
This is a very winnable game for the Raiders, who are 2.5 road favorites. Las Vegas is sitting at 3-3 and while it will be a longshot to catch Kansas City for the AFC West title, a Wild Card berth is very much in reach, so we could see Hoyer get the nod, though not because he played for the Bears once upon a time in the 2016 season.
Back to Jacobs, he is going to be fed early and often against the porous Chicago defense and looking at Week 4, the last time he was without his featured field general, Jacobs was peppered with 11 targets, catching eight for 81 yards, while adding 58 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Enjoy!
Other Running Back Options
Injuries have done a number on the running back depth this week, so there are quite a few players stepping into additional opportunities or outright featured roles. None are quite as intriguing as the two aforementioned options, but the point is that there are plenty of pivots, so crafting unique lineups should not be an issue this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions-Ravens): The rookie is back after having missed two weeks with a hamstring injury and now veteran David Montgomery (ribs) is out and journeyman Craig Reynolds (hamstring/toe) is dinged up as well. Baltimore has the homefield advantage, but Gibbs should be in line for 15 or so touches as a realistic baseline if he is mostly healthy.
Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt (Browns-Colts): This duo saw extended work as the Browns try to replace Nick Chubb and while neither is a super sexy option, they are solid tournament targets for those thinking thrifty thoughts. This game is in Baltimore and the Ravens have a top seven DVOA against the run and pass.
Zach Evans, Royce Freeman and Darrell “Don’t call me Gerald” Henderson Jr. (Rams-Steelers): It should be Zach Evans getting the first crack at a woeful Pittsburgh rushing defense, after the Rams lost Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers to injury. The team did resign former starting running back Henderson Jr, though that seems like more of a depth move as they also have Royce Freeman and even Myles Gaskin is lurking around as well. Evans likely will get the volume, but he could be usurped by Henderson for any high-leverage touches with his familiarity in the Sean McVay offense. Keep tabs on any news coming out of the weekend pressers.
Premium Members can check out all the other running back options here.
Best NFL DFS Week 7 Picks and Building Blocks: Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (Chargers-Chiefs): DraftKings ($8,600, 21.3%), FanDuel ($9,200, 17.8%)
There is no salary discount for Keenan Allen, though fortunately as referenced above there are several “pay down” options at running back and on DraftKings there is a cheap tight end that can unlock a whole host of lineup combinations.
Mike Williams is out for the year and while Allen is no longer a spring chicken in his age-31 season, expect him to get double-digit targets every game until the inevitable soft tissue injury catches up to him. For the season, he is averaging 11 targets per game and he already has four touchdowns, along with three games with 85 or more yards, including an 18 catch, 215 yard masterpiece against the Vikings. Those four scores have former Cal Bear halfway to his career high of eight, which should alleviate the main concerns of DFS gamers about his inability to find the end zone.
Josh Palmer is surprisingly not on the injury report and he represents a strong discount to Allen on FanDuel ($6,500) and DraftKings ($4,800), while seeing 22 targets over the last three games.
Bonus Thoughts
Cooper Kupp (Rams-Steelers): is $1,100 more on DraftKings, but just $500 more on FanDuel, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out with these alpha options.
Stefon Diggs (Bills-Patriots): is always in the mix, but just know that when stacking him with Josh Allen, you will not be alone as nearly 80% of all gamers will be taking that route, so adding in a second Buffalo receiver or even running back Latavius Murray is an interesting stacking strategy.
Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants-Commanders): The punt du jour across the DFS sites on Sunday, the second-year wide-out continues to look better each week as he puts more distance behind the knee injury that ended his rookie campaign. In his four games since returning, he has settled in with a snap share in the low 60%s, with a healthy 25 targets.
Best NFL DFS Week 7 Picks and Building Blocks: Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (Chiefs-Chargers): DraftKings ($8,000, 20.5%), FanDuel ($8,500, 22.3%)
In a week that does not have any player currently projected to be represented on more than 25% of all tournament lineups, Travis Kelce stands out when employing the Stokastic Lineup Generator. This is a tool that combines all of the other proprietary Stokastic offerings such as player projections, pOWN%, boom/bust (aka leverage and ceiling) as well as using similar foundational functionality as the Stokastic Simulations.
Focusing first on FanDuel, even while Kelce is one of the top-five most popular players, the Lineup Generator (using standard settings of a balanced player portfolio, while combining the quarterback with at least one teammate and one opposing player), still is pushing to have users with those settings being overweight to Kelce at nearly two-times the field, when creating a 20 lineup portfolio.
This makes sense when we look at the wide receivers and tight ends as a collective group and see that Kelce has the fourth best median fantasy point projection, while also rating out as the fifth best fantasy point per dollar play on the blue site.
Turning our attention to DraftKings, Kelce also has the fourth best median fantasy point projection among pass-catchers, but he also has the third best fantasy point per dollar ratio among players projected to produce at least 10 fantasy points. Fellow tight end Luke Musgrave is actually first, with 10.05 projected fantasy points for a ridiculously low $3,300 salary.
We are looking at a wonky week, with few obvious game situations and it would appear that employing a two-tight end strategy is very much in play on DraftKings.
Best NFL DFS Week 7 Picks and Building Blocks: Defense/Special Teams
Washington Commanders at New York Giants: DraftKings ($3,500, 6.7%), FanDuel ($4,600, 5.6%)
The New York offensive line is a mess and it looks like tackle Matt Peart and center John Michael Schmitz will once again be out with their respective shoulder injuries. Tackle Evan Neal has missed significant time as well with an ankle injury, though he did get in one limited practice this week for the first time in a while.
Last Monday, with Tyrod Taylor under center for the injured Daniel Jones, the Giants gave up three sacks in Buffalo to the Bills. Only the Commanders {34) have allowed more sacks than the Giants (33) through six games and the next worst team is the Bears, who are all the way back at 25 sacks.
Washington is averaging just over three sacks per game and they are a solid option, even on the road. Anything less than five combined sacks and turnovers will be a disappointment, regardless of who is taking snaps for the G-Men.
Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears: DraftKings ($3,800, 6.0%), FanDuel ($4,700, 8.1%)
Wow, this is a recommendation that would not have seemed likely at the start of the season. However, matchups and salaries, along with unique situations are a mainstay in all DFS sports. Chicago will be without Justin Fields (thumb on throwing hand), so rookie Tyson Bagent is the projected starter. Bonus points for any of you sheep that can name what college the undrafted free agent played for… that would be Shepherd University (cwidt), which is a Division II school, located in West Virginia and playing in the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference. All of these facts are courtesy of Wikipedia as no rational person would be expected to know any of these tidbits.
If it is not Bagent getting the snaps, it will be Nathan Peterman aka Mr. Interception, which is also a very good scenario for DFS gamers. Defensive end Maxx Crosby leads the league with 38 quarterback pressures and while the Raiders have just 13 sacks on the season, they have at least two in five of six games and recorded four against the Patriots last week.
Chicago is down to retread running back D’Onta Foreman and a banged up offensive line which is missing Nate Davis, while Dan Feeney (knee) and Darnell Wright (shoulder) are questionable. While the preference is to look at homefield advantage for defenses, these matchups are just too good to ignore.
As you get your NFL DFS Week 7 picks and lineups prepped on DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic can help. We have more free DFS content on the NFL homepage, premium DFS software including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator, and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.
You can also talk NFL DFS picks and strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!
