CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 8 DFS picks and projections for Wednesday, Oct. 18.
CFB Week 8 DFS Picks and Projections | Wednesday, Oct. 18
Quarterback
Diego Pavia ($9,300): New Mexico State is a 3-point favorite over UTEP in a game with a 48.5 total. Diego Pavia quarterbacks an offense that ranks 126th in pace and passes 46.3% of the time. With that said, Pavia has elite mobility behind his 429 cumulative rushing yards this year. He also averages an efficient 230.7 passing yards per game on just 23.4 attempts. UTEP’s defense struggles against both the pass and run, making Pavia by far the safest quarterback on this slate.
Keegan Shoemaker ($6,600): Sam Houston State is a 5-point favorite over FIU in a greasy game with a 40.5 total. Sam Houston State ranks 92nd in pace but throws the ball 54.6% of the time. Quarterback Keegan Shoemaker has decent dual-threat ability, with 103 rushing yards this year. He only averages 205.2 passing, but the weak quarterback slate keeps in play. This looks like a slate to potentially consider non-quarterbacks in the superflex.
Cade McConnell ($5,500): UTEP is a slight underdog, and it ranks 97th in pace while passing 45.1% of the time. An injury to Gavin Hardison thrust Cade McConnell into UTEP’s starting lineup last week. While it is just a one-week sample, McConnell completed 64.7% of his passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns last week and rushed for negative-9 yards. New Mexico State allows 7.7 yards per pass, putting McConnell into play for tournaments.
Keyone Jenkins ($6,200): FIU is also an underdog but ranks 55th in pace with a 49% pass rate. Jenkins averages 244.5 passing yards per game on just 27.3 attempts. Jenkins does have some mobility, but 24 sacks has reduced his upside on the ground. With more sacks likely, Jenkins is a pure GPP play beside McConnell.
Running Back
Deion Hankins ($5,400): UTEP has increased its run rate without Hardison in the lineup, leading to extra work for Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess Jr. Last week both carried the ball 19 times, while Burgess saw the only target. Both have almost identical efficiency and deserve consideration. Hankins’ cheaper price tag gives him a slight edge over Burgess for those running single lineups.
Shomari Lawrence ($5,700): At running back, FIU uses a committee between Shomari Lawrence and Kejon Owens. While close to a 50/50 split, Lawrence averages 10.6 touches per game, and Owens comes in at 8.8. Lawrence also plays more on pass downs, giving him a slight edge over Owens.
Star Thomas ($6,000): With Pavia’s involvement in the run game, all of the New Mexico State backs have suffered. Star Thomas still leads this group with 10.4 touches per game, but Jamoni Jones and Monte Watkins each average 5.7 and 4.7 themselves. With UTEP allowing 5.2 yards per carry, all three deserve consideration for tournaments.
John Gentry ($4,700): Sam Houston State continues to deal with numerous backfield injuries, including Zach Hrbacek, Landan Brown and Charles Crawford III. That said, John Gentry projects to return. After carrying 30 times in Sam Houston State’s third-most recent game, Gentry got hurt after just four attempts in the next game. Though he may not be 100%, Sam Houston State doesn’t have many other backfield options.
Wide Receiver
Kris Mitchell ($7,400): FIU’s alpha receiver Kris Mitchell averages 90.9 yards per game on 7.6 targets. Behind Mitchell, Jalen Bracy operates as the WR2, but Dean Patterson and Eric Rivers rotate the WR3 position. Mitchell’s volume stands out as a clear priority among this bunch.
Noah Smith ($6,400): With injuries to the top two receivers, Noah Smith has jumped to Sam Houston State’s WR1. Smith has at least 11 targets in three straight games, making him a priority on this slate. Behind him, Sam Houston has also narrowed its receiver rotation to include Malik Phillips, Al’vonte Woodard and almost no one else. Woodard and Phillips can be fired up in tournaments behind Smith.
Kelly Akharaiyi ($6,200): Tyrin Smith looks doubtful again, which means another week of Kelly Akharaiyi running as the top wideout. Akharaiyi averaged 8.5 targets per game over UTEP’s last four contests. He also averages 71.6 receiving yards per game, separating from Jeremiah Ballard as the WR2. Ballard makes sense as a cheaper pivot, but the loose pricing keeps Akharaiyi as the top overall wide receiver for this team.
Jonathan Brady ($5,700): While New Mexico State doesn’t pass often, Pavia’s efficiency has led to big plays for the receivers. Jonathan Brady leads the team with 48.3 yards per game on a 61.1% route share. Behind him, Kordell David looks like the preferred punt option. He only has 60 receiving yards this year, but he paces the team with a 70% route share. This led to seven targets last game.
