MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Look to Cincinnati Bats as a Coors Field Countermove (May 27)

Saturday has dual featured-slates with a seven-gamer at 4:05 p.m. ET  followed by a five-game set at 7:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including top shelf pitching as well as a couple of gas cans in search of a match.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Shohei Ohtani vs. Miami Marlins — 3.2 implied runs

First Pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET

• DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,400 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $52

In a rare twist, RHP Shohei Ohtani is carrying a higher salary on DraftKings than on FanDuel. Regardless of salary disparity, he is easily the most talented pitcher on the featured slate. Heck, he is arguably the most talented hitter as well, yet somehow being able to offer him as an option for both positions on the main DFS sites has flummoxed their programmers for years now.

Ohtani continues to be a relatively efficient pitcher — especially considering how many strikeouts he records — and his 15.6 pitches per inning and 91.9 per start are right in line with his career average. The 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings is also a career-best as we should not include his 16.2 per nine in the 2020 season since he made just two mound appearances.

The current collection of Marlins hitters have struck out just 19.2% of the time against right-handed pitching, which is the third-lowest rate since the start of last season. Of course, the tradeoff is a .116 ISO, which is the worst in the league and even below the Detroit Tigers, who are a constant target of DFS gamers. The Angels are 2-to-1 favorites at home to garner the victory and with Ohtani regularly closing out the sixth or seventh inning in his starts, he should be in line for some bonus points.

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Justin Verlander at Colorado Rockies — 4.7 implied runs

First Pitch: 9:10 p.m. ET

• DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $47

Last night, we saw RHP Max Scherzer hold the Rockies in check allowing just one run, a solo shot from Ryan McMahon, across seven innings with eight strikeouts. Colorado has been dreadful against right-handed pitching and while the Rockies are league average with a 22.1% strikeout rate over the last two seasons, they have a .146 ISO which is in the bottom-third of the league and still gives them credit for their Coors Field production.

RHP Justin Verlander has only made two starts in Denver across his entire career, both while he was pitching for the Detroit Tigers. Neither has any bearing on tonight’s matchup, but it is still fun to note that in 2011 he notched a complete game victory allowing only one run and four hits. Then in 2017, he had a solid six-inning outing allowing one run and racking up nine strikeouts. Both runs were home runs with the bases empty.

The 40-year-old ace has made four starts this season and he should be good for 95-100 pitches as long as he is effective. Similar to Scherzer, Verlander still challenges hitters, so while he may cede a home run or two, there is a pretty decent chance he can carve out a quality start tonight with a little luck.

Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez at Oakland Athletics — 3.2 implied runs

First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET

• DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $11,600 | Yahoo $55

In this same matchup on Sunday, in Houston, LHP Framber Valdez authored a complete game shutout with seven strikeouts and only four baserunners. Valdez has eight quality starts in 10 chances and he should be able to notch one today, bringing him into a tie with league leaders Marcus Stroman and Shane Bieber. Across his last 1,184 batters faced, Valdez has a ridiculous negative 2.5 launch angle, which has resulted in an absurd 65.7% ground ball rate. Essentially he is matchup proof and while the Athletics are better against southpaws than right-handed hurlers, they do not have any above-average hitters outside of Ramon Laureano, the venerable 32-year-old Jesus Aguilar, and Brent Rooker who is so far out over his skis it isn’t even funny.

Early Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.1 implied runs

First Pitch: 4:10p.m. ET

• DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $48

This is a strong matchup for RHP Luis Castillo as the Pittsburgh offense has struck out 23.7% of the time against right-handed pitching over the last season and change, while also producing a 91 wRC+ and .145 ISO, which are each the sixth worst in the league during the same timeframe. The 30-year-old Seattle ace has been dialed in all season with his 2.97 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings all approaching career bests. He has been a little lucky as evidenced by his 3.90 xERA and 3.36 xFIP, but that should not dissuade anyone from making him a key cog in lineups this afternoon.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Cincinnati Reds at RHP Jameson Taillon — 4.0 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET

For the main slate, gamers of course will be flocking to the Mets as they square off against RHP Chase Anderson in Coors Field along with a lofty 6.6 implied run total. The next obvious spot will be the Chicago Cubs hosting RHP Brandon Williamson, which does look like a savvy strategy. Then it will be the Boston Red Sox in Arizona against RHP Zach Davies. Going against Davies is a bit of a trap as he always seems to find a way to survive more often than not. Even in his age-29 season last year, he allowed only a 4.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, mostly by limiting hard contact.

Last year Davies allowed more than four runs only four times in his 27 starts. Yes, in 2021 he had a career-worst season and he was a piñata allowing five or more runs eight times in 32 outings. However, in the abbreviated 2020 season, he did not allow more than three runs in any start, and in 2019 it was just four poor outings. All told, in his last 102 starts heading into this season, the journeyman ceded five or more runs only 16 times which is just 15.6% of his starts.

Back to RHP Jameson Taillon, his stat line is reminiscent of a tire fire inside of a dumpster fire. After being a prospect forever, gamers seem to have lost the plot as Taillon, who debuted back in 2016 with the Pirates, will be making his 151st career start today as a 31-year-old. In his four May starts, he has pitched beyond the third inning only once, while suffering a 12.08 ERA with a pair of two-home run games.

Power has been the main culprit and over the last three seasons in 68 starts, Taillon has ceded 1.42 home runs per nine innings compared to a 0.93 rate through the first half of his career across 82 appearances.

Though the Cincinnati offense is not particularly exciting, they also do not have many easy outs. Jake Fraley (.205 ISO) and T.J. Friedl (.182 ISO) both have elite power against opposite-handed pitching and they are strong options against Taillon (.208 ISO) for both DFS and in the home run market.

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Catcher Tyler Stephenson should be in the heart of the order and he is a great option to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, and relative unknown Matt McLain can be used to round out full-stacks. The Cubs have a decent, though not spectacular bullpen and the Reds are going to be underrepresented in tournaments with the Coors Field Extravaganza putting the Mets on everyone’s mind.

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Early Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Vincent Velasquez — 4.6 implied runs

First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Pittsburgh will be slotting veteran RHP Vincent Velasquez into the rotation after he missed the last three weeks with elbow soreness. The venerable veteran who turns 31 in June did make one rehabilitation start for Triple-A Indianapolis, logging four scoreless innings on 63 pitches.

Velasquez has value as an innings-eater, but his subpar  22.1% strikeout rate and above-average walk rate (8.1%) can lead to crooked numbers with his 45% fly ball and 43% hard contact rates. If things go sideways, the Pirates could always bring in LHP Luis Ortiz who had his start pushed back to tomorrow, or RHP Roansy Contreras who last took the mound on Sunday and is likely to get some bullpen work before his next scheduled start a week from today.

The Seattle offense is underrated and since the beginning of last year, the current collection of hitters has produced a 112 wRC+ and a .174 ISO against right-handed pitchers. Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, and catcher Cal Raleigh, who is also the reigning American League Rookie of the Year are the names we are familiar with. The names which get lost in the shuffle are veterans Ty France (.165 ISO vs RHPs), Teoscar Hernandez (.172 ISO), and late-bloomer Jarred Kelenic (.198 ISO). The bottom of the order should also have Taylor Trammell and unproven Jose Caballero who are at near minimum salaries on most DFS sites. There are plenty of ways to stack the Mariners, which makes them a malleable option for full and mini-stacks.

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Early Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers at RHP Dean Kremer — 4.5 implied runs

First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

Will the real Dean Kremer please stand up?! The 27-year-old righty has been an enigma this season with a 6.67 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his first six starts, but since the calendar has turned, he has a 1.96 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four May appearances. Kremer allows a ton of contact and his 17.6% strikeout rate over his last 739 batters faced show that he has a hard time pitching out of jams, without fortuitous hits right at the defenders backing him up.

The Texas offense has been amazing this season and things went up a level with the return of Corey Seager (hamstring). Catcher Mitch Garver should be back in action at some point and that will make this lineup even deeper. Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis Garcia rival most foursomes across the league. Then there is budding slugger Josh Jung at the hot corner and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim. The back of the lineup is strong as well with Robbie Grossman being a below-average option in the two-hole, to a luxury switch-hitting bat towards the bottom of the order with the return of Seager. Add in switch-hitting outfielder Leody Taveras who has a little speed on the base paths and provides differentiation from the last slot in the lineup as part of a wraparound-stack.

Final Thoughts for Saturday, May 27 | MLB DFS Picks

Saturday of the three-day holiday weekend should have no precipitation issues and pleasant weather at most outdoor venues.

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