MLB Bet Pro nailed a couple more picks yesterday, so the weekly mark is up to 10-3. If you have been tailing the last five days, you are definitely up — and potentially up big. Tonight we are going to keep it going by turning to MLB Bet Pro once more to target some MLB player props, with some focus on the pitcher starting for the Giants against Baltimore. A couple of the top props tonight center around him and could make for a correlation parlay play. Let’s dive in.
Please note that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | June 2
3. Anthony Santander Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135, BetMGM)
Santander’s pitching matchup will be covered later, and this bet could even be correlative with that one as a parlay if desired.
Santander gets Logan Webb, a steady pitcher who makes it deep into games, strikes batters out at a decent clip and does not allow much power — even in opposite-handed matchups. Webb is allowing a .128 ISO and a .368 slugging to lefties this year — and Santander is worse against righties anyway, seeing a 200-point drop in OPS in the split. So though Santander is red hot and has cleared the 1.5 line in three straight games, this is the exact type of matchup that works against him.
MLB Bet Pro projects him for only 1.2 total bases, leading to a 64% expected win rate and an 11% EV.
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2. Jon Gray Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128, FanDuel)
Gray averages about a strikeout per inning and a 24% strikeout rate for his career, but this year he is well below that, and 10 starts could be considered a large enough sample for what to expect this season. He is down to just 7.2 strikeouts per nine and a sub-20% rate in 2023. Gray has hit the over on 6.5 three times in those 10 starts, but he has more two-strikeout games (four) than he has overs.
The Mariners are one of MLB’s most strikeout-prone teams, but at his typical rate, Gray would have to essentially pitch a complete game to get to seven strikeouts. Even if one pumps up his projection up a bit for the matchup, he has only gone seven innings or more in three starts, and two of his three overs on 6.5 came in those games. That long of an outing is tough to anticipate against a solid Mariners lineup, so the under is strongly the play here. MLB Bet Pro gives it a 64% win expectancy and 15% EV.
1. Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102, Caesars)
Webb is the picture of stamina and efficiency. He has made it into the seventh inning in eight of 11 starts, finishing the seventh in five of those, and at a rate of 9.5 strikeouts per nine, six innings is more than enough to eclipse 5.5 tonight. The Orioles are below average as a strikeout target and the projected lineup has six left-handed hitters, but Webb’s strikeout rate against lefties is still a solid 24.4%. He almost always gets through six innings, and as long as he does so again, Webb is in great position to get six strikeouts.
MLB Bet Pro gives this over a slate-high 18% EV and a 58% win rate, and as always, plus-money bets with over 50-50 win expectancies have high value.
