NBA DFS Picks, Building Blocks: One, Two, Three, South Beach! (May 23)

Tuesday’s NBA action hopefully has Boston showing a little more fight than it did on Sunday. Tonight contests lock at 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum and more.

NBA DFS Picks Today: Tuesday, May 23

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Core Play of the Day — Jimmy Butler — Miami Heat

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.91 | FanDuel: 53.57
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 63.3% | FanDuel: 60.1%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,400 | FanDuel: $17,500

In Game 1, the Celtics allowed the Heat back into the mix by ceding 46 points in the third quarter. Game 2, it was a fourth quarter meltdown. Game 3, well, it was close in the first quarter, but Miami started to create separation in the second quarter and had a 91-63 lead midway through the third frame. Both teams emptied the bench in the fourth quarter, and that was that.

If Boston is only going to go through the motions again tonight, this will be a laugher that will make Game 3’s average lead of 16.97 points seem like a close fought affair.

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Jimmy Butler was only needed for 31 minutes, but he was otherwise on pace for his fifth 50-fantasy-point performance in the last six games. The most impressive thing from him this series — other than leading the Heat to the cusp of an NBA Finals appearance — is that he has 11 steals and two blocks to his credit. The scoring will be there, along with 12 and 15 combined rebounds and assists, but it is those defense stats that have him continually being one of the best fantasy producers on the court.

Sunday things were so out of hand that Bam Adebayo needed to play just 26 minutes. This was coming off a game where he narrowly missed a triple-double of 22 points, 17 rebounds and nine assists. While we should not expect that again this postseason, Adebayo has an excellent floor, and a trip to the 40-fantasy-point plateau is certainly on the agenda.

Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin both had ceiling games, and they were a combined 18 of 29 (62.1%) from the field. Once again they are among the gaggle of secondary Miami players who will pop off from time to time but have enough pedestrian games as well to keep salaries in check. This duo could succeed again, or perhaps tonight it will be Kyle Lowry and Max Strus.

Duncan Robinson now has authored two excellent games, mostly on the strength of his 3-point ability, sinking 8 of 13 (61.5%). His Game 1 dud of seven minutes and literally no fantasy points — missing both of his field goal attempts — does seem to be in the rearview mirror, but it needs to be noted to underscore the fragility of his role.

Kevin Love started but played only five minutes, as Boston elected to go with a three-guard lineup that made it tough for him to hide on defense. When the game was in hand, it was Cody Zeller getting the mop-up duty. Both of these players are risky options tonight.

Jayson Tatum — Boston Celtics

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.59 | FanDuel: 50.14
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 69.1% | FanDuel: 60.7%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,600 | FanDuel: $17,000

It appears that everyone is on the hot seat in the Boston organization, from head coach Joe Mazzulla to general manager Brad Stevens and, of course, those wearing Celtics uniforms. Keep in mind that Mazzulla went from being an assistant coach to the lead job when Ime Udoka was suspended indefinitely. That is a tough row to hoe, but now there are calls for Stevens to take the reins and resume his head coaching role.

The spotlight is shining brightly on Boston, and it will be interesting to see how the players respond on the court. This has been a long season for the players, particularly when we remember that they were in the NBA Finals last year. Yes, load management and fewer practices are designed to mitigate this, but considering the first two series went for six and seven games, that is a lot of high intensity basketball in a short period of time, with the regulars logging major minutes.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both going to need to answer the bell tonight in a big way and right from tipoff, or the Celtics season is over. There is not much else to add ,as we have seen this team take the court 16 times since mid-April. Al Horford’s minutes have declined for three consecutive games, and he has scored only 25 points in his last six games. Robert Williams III is likely to continue coming off the bench — but with the season hanging in the balance, he could see north of 25 minutes if he is performing well.

Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon have looked more like glorified role players rather than key members of the rotation. If their spirits and effort are up tonight, they could snap out of it — but that is a big ask.

Grant Williams will be fired up, but will he be effective is another matter entirely. It almost feels like Payton Pritchard has a path to success tonight, outside of mop-up duty if he gets pressed into action to help space the floor in the event White or Brogdon struggle. Hopefully we get a good game tonight, and at least the oddsmakers have things close, with the Heat currently 2.5-point favorites.

Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities

For tonight’s action, look to Kevin Love in the wagering market, particularly with his 11.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. In the last game, he was limited to only five minutes, and there could be a reprise of that outcome again tonight.

NBA Bet Pro currently has Love projected for 15.2 minutes, 5.79 points, 4.98 rebounds and 1.04 assists for 11.81 PRA. Even though this projection is slightly higher than the 11.5 threshold, this is a median projection. In actuality there is a 59% probability that Love fails to get the 12 PRA needed to surpass tonight’s milestone, and even with -110 line at BetMGM, this play projects out to a decent 4.3% expected ROI.

In Game 1 Love played 16 minutes and recorded 8 points on 3 of 4 (75%) shooting and six rebounds. In Game 2 that slipped to 14 minutes, 0-for-3 from the field for no points, five rebounds and two assists. Matchups make a big difference, and since the Milwaukee series, Love has played in nine games, starting each, while averaging 17.1 minutes, 5.3 field goal attempts, 5.4 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Unders are not fun to root for, but this does look like one of the better plays on the board.

Keep in mind that, with only one matchup per day, finding major value is unlikely, so consider using bonus bets and boosters to aid in the quest to remain profitable.

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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

When you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock show at 7:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by BetMGM— new customers sign up by going through this link and receive 30 days of Stokastic+ Premium AND a bet credits up to $1,000 on your first wager.

Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].