Friday wraps up the work week with Game 4 of the NBA Finals. The action tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, and there are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Will Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo rally the regulars, or can Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray make it a double in South Beach? Let’s dig into the NBA DFS core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, June 9
Core Play of the Day — Bam Adebayo — Miami Heat
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 42.59 | FanDuel: 42.05
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 55.7% | FanDuel: 45.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,000
Tyler Herro has not been cleared to return to action after suffering a fractured right hand in Game 1 against Milwaukee. There is a chance he could be ready for Game 5 in Denver on Monday.
Matchups make fights, as they say, and Bam Adebayo has certainly done his part in this series, with three consecutive games with at least 21 points. For perspective, in the final five games of the Boston series, Adebayo scored more than 13 points only once. He did go 8 of 10 from the free-throw line, which was his third-most makes in his 69 career playoff games.
Through a trio of tilts, the former Kentucky Wildcat is averaging 40.3 minutes and 20.0 field goal attempts with a 46.7% conversion rate. This has resulted in 23.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 block.
Look for any of the fantasy sites that offer player parlays such as PrizePicks and take the over on anything below 39.5 fantasy points.
Jimmy Butler tallied 20 points for a second straight game, with 28. However, there were not many other stats accompanying the scoring, so he failed to reach the 40-fantasy-point plateau for the second time this series. Expect Butler to come out on a mission, as he seemingly has time and again this postseason. Keep in mind how many times he has rallied in elimination games during these playoffs, and the Heat were the only team to win in Denver thus far. Butler is particularly intriguing on FanDuel ($14,500), where his salary has decreased for the sixth game in a row and now sits at a postseason low.
Gabe Vincent and Max Strus both struggled from the field, with a combined 3-for-17 (17.6%) that was pulled down by their 2-for-10 (20.0%) from long distance. Vincent will at least be on the court for 30 to 35 minutes as the lead facilitator, but with most possessions running through Butler and Adebayo, his opportunities are limited, as he barely posts a 20% usage rate. Strus is even more tenuous since he tends to be glued to the bench after subbing out in the third quarter. Aside from blowout run, do not expect to see him in the fourth quarter for the rest of the series.
Kyle Lowry played just over 29 minutes off the bench, and he should play most of the fourth quarter if this game is close. It may be nerve-wracking seeing him on the bench prior to crunch time, but even with a 20-ish fantasy point projection, he is one of the better DraftKings ($4,600) salary savers. If he lucks out with a couple of 3’s and a steal or two, Lowry could flirt with 30 fantasy points, though he has not reached those heights since the final game in the New York series.
Kevin Love played only 16 minutes and just missed out on double-digit fantasy points. FanDuel ($8,000) held his salary firm, while DraftKings ($3,000) gave him a 20% increase. We know Love is highly unlikely to see the floor much in the second half, but he can still post 15 combined blocks and rebounds in limited action. He continues to be a strong option on DraftKings in all formats, though on FanDuel he is more of a tournament differentiation play, with a cumulative pOWN% in the 25% to 30% range.
Caleb Martin continued his reserve role in Game 3, though he did get 10 additional minutes as compared to Game 2, mostly by drawing around five minutes back from Love. Martin did play the majority of the fourth quarter and while that is likely going to be the case for the rest of the Finals, his impressive fantasy totals from the last series are highly unlikely to be replicated. Martin can be plugged in for just over 0.7 fantasy points per minute – with a minutes range spanning from 22 all the way to 34 – how is that for a broad range of outcomes?! Martin saw a $500 increase on FanDuel and a $400 decrease on DraftKings.
Cody Zeller played six minutes, with one foul as his only mark on the game. The team was +4 while he was on the floor, and he was active and just missed out on a couple of rebounds. He is still in consideration as an extreme punt on DraftKings ($1,200), though on FanDuel ($6,500) we really cannot afford to take a zero.
Duncan Robinson is likely to lose minutes once Herro returns, but for now he should see around 14 to 20 minutes. This series he has been entering the game towards the end of the first quarter/start of the second quarter. He at least has the opportunity to play himself into more court time if he can find his mark from beyond the arc. Robinson is worthy of our attention as a discount dandy on DraftKings, though his FanDuel value is limited due to the higher floor salary.
Haywood Highsmith played the final 2:27 minutes of the game, and while there is a chance he will get a first half rotation, the trend is not our friend unless Robinson is struggling or coach Spoelstra is looking to shake things up.
Nikola Jokic — Denver Nuggets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 68.49 | FanDuel: 63.96
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 70.6% | FanDuel: 69.4%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $14,800 | FanDuel: $17,500
How good was Nikola Jokic in Game 3? Well, other than setting an NBA Finals record triple-double with 32 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists — FanDuel actually revised their salary cap from $17,500 to $18,500 to account for this dominating performance. Even with this bump. Jokic remains the best point-per-dollar fantasy option on the blue site. What else is there to say other than just play Jokic.
Jamal Murray had a triple-double, and it was a doozy, with 34 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Jokic and Murray are the only two teammates to have a 30-point triple-double in the same game in NBA history. This makes three consecutive double-doubles as well for Murray, who is averaging 42.5 minutes and 19.7 field goal attempts with a 50.8% conversion rate, including 7.0 from downtown with a 38.1% success rate. This works out to 26.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 10.0 assists and 1.0 steal per game. The Stokastic projections have the talented guard with a mid-40s median fantasy point effort, though there is nearly a 45% chance he will get to 50 fantasy points.
Michael Porter Jr. is in a nosedive, and for the second straight game he drew the ire of his coach for some miscues and defensive lapses, resulting in a postseason-low 21 minutes. Even more concerning is rookie Christian Braun playing well in his stead and going 7-of-8 from the field, with a variety of dunks, layups and backdoor cuts. It would be a surprise if he is that successful again, but he has likely earned a first quarter rotation, directly at the expense of Porter. That makes the rookie a steal on DraftKings ($2.200) and very much in play on FanDuel ($7,000) considering he also is the most likely candidate for any mop-up duty.
Bruce Brown Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Gordon continue to be an interchangeable trio for coach Mike Malone, with each veteran capable of playing and defending multiple positions while also having no issue taking a backseat to the Jokic and Murray show. Each is in play, though it is hard to be excited about any particular player since so much of what they bring to the table does not translate into fantasy points.
Brown is arguably the best option because he is a capable facilitator who can play off the ball. The same can be said for Gordon, who also brings rebounding into the mix — but at a significantly higher salary. Caldwell-Pope is the differentiation option, and though unlikely, he could flirt with 20 fantasy points.
Jeff Green is a fun story, as he has been in the league for 16 years and played with 11 different franchises, including the Seattle SuperSonics before they were hijacked to Oklahoma City. That is still two shy of current teammate Ish Smith but impressive, nonetheless. Green mostly backs up Jokic and Gordon, but he also can play alongside either or function as the actual small-ball center, though it is unlikely the starting duo will ever both be off the floor at the same time. Green is a tough sell on FanDuel ($6,500) for his likely half dozen fantasy points, but he is a viable option on DraftKings ($1,800), particularly if Braun sees his projected popularity rise up to lock time.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Attack Porter in the sports wagering market while we can still get to the under on his 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. If his minutes continue to stay in the mid-20s, he will be hard-pressed to even come close to this figure unless he is raining down 3-pointers.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Porter projected for 29.7 minutes, 11.85 points, 5.44 rebounds and 0.93 assists for 18.22 PRA. While that median projection is higher than the 17.5 threshold, it is also available at -110 on BetMGM. This wager does not appear terrific on the surface, but the “True Odds” as shown on OddsShopper have this at +113 and a 2.9% expected ROI. If you believe we are going to get more of the same from Porter (Game 1: 26 minutes, 5 points, six rebounds, 11 PRA; Game 2: 21 minutes, 2 points, seven rebounds, nine PRA), then lock it in as a single-wager or as part of a parlay for higher upside.
Keep in mind that, with only one NBA matchup today, finding major value is unlikely, so consider using bonus bets and boosters to aid in the quest to remain profitable.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
When you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show 7:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Underdog Fantasy – new users, use this link receive a first deposit match up to $100.
