Chiefs at Buccaneers NFL DFS Showdown: Will Brady Pass the Torch to Mahomes on Week 4 SNF? (October 2)

Sunday Night Football should be a fun one as we have a pick’em between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. There are top options, as well as question marks and injuries on both sides that should give a potential edge to gamers who do their homework.

Heading into NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 4 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 4 Sunday Night Football

Kansas City saw both Mecole Hardman (heel) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (abdomen) limited in practice, though both are expected to play. Kicker Harrison Butker (ankle) is missing another game and Matt Ammendola was released after a disastrous Week 3. Defensive end Mike Danna (calf) is also out, but that is the extent of the new injuries.

Tampa Bay is listing both Julio Jones (knee) and Chris Godwin (hamstring) as game time decisions, though both at least had a couple limited practices this week and they should be back no later than Week 5. Breshad Perriman (knee/hamstring) is doubtful after not practicing all week and defensive end Akiem Hicks (foot) is out.

Kansas City Chiefs: 22.75 Points

Quarterback

This is far from an easy matchup with Tampa Bay boasting the best passing DVOA and the 10th rated rushing DVOA. The Buccaneers have held opposing quarterbacks to just under 230 passing yards per game with three touchdowns against five interceptions. Patrick Mahomes is of course essentially matchup proof, but we have seen the Kansas City offense take a step back with Tyreek Hill now plying his trade in Miami.

The Stokastic fantasy projections have Mahomes as the eighth best quarterback for Week 4 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Though Mahomes is mobile, he tends to use his agility to extend plays and give his receivers time to get open, rather than run the ball. Of course he is a threat to throw a touchdown on any given play, though we have yet to see another pass catcher step up with any sort of consistency to fill the void left by Hill. These two teams met in Week 12 back in 2020 in Tampa Bay and Mahomes engineered a 27-24 victory completing 37 of 49 attempts for 462 yards and a trio of touchdowns.

Running Back

The Kansas City running back committee is a mess. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 74 rushing yards against the Chargers in Week 2, though he accomplished this on just eight carries. The third-year back followed that up by netting zero rushing yards on seven totes, including a touchdown, in Week 3. Rookie Isiah Pacheco had the second most rushing yards this season with 62 in Week 1 against the Cardinals, but most of that came in the fourth quarter during mop up duty. Then there is veteran Jerick McKinnon who has led this motely crew in snaps each of the first three games. Unfortunately that has not led to much production as both Edwards-Helaire and Pacheco have more rushing yards and McKinnon has seen his targets fall each game from four, to three and then to only one against the Colts.

Wide Receiver

Newcomers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster lead this position in snaps with veteran Mecole Hardman not too far behind. Rookie Skyy Moore has played only 23 snaps and he fumbled a punt return last week and looked tentative on another. Journeyman Justin Watson has been dealing with a chest issue, but he has also been slow to work his way into the receiver rotation.

Valdes-Scantling just missed out on a long touchdown last week and it is only a matter of time before he and Mahomes connect on a deep ball. Smith-Schuster has essentially picked up most of the workload that had previously gone to Hill, but of course he runs much shorter routes. Hardman has never been able to put it all together, but with Mahomes at quarterback, he will have moments this year. It is still crazy that he has only one 100 yard game through 51 regular season appearances.

Tight End

Travis Kelce is the defacto WR1 in this offense and he leads the team with 24 targets, 230 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. Noah Gray is the touchdown lotter option and he has at least two targets in each game. Jody Fortson has two targets on the season, but naturally one was for a one-yard touchdown in the season opener. The Buccaneers have yet to allow a tight end touchdown, though they have not squared off against anyone close to Kelce’s talent level.

Defense/Special Teams

This season Kansas City has 10 sacks, with just two takeaways. Even with their shaky offensive line, Tampa Bay has allowed just half a dozen sacks and one interception.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 22.75 Points

Quarterback

Tom Brady has thrown just one touchdown pass in each of the first three games and he has more than 215 passing yards only once. Quietly the Chiefs have put together a good all-around defense with the sixth best rushing DVOA and they are in the middle of the pack against the pass. Brady should be better now that Mike Evans is back from his one game suspension, however, the rest of the receiving corps is dealing with a variety of maladies. It also hurts that Rob Gronkowski is back in retirement and Antonio Brown is spending his days in hot tubs.

Running Back

The injuries to the offensive line have led to a dreadful rushing attack that is in the bottom five of the league. While Brady still has a quick release, which helps limit sacks, not having a running game has hampered the 45-year-old all most as much as the barren receiving cupboard. Leonard Fournette has done most of the heavy lifting, though his efficiency has taken a hit compared to last season. Rookie Rachaad White is the only other running back to see the field and his snaps and opportunities have dipped each week leading to just six plays last Sunday and no touches or targets.

Wide Receiver

Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are the only receivers to play in each of the first three games. Unfortunately, Perriman is likely to miss with a hamstring issue that kept him out of practice all week. Chris Godwin came back from a knee injury suffered last season only to hurt his hamstring in the opener. Julio Jones looked spry in Week 1, only to suffer an inevitable nagging injury and be placed on the shelf for the last two weeks. Fortunately Evans is back and that should be enough to help free up Gage or one of the injured players if they are able to suit up.

If Jones or Godwin returns, that should keep Cole Beasley in street clothes after he came in off the couch for nine snaps and three receptions last week. If both return, the long time Buc Scotty Miller falls down the pecking order. We will know more when the final inactive reports come out 90 minutes before kickoff.

Tight End

Cameron Brate continues to see the most snaps, though off season acquisition Kyle Rudolph finally was able to take the field in Week 3 getting into the game for nine plays and one target. Brate leads the position with 11 of the 14 targets and he is interesting as a salary saver on DraftKings ($3,600) and FanDuel ($6,500).

Defense/Special Teams

On the season, Mahomes has been sacked only twice with one interception. The Buccaneers do have 11 sacks, five interceptions and three fumble recoveries, so they likely have an above average chance for a splash play.

Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 4 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
2. Mike Evans: Everyone knows the ball will be headed his direction, but KC still has to stop it.
3. Leonard Fournette: Volume is there, the efficiency is dicey – look for him to get his first score of the season tonight.
4. Travis Kelce: Second highest salary on DraftKings, third highest on FanDuel – find a way to get him in some lineups.
5. Russell Gage: Drop him down two spots if either Godwin or Jones make it back.
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster: Circumstances are aligning for a potential target hog situation.
7. Tom Brady: Finally show major signs of slowing down, can still bring the mojo, but it is limited with this supporting cast.
8. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Shared backfield does not feel great at all, but he has at least been productive in the passing game compared to prior seasons.
9. Jerick McKinnon: He is still the third down back over Edwards-Helaire and the $3,200 discount on DraftKings to his counterpart keeps him in play.
10. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Can bring a smile to his supporters with just one long catch.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Julio Jones and Chris Godwin: if both return, this is a reasonable ranking, if one returns, then they slot in just above the Kansas City running backs.
2. Ryan Succop: Only three attempts from beyond 50 yards over the last 36 games, but he is nails inside that distance.
3. Mecole Hardman: Still a DFS darling, but we are kidding ourselves at this point of any breakout season. May take over punt return duties from Moore.
4. Matthew Wright: One game with Pittsburgh in 2020 and seven with Jacksonville last year – three year starter for the University of Central Florida.
5. Buccaneers D/ST: Still a solid unit across the board, fairly priced at $3,200 on DraftKings. Dart throw on FanDuel at $9,500.

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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Cameron Brate: Still not getting many looks, despite a depleted pass catching crew.
2. Kansas City D/ST: Nearly a 40% premium over the home team unit on DraftKings is steep. Coinflip on FanDuel where the Bucs and Chiefs are both $9,500.
3. Rachaad White: No touches last week, just eight carries for 15 yards and four targets for two receptions and seven yards this season. Still at $600 on DraftKings, he is an in-game injury to Fournette away from a dozen touches. Returns kickoffs.
4. Isiah Pacheco: Definitely in play over White on FanDuel at the same $7,000 salary, just a tick below at $3,300 on DraftKings, but he should get half a dozen touches – all of his upside comes down to a lucky touchdown or late game mop up duty. Returns kickoffs.
5. Noah Gray: Playing for a touchdown.
6. Cole Beasley, Scotty Miller and Justin Watson: Deep down the pecking order for their respective teams. If neither Godwin or Jones suits up, Beasley and Miller are viable punt options around lineup iteration #20.
7. Kyle Rudolph: Veteran tight end with the greatest quarterback of all time, red zone dart throw.
8. Jody Fortson, Skyy Moore, Jaelon Darden, Ko Kieft and Michael Burton: Moore (for now) and Darden return kicks and get a couple offensive snaps. Over under for this whole group is 4.5 combined touches.

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