The Panthers meet their division rival Falcons for the first time this season riding a two game win streak. The Falcons were embarrassed on the road at Lambeau Field a week ago and are looking to get their season back on track after an atrocious 0-4 start. Can Matt Ryan and company get in the win column? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 12 games on tap for Week 5 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into the Panthers – Falcons NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
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Carolina Panthers (25.5) at Atlanta Falcons (28) – 1:00 p.m.ET
Carolina Passing Game
It was the most effective game of the young season for Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was second in the NFL in Week 4 with 19.3 total expected points added, second best among quarterbacks. It was his first game above seven in this metric and a far cry from his two total expected points added in last week’s victory against Chargers. Bridgewater also dropped back to pass 40 times, in line with NFL averages. He’s 26th in air yards per game. His average depth of target remains quite low, bottom third in the league and in line with other “game manager” quarterbacks such as Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Nick Mullens. Bridgewater may have some touchdown regression coming though, as he ranks 16th among quarterbacks in expected points added per play but just 24th in true drive success rate.
Against the Falcons, however, Bridgewater could be in line for a monster game. The Falcons can’t stop anyone defensively. They’re currently ranked 30th among all teams in points allowed per play. They’re ranked ninth worst in PFF’s pass coverage rating and are dealing with a slew of injuries to their secondary, to boot. Football Outsiders has Atlanta ranked as the 31st pass defense (via DVOA) in the entire league, prior to the injury problems. In a pass-friendly game environment, Bridgewater may be forced to increase his tempo and push the ball downfield, which could lead to increased production as well. He’ll certainly have high ownership, but as the 13th-highest-salary quarterback this weekend, he presents a clear value when comparing his price to his projection.
Robby Anderson has now surpassed teammate D.J. Moore in target share and is nipping at his heels in true air yards share. He has emerged as the surprise first option among Panthers wide receivers. Moore still has a lead over Anderson in true weighted opportunity share (he ranks ninth among receivers), but Anderson is an impressive 13th. Anderson now has three games of 99-plus yards receiving and has yet to dip under 50 yards. He has been significantly more efficient, ranking 11th among wideouts in receiver air conversion rate. Anderson and Moore are now priced similarly as well, with Moore only $100 more than Anderson on DraftKings this weekend. Curtis Samuels‘ 51 yards receiving in Week 4 was his best output of the season thus far. He’s a distant fourth on the team targets and will be tough to stomach as the 36th-highest-priced receiver on the board. Tight ends Chris Manhertz and Ian Thomas have combined for 20, eight, nine and 22 yards this season. You’re simply praying for a touchdown if you play them in lineups this weekend.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the Day Awesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.Carolina Rushing Game
Mike Davis continues his best Christian McCaffrey impression, now ranking second among all running backs in true weighted opportunity share and first in receiver air conversion ratio. Even as his salary on DraftKings approaches the top 10 among backs, Davis’ rock-solid floor from his receiving workload and massive touchdown upside in this likely shootout make him a value even at an increased price. Davis’ opportunity is further solidified by the Panthers placing Reggie Bonnafon on injured reserve this week. Samuel continues to receive occasional carries, but his 6% rush share in Week 4 was his lowest total in three weeks.
Atlanta Passing Game
It was a mess of a Week 4 for the Falcons, who in a span of two quarters transformed from a prolific passing offense with two surefire fantasy options to a hapless, discombobulated trainwreck, seemingly forced to lean on the running game. It was the only thing allowing their defense – which was busy being simultaneously pummeled on drive after drive by Aaron Rodgers and getting decimated by injuries – any modicum of rest. Ryan continues to slip in efficiency, now ranking outside the top 20 in true drive success rate and outside the top 25 in expected points added per play. But the volume remains extremely palatable for fantasy purposes (Ryan is first in average passing air yards per game). Week 4 should serve as a reminder of the week-to-week volatility of this offense. Luckily for Atlanta, the Panthers are nowhere in the same universe as last week’s opponent defensively, ranking 15th in PFF’s coverage grade and 24th in overall defense.
With the second quarter exit of wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring), and with Calvin Ridley less than 100% (and bottled up by Packers’ cornerback Jaire Alexander), the leader in target share and in receiving yards became Olamide Zaccheaus, the second-year undrafted receiver out of Virginia. Zaccheaus’ eight receptions in Week 4 are a new career high.
Ridley’s zero catches can be somewhat attributed to injury, but it’s tough to see zero catches while leading the team in air yard share, as he has each of the last three weeks. It should be noted that Awesemo’s ownership projections indicate many fantasy gamers are predicting a bounce-back game for Ridley, and it’s certainly possible. But that’s not something we can count on, even in this plus-matchup for receivers. According to Awesemo projections, Ridley is a fade as the second-highest-priced receiver on the slate. Julio Jones isn’t much further down the list; he’s sixth among receivers in salary this weekend. If he plays, he might even have a better chance at returning value than Ridley.
Hayden Hurst continues to disappoint relative to preseason expectations. Even with Jones gone and Ridley a non-factor, Hurst only commanded 15% of the Falcons’ targets. Though admittedly, he has been efficient on his looks thus far, with games of 57 and 72 yards receiving under his belt this season. The volatility is massive for Hurst (exemplified by one receiving yard in Week 3), but so is the upside. He’s a value as the 11th-highest-salary tight end on the slate.
Atlanta Rushing Game
If going by PFF grades, Week 4 was Todd Gurley’s best performance as a rusher since Week 6 of 2018. It was vintage Gurley against the Packers, avoiding eight tackles, a new career high. The defense he was up against was, admittedly, selling-out to stop the pass, up multiple scores for most of the game, but this is by far the most encouraging news for the Falcons. The 63 yards rushing (when the underlying performance was graded so positively) is also incredibly disheartening. If Gurley continues to perform this well, the production will almost surely come, and Week 5 against the Panthers’ dead-last rush defense (PFF) could very well be the blowup week for Gurley. Brian Hill and Ito Smith have combined for 12%, 15%, 22%, and 18% of the Falcons’ touches, simply serving as Gurley’s breather backs. Neither has been targeted more than three times in a game this season.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 21
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