NFL DFS Stacks Conference Finals: Bengals Projected to Come Out on Top

The Conference Championships are here and present us with our last multi-game slate of the NFL season. The offenses that remain all ranked in the top eight of points per game this season, so it’s tough for us to discount any of them. With things sitting very close in the matchups, using the top NFL DFS stacks tool on Stokastic will become more helpful than ever this week as we try and determine who to build around on such a small slate.

Kansas City and Philadelphia own the largest implied team totals at 24.5 points. It’s interesting that the Chiefs still rank so highly in this area given the injury to Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes will play but has been dealing with a high ankle sprain all week, which will likely limit his mobility. Both the 49ers and Bengals also have implied team totals over 22, so again, the expectation this weekend is that any one of these four teams could end up leading in both actual and fantasy scoring.

This article will again rely on Stokastic’s top NFL DFS stacks tool to identify the strongest spots. Using the tool, let’s go over the top teams in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections and the lower-owned teams that may make for sharp contrarian pivots in larger-field DFS tournaments.

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Top NFL DFS Stacks for Conference Championships

Top NFL DFS Stack: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals currently sit as 1.5-point underdogs but rank out first in top stack probability on Stokastic. The result shouldn’t come as a shock. Even with a healthy Mahomes, the Chiefs lack the kind of explosive wide receiver that the Bengals have in Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has averaged over 12 targets in his last six starts and posted an efficient 7-97 line against the Chiefs in their Week 13 meeting.

The Chiefs have a defense that should allow Chase to flourish and potentially lead the slate in scoring. Kansas City gave up the second-most touchdowns on the season to wide receivers and can’t afford to sit back in this game and try and limit Chase, given how easily Joe Burrow picked them apart when they employed that strategy in Week 13.

Chase should get more one-on-one opportunities in this game, and he’ll line up against a young secondary that he has already found success against this season. If you’re looking for a good way to differentiate with a Burrow-Chase stack — which will be popular — think about employing Trenton Irwin as a third wheel. He had a 17% touchdown rate this year on just 23 targets and was a player the Bengals often subbed in once they got inside the red zone. The Chiefs gave up seven touchdowns to opposing wideouts within the red zone this season, the second-most in the league.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 33.1%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 33.6%

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Low-Owned NFL DFS Stack: Kansas City Chiefs 

The Patrick Mahomes situation will be an interesting one to watch play out this week. Despite the fact he’ll play at less than 100% with a high ankle sprain, the Chiefs still are tied with the Eagles for the highest implied team total on the slate. Kansas City also has a top stack probability on Stokastic of well over 25%, so while the Bengals or Eagles may have more upside, the Chiefs certainly rate out as an effective contrarian pivot, especially at quarterback.

Much like the Bengals, the Chiefs have an easy top target to pair their quarterback with as well in Travis Kelce. Kelce currently projects as the top-owned player on the slate, so while there’s definitely some risk in fading him, there’s also a fantastic leverage opportunity in making Mahomes stacks that center around wide receivers. As a note, Kelce only caught four passes against the Bengals in Week 13 and didn’t score a touchdown.

Kadarius Toney led Kansas City’s wide receivers in touches last week despite running just 12 routes. He figures to be more involved around the line of scrimmage — and potentially even as a running back — given Mahomes’ ankle issue. Using Toney with a selection of either JuJu Smith-Schuster or Jerick McKinnon would be a good way to get exposure to the Chiefs while also giving your lineup the ability to smash the slate if the Bengals can limit Kelce again.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 26.8%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 19.9%

Tournament Leverage NFL DFS Stack: San Francisco 49ers 

Everyone expects the 49ers to run the ball a ton in this game — and potentially for the Eagles to dominate against Brock Purdy, a rookie quarterback. It’s admittedly a tough spot on paper, but the 49ers have also won 12 games in a row, eight of which came with Purdy under center — so writing them off as a complete non-option in NFL DFS this week seems foolhardy.

The Eagles have had their issues defending opposing tight ends over the last few seasons. They allowed the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends in 2021. Backup tight end Lawrence Cager caught eight passes for 69 yards against them in Week 18, and if the 49ers find themselves playing from behind, George Kittle could lead this game in receiving.

Kittle recorded five touchdowns and finished with 90-plus yards in three of his last six games. Curiously enough, he is drawing little heat this week from a DFS perspective. He currently is projected for less than 25% ownership in the Stokastic ownership projections. A Purdy-Kittle stack will be one of the lowest-owned combinations on the slate and would mean you could easily fit in another high-end wide receiver from this game in either A.J. Brown or Deebo Samuel while still maintaining plenty of leverage.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 10.0%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 15.5%

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Geoff Ulrich

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