NFL DFS First Look Week 10: Tony Pollard, Justin Fields, Tyreek Hill

There are 10 NFL games on the schedule for this Sunday’s main slate. This NFL DFS first look article gives an early overview of the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each position.

NFL First Look: Week 10 NFL DFS Picks

As always, be sure to watch all of the Stokastic NFL shows on the Stokastic YouTube Channel all the way up to lock to get the breaking news and best Week 10 NFL DFS picks.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. CLE ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

Tagovailoa has been outstanding in the five full games he has played this season, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt with an elite 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is producing 26.8 DraftKings points per game in these five starts and is facing a Browns defense that is the eighth-worst-graded defense on PFF this Sunday. The Dolphins’ implied team total ranks third on the slate (26.25 points), and this game’s total is the second largest on the board (48.5 points). In this great spot, Tagovailoa should throw for multiple scores and 300-plus yards.

Justin Fields, CHI vs. DET ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

After a quiet start to the season, Fields has come alive over the last four weeks, mostly thanks to his aggressiveness as a rusher. During this four-game stretch, Fields ranks first among quarterbacks in carries per game (12.3) and red zone rushes (8). He has also seen heavier pass volume, averaging 24.75 pass attempts per game across these last four, which is a notable upgrade from the 17.6 attempts per game Fields was limited to in his first five starts of the season. The expanded role has resulted in 28.9 DraftKings points per game for Fields across his last four starts — which ranks first in the league among quarterbacks over this span — and Fields now ranks fourth in DraftKings points per dropback among quarterbacks for the season (0.65), only trailing Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.

For this Sunday, Fields gets fantasy football’s ultimate matchup in the Lions, who are allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the league (7.8) and are the fifth-worst-graded unit on PFF. This game’s total is the second highest on the slate (48.5 points), and the Bears’ implied team total is fifth largest on the board (25.5 points). Fields has never competed in a higher game total or played behind a higher implied team total during his career, and he shouldn’t disappoint in this dream spot.

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Running Backs

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. DEN ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)

While many expected Henry to take a step back this year, he has thrived as the most utilized rusher in the league. This season, Henry ranks first in carries per game (22.9) — which is 87% of the Titan’s carries — and seventh in red zone rushes (23), while playing 64.8% of the snaps. He leads all running backs in DraftKings points per snap (0.6) and should dominate as a 3-point home favorite over the Broncos this Sunday. Denver is yielding the sixth-most yards per rush (5), and Henry is averaging 23.1 DraftKings points per game as a favorite over the last three seasons.

Tony Pollard, DAL vs. GB ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Coming off the Cowboys’ bye, Ezekiel Elliott (knee/thigh) didn’t practice Monday, which was a light session for the team. While early in the week, this is obviously not an encouraging sign for Elliot, who was diagnosed for a Grade 2 MCL sprain before Dallas’ bye. In the likely situation that Elliott misses his second game of the season this Sunday, Pollard will be a free square for all formats.

Pollard started in place of Elliott in Week 8 and exploded for 36.7 DraftKings points against the Bears. In the win, Pollard saw 14 carries — which was 63.6% of the Cowboy’s running back carries — including two red zone attempts while logging 53.5% of the snaps. If Elliot is inactive, Pollard would be in line for 15 to 20 touches, with the Cowboys as 4.5-point favorites over the Packers. This season, Pollard is the third-highest-graded running back on PFF, ranks eighth among running backs in DraftKings points per touch (1.2) and is averaging 18 DraftKings points in games in which he has double-digit touches.

Dameon Pierce, HOU vs. NYG ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)

Pierce is vastly underpriced for his huge role and is in a strong spot this Sunday, going against a Giants defense that is the third worst-graded unit on PFF and giving up the second-most yards per carry (5.5). Among running backs, Pierce ranks fifth in carries per game (18.5) — which is 86.1% of the Texans running back carries — and ninth in red zone attempts (20) while logging 57% of the snaps. Pierce has also run a route on 38% of his team’s dropbacks and garnered a target on 22% of those routes. Pierce has 20-fantasy-point upside this week and is one of the best running back values available for this slate.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. CLE ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Hill has been brilliant with Tagovailoa under center this season, obtaining a target on an absurd 36% of his routes and scoring 28.4 DraftKings points per game in Tagovailoa’s five full games. Hill ranks first in targets over 20 yards this season with 21, which is the most in the NFL by four targets. No skill player brings a higher ceiling than Hill this Sunday, and he is well worth these lucrative price tags.

Juju Smith-Schuster, KC vs. JAX ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Smith-Schuster is an affordable way to gain a share of the Chiefs’ slate-high implied team total (30.25 points). He has seen a target on 20% of his route this season while running a route on 82% of his team’s dropbacks. Smith-Schuster is providing 24.2 DraftKings points per game across his last three starts and has a career average of 17 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points.

Christian Kirk, JAX vs. KC ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)

With the Jaguars as 9.5-point underdogs in this slate-high total against the Chiefs (51 points), Kirk should see heavy volume and is one of the better bargains at receiver. He is leading Jacksonville with a 24.9% target share this season, including 12 red zone targets, which ranks 10th among all skill players. Kirk is averaging 19.3 DraftKings points per game as an underdog this year as well (seven games).

Tight Ends

David Njoku, CLE vs. MIA ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

After sitting out Week 8 before the Browns’ bye, Njoku is expected to return this Sunday in time for this juicy matchup against the Dolphins. Among tight ends, he ranks ninth at his position in target share (18.92%) and sixth in red zone targets (8), and he is running a route on 75% of his team’s dropbacks. On top of giving up the seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7), Miami is surrendering the third-most catches (57), fifth-most yards (534) and fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends (4). Competing in this game that carries the second-highest total on the slate (48.5 points), Njoku is without a doubt one of the top tight end values on the board and an appealing, cheap bring-back option for Dolphins stacks.

Greg Dulcich, DEN vs. TEN ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

Since making his season debut in Week 6, Dulcich has been the Broncos’ featured tight end, ranking second on the team in target share (17.7%) while running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks. He has generated double-digit DraftKings points in all three of his games this season and should extended this streak against the Titans. Tennessee is yielding the fourth-most yards to tight ends this season (541), and the Denver’s offense should be forced into a pass-heavy gameplan as 3-point underdogs.

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