Week 12 Monday Night Football brings a matchup with a young Pittsburgh squad that has showed flashes of promise against a veteran Indianapolis crew that looks a little washed up, despite early-season playoff hopes.
Heading into NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 12 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Indianapolis Colts.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 12 MNF | Steelers-Colts
Pittsburgh will be without rookie running back Jaylen Warren (hamstring) and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) while backup wideout Miles Boykin (oblique) is questionable.
Indianapolis is missing defensive lineman Kwity Paye (ankle) and rookie tight end Kylen Granson (illness) is doubtful. Defensive linemen DeForest Buckner (ribs/illness) and Yannick Ngakoue (back) are questionable, along with linebacker Zaire Franklin (back).
Pittsburgh Steelers: 18.5 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections are granting rookie Kenny Pickett a decent projection that ranks in the middle of the pack with every quarterback seeing action during Week 12. This is rather lofty considering that Indianapolis has the 14th passing DVOA and 6th rushing DVOA per Football Outsiders. While the Colts have held fast from a yardage perspective, with no opposing signal-caller surpassing 280 yards, they have ceded two-touchdown games to Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence (twice, including one game where he rushed for a pair of scores), Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr. Jalen Hurts and Taylor Heinicke each got there with one passing and one running touchdown as well.
Pickett has had mixed results this season throwing for over 250 yards three times, albeit with only a trio of touchdown passes against eight interceptions. He also has been somewhat nimble, with around 20 rushing yards per game and another three scores. Though he is the third-most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, his salary is not going to break the bank. We should look to him first in the utility slot, though he does have merit in the multiplier role around lineup No. 20.
Running Back
Rookie Jaylen Warren (hamstring) has been ruled out, so that means second-year back Najee Harris should see the bulk of the opportunities. He has had an inconsistent year, when compared to his rookie campaign when he was on the field for nearly 90% of the snaps. Though he is coming off a two-touchdown game against Cincinnati, he has only five on the season in the anemic Pittsburgh offense, and those were his first since Week 6.
Veteran Benny Snell has seen the field on only three offensive plays, but he knows the offense and fantasy gamers are familiar with his skillset. DraftKings missed the boat, with Snell coming in at the $200 minimum, which makes him a viable option, even if he only gets a couple of looks. On FanDuel he is $5,500 — that is harder to find a profit, and he really needs to luck into a touchdown. Fullback Derek Watt should be on the field for around a dozen snaps, but he is more of a blocking option, with just six offensive opportunities all season.
Wide Receiver
It should be no surprise that Diontae Johnson leads the team in targets with 86, including six games with at least eight looks. However, he has been far from productive with just 51 receptions and 456 yards while still looking for his first touchdown. Even more concerning, he has five targets in each of the last two games while rookie George Pickens has matched him with 10 targets in these tilts. Pickens also has slightly outproduced Johnson, with 33 receptions, 453 yards and a pair of scores on 33 fewer opportunities. Considering JuJu Smith-Schuster is in Kansas City and Chase Claypool was a midseason trade chip sent to Chicago, it is hard to trust either of these fellows.
In the two games without Claypool, it has been long-time special teamer Gunner Olszewski and Washington castoff Steven Sims Jr. filling in as the third wide receiver. Miles Boykin has not seen his role change much at all as the fifth wideout.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth continues to improve after a stellar rookie season, and he had a wicked 12 targets last weekend. Though that is a lofty volume, half a dozen targets is a reasonable baseline, especially considering that rookies and inexperienced quarterbacks tend to rely on tight ends. Zach Gentry is a punt option on DraftKings at $2,200, though the three targets he saw in the last game were the second most of the season.
Defense/Special Teams
The Colts have ceded 19 turnovers and forced 10 interceptions and nine fumbles, which is tied for the most in the league. Pittsburgh is in the middle of the pack, with 14 takeaways. The Indianapolis offensive line and quarterback carousel is the gift that keeps on giving, with a league-worst four sacks per game. Of course, rookie Sam Ehlinger accounted for 11 of those in only two games, but that means the “savvy veteran” is suffering well over three sacks per game as well.
Indianapolis Colts: 21.0 Points
Quarterback
Rookie coach and longtime Indy offensive lineman Jeff Saturday has returned the reins back to veteran quarterback Matt Ryan. Of course, it seems that he does not realize that he was installed to oversee losses and improved draft capital, but after a victory in his NFL coaching debut, the Colts lost to the Eagles in his second game, albeit in a 17-16 nail-biter where Philadelphia needed a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter to eke out the victory.
We know what we are getting with the statuesque Ryan, who has no rushing upside and is playing behind a porous offensive line. If he has any time at all, he has decent pass catchers and can lean on one of the best running backs in the league, but the margins of error are incredibly thin.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor led the league in rushing last season by nearly 600 yards. This year he has been solid with just over 86 yards per game, which is just inside the top five. While he has been dinged up this season, he has not been nearly as explosive as last year recording only five carries of more than 20 yards. Keep in mind that Nyheim Hines was traded to Buffalo at the deadline for Zack Moss and a conditional sixth-round pick in the upcoming draft.
Now that Hines is in New York, the second running back duties have been handed over to rookie Deon Jackson. It will be hard for him to provide any fantasy value, but he has at least elevated himself over the flotsam and jetsam provided by waiver wire claim Phillip Lindsay, Indy veteran Jordan Wilkins and, of course, Moss himself. Caveat Emptor for the also-rans in the backfield.
Wide Receiver
Over the last seven games, Michael Pittman Jr. has been on the field for almost 97% of the offensive snaps. Parris Campbell is barely 10% behind, so it is not a surprise that this duo leads the team by a landslide with 92 and 80 targets. Alec Pierce has been the third wheel more often than not and has a solid 50 targets, though the ebb and flow of his workload has lacked stability.
Over the last two games, Ashton Dulin has played the fourth-most snaps, but he is well down the pecking order and he cannot be trusted for DFS purposes. Second-year man Mike Strachan has only played in a handful of games, and his upside is slim to none.
Tight End
Rookie Kylen Granson did not practice this week while dealing with an illness, so we will need to pay attention to his availability when inactives are announced. If he is in, he will share the workload with veteran Mo Alie-Cox. In the event Granson is out, then backup Jelani Woods would have a more prominent role. Either way it looks like Alie-Cox is secure is a discount dandy.
Defense/Special Teams
Indianapolis does a good job of pressuring opposing quarterbacks, as evidenced by eight consecutive games with multiple sacks. Pittsburgh is allowing nearly three sacks per game with their porous offensive line. On the turnover front both teams are averaging just over one takeaway/giveaway per tilt.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy For Steelers-Colts
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Week 12 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings For Steelers-Colts
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Steelers-Colts
- Jonathan Taylor: Clearly the “safest” option, with 22 carries and a score in each of the last two games; just three total touchdowns through eight games.
- Matt Ryan: Very well could be Matty Ice with the DraftKings snowflake icon, but he is the more experienced quarterback.
- Kenny Pickett: Seems to have a connection with his fellow rookie Pickens, could always scramble for a score.
- Najee Harris: Volume should be headed his way, along with the entire Indy defense.
- Michael Pittman: Would fare better if the Colts are trailing in the game.
- Pat Freiermuth: Muuuuuuuuuuuth!
- Diontae Johnson: Will find the end zone at some point … right?!
- Indianapolis D/ST: Home field advantage against a rookie quarterback.
- George Pickens: Electric playmaker, still very green.
- Chase McLaughlin: Four games with at least three field goal attempts, league average conversion rate while seeing action for six teams over the last four seasons.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Steelers-Colts
- Parris Campbell: Better in full-PPR, there is an argument for choosing him over any of the three wideouts listed in the top 10.
- Pittsburgh D/ST: Should be good for a handful of sacks and turnovers, if this game were in Pittsburgh, they would flip-flop rankings with the Colts D/ST.
- Matthew Wright: Three teams and 21 games over the last three seasons, this is his second stint with the Steelers after getting in a couple games with Kansas City as an injury fill-in.
- Alec Pierce: Well down the pecking order and hard to project production in a run-heavy offense.
- Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox: If Granson is out, Alie-Cox would move to the top of this section.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Steelers-Colts
- Benny Snell Jr.: Worthy of being a core play on at the DraftKings minimum $200 for the salary relief, this reflects his FanDuel ranking.
- Deon Jackson: Needs something to befall Taylor before he will see more than a handful of touches.
- Gunner Olszewski and Steven Sims Jr.: Two more DraftKings minimum salary options. Special teamers that make cameo appearances as backup wide receivers.
- Ashton Dulin, Zach Gentry and Jelani Woods: Legitimately will be on the field for offensive snaps, probably enough that you will at least hear the announcers mention them at some point. Sadly, that is not worth any bonus points.
- Zack Moss, Jordan Wilkins and Connor Heyward: Each needs multiple things to break their way before they will get any touches.
- Derek Watt and Miles Boykin: Whatevs.
- Keke Coutee: One reception, rarely plays offense – has three fumbles, losing one, as the punt returner.
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