In a lot of ways, this week marks the true beginning of the PGA Tour season, as it is the first time the truly elite will gather for a full-field event (one that will have a $20 million prize purse). The players will be on TPC Scottsdale once again in Phoenix, a venue that allows for scoring but also can lead to double bogies or worse in multiple spots.
The 132-man field will feature most of the world’s top 10 from the OWGR and include last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler, who used his win at this event last season to propel him to his first major at the Masters just a couple of months later.
Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.
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PGA DFS Picks: WM Phoenix Open Preview
With just one course in play, it is back to standard morning and afternoon waves teeing off on days 1 and 2. The cool desert weather this time of year can make early morning tee times a bit dicey and this year the highs in the morning will likely be in the 45- to 50-degree range. It’s not a huge advantage, but for betting (first-round leader) and DFS showdown lineups, afternoon starters will likely be better plays. Nine of the last 12 seasons at this event have seen at least one first-round leader come from the afternoon wave.
As for setup, TPC Scottsdale is a classic stadium-style venue with lots of variety that both challenges players and provides them an opportunity to score. It’s a longer par 71 at over 7,200 yards, and with the open desert layout, the driver is a club that the pros can take often. That means that solid drivers of the ball do have an advantage, and that fact has borne out in the stats somewhat with great off-tee players like Brooks Koepka (twice), Scottie Scheffler, and Gary Woodland all finding wins at this venue over the last five seasons.
Driving distance is key, but putting and strong approach play means a ton at this venue as well. Great long-iron players like Webb Simpson have been able to overcome a distance disadvantage and post big weeks. From a stat perspective, both strokes gained off the tee and on approach can be weighed equally with proximity from 150 to 175 yards and over 200 yards being the most popular baskets to focus on.
This venue also hasn’t really been one for long shots; 11 of the last 12 winners had finished seventh or better in one of their last five starts before their win at the WM Phoenix Open, while each of the past seven winners had posted a top-10 finish at this event in a season prior to their win.
In short, players with decent course history and solid recent form perform well. Don’t stray too far down the odds Monday morning when placing bets.
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Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:
- Max Homa: Homa is coming off his second win in five starts and sixth overall PGA win of his career. He is loaded with confidence and ranks out well in key stats. He finished 14th at this event last season and was sixth in 2019.
- Si Woo Kim: Kim won just a few starts ago in Hawaii and has followed that result up with some more solid play. He has made 11 cuts in a row now and placed 26th at this event last season.
- Collin Morikawa: Morikawa was an unlucky loser in his first start of 2023, melting down on Sunday at the Tournament of Champions under the headlights of a charging Jon Rahm. He played great at the Farmers, however, and ranks out first in proximity from 150 to 175 yards — a key range at this week’s venue. He was 25th at this event in 2020, his only start at this venue.
- Jason Day: Day continued his comeback tour at the Farmers, grinding his way to a seventh-place finish. He wasn’t as sharp with his ball-striking last week as he’s been in the past but he has now finished 21st or better in seven of his last eight starts.
- Sahith Theegala: Theegala has now posted three top-five finishes over his last seven PGA starts. In his second season on the PGA now, he looks like a winner in waiting and had the lead at this event late into Sunday before eventually settling for third.
Field notes: The field this week will be the first full-field elevated event of the season. Both of last year’s playoff combatants in Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler will be back… Other past winners in the field include Hideki Matsuyama (2016+17), Gary Woodland (2018), and Rickie Fowler (2019)… Fowler has missed the cut at this event the last two seasons but has been in far better form of late and is coming off an 11th at the Farmers where he gained over four strokes on approach… Rory McIlroy will be playing this event for only the second time in his career and placed 13th in 2021. He is coming off a win in Dubai just two weeks ago.
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WM Phoenix Open Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Scottie Scheffler (22-1)
- Lead-in: 20/25/57, (20th at Farmers and skipped Pebble)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 5.2/SG:APP -1.6/SG:ATG 2.8/SG:PUTT 6.5/SG:TTG 6.4
- Scheffler came in off a decent week at the Farmers but did take Pebble Beach off the week prior.
- The fact he lost strokes on approach is jarring but he also made few mistakes off the tee all week and made up plenty of strokes with his putter
- Being good in multiple areas is a bonus at TPC Scottsdale and Scheffler’s off-the-tee prowess and putting carries him last season
2021: Brooks Koepka (50-1)
- Lead in: MC/MC/MC (Koepka missed the cut at the Farmers but had posted two top 10s in two of his prior five PGA starts before winning)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.5/SG:APP 6.0/SG:ATG 0.5/SG:PUTT 3.0/SG:TTG 9.2
- Koepka had an ugly-looking record coming into this week but he was hitting the ball well just not posting results.
- Like each of the past three winners, he took the week off prior (but did play the Farmers).
2020: Webb Simpson (14-1)
- Lead-in: 3/2/7, (Simpson also took the week off prior to winning the WM Phoenix Open)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.5/SG:APP 7.5/SG:ATG -0.1/SG:PUTT 4.4/SG:TTG 9.5
- Simpson also came in well-rested having skipped the Farmers and Pebble Beach.
- He had finished runner-up at this venue before and dominated with his irons and on the greens
- Simpson was in top form when he won here and even his off-the-tee play was trending well
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
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2023 WM Phoenix Open Course Preview
TPC Scottsdale: Scottsdale, Arizona
Par 71, 7,200 to 7,300 yards
Greens: Bermuda
Designer: Tom Weiskopf (’86 and ’14)
Similar Courses: TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Sawgrass, PGA National
TPC Scottsdale is an original Tom Weiskopf design. He was also responsible for TPC Craig Ranch, which has some similarities and hosts the AT&T Byron Nelson down in Texas every season. Scottsdale is a longer par 71 that sets up between 7,200 and 7,300 yards for the pros and has a lot of unique holes that force the players to rely on a bunch of different skill sets throughout the week.
There are five par 4’s that measure between 450 and 500 yards — and three par 5’s that measure between 550 and 570 yards. As a result, there are quite a few mid- to long-iron approach shots during the week with the most popular two baskets being from 150 to 175 yards and over 200 yards. Good approach games are necessary, but players also need to get in tune with the hybrid greens which have some poa growing in this time of year. Scottie Scheffler actually lost strokes on approach last season but managed to gain over six strokes putting, making up the difference from his poor iron play.
The constant about TPC Scottsdale is the need to be a consistent driver of the golf ball. The average driving distance at this venue tends to be about 10 yards higher than normal and the more open layout allows players to grip and rip it off the tee often. That doesn’t mean golfers can be wild, however, and the back nine particularly brings water into play in several spots off the tee. The last six winners at this venue all gained 2.5 strokes or more off the tee for the week.
Most of the top players have played this venue multiple times before but a lot of course experience doesn’t hurt. TPC Scottsdale has multiple holes — like the raucous par-3 16th and the short but treacherous par-4 17th — where experience plays a factor and it’s worth noting that each of the past seven winners had posted a top-10 finish at this event prior to winning.
Key Stats: Strokes Gained Off the Tee/Fairways Gained/Proximity 150-200 yards + Over 200 Yards
2023 WM Phoenix Open Recent Form Watch
Top Approach Proximity 150-175 Yards (Last 50 Rounds)
- Tom Kim
- Joel Dahmen
- Collin Morikawa
- Mark Hubbard
- Will Zalatoris
Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Last 50 Rounds)
- Jon Rahm
- Cameron Young
- Rory McIlroy
- Keith Mitchell
- Brendan Steele
Top Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 Rounds)
- Tom Hoge
- Tom Kim
- Daniel Berger
- Xander Schauffele
- Will Zalatoris
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WM Phoenix Open Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 45-50 F, winds 5-7 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Thursday p.m.: 65-70 F, winds 7-9 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday a.m.: 45-50 F, winds 5-7 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday p.m.: 65-70 F, winds 7-9 mph/0% chance of precipitation
It’s Phoenix, so expect the sun to be shining most of the week. The only thing to note, weather-wise, is the fact the early desert mornings will be cold and will make the course play longer for the early starters. As mentioned above, nine of the last 12 iterations of this event have seen an afternoon starter be either a solo leader or partial leader after the first round of play. Afternoon starters likely are better targets for showdown lineups in DFS and first-round leader betting.
2023 WM Phoenix Open Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks
Im will be playing TPC Scottsdale for the fourth time in competition this season. He finished seventh on his first attempt on the course back in 2019 and won his first PGA event in a similar “high-pressure” environment at PGA National in 2020. Im had a terrific week at the Farmers Insurance Open, posting a fourth-place finish and gaining over seven strokes on approach. He’s now posted five top-eight finishes over his last 12 PGA starts and ranks out well in almost every key category over long and short-term form — including proximity from over 200 yards where he’s second in this field over the last 50 rounds. Im’s odds in this field are likely to be available at much better prices than many of the top players which makes him a great value add early Monday for an outright bet.
Noren has played some terrific golf of late, piling up three top-five finishes in a row. His last start out on the PGA Tour was in the fall where he finished fourth on a longer course in Houston and gained an eye-popping 9.3 strokes ball striking for the week. That kind of form seems to have flowed over to 2023 for him after a fifth-place finish in Abu Dhabi a few weeks back. He comes into this week well-rested and ready for his fourth career start at TPC Scottsdale. Noren finished sixth at this event last season, and with his long game showing better form, he’s the kind of player to target for top-10 and top-5 bets this week.
