It’s difficult to overstate how dominant Derrick Henry is; he missed eight games last season and was still one of the best running backs in the league. His 2021 stats are bewildering considering that he missed nine complete games. He was top 10 in rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns and longest run. Statically, he is the elite of the elite, and it’s not even close. Henry was on pace to easily beat Jonathan Taylor in every rushing category in 2021.
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Derek Henry 2022 Best Ball Profile | Fantasy Football
When Henry plays, he scores; it’s that simple. Henry isn’t a boom-or-bust player — it’s all boom for him. Outside of games missed because of injury, there is little to no concern about his output. In the last three seasons, he was top five in running back yards per game. Over that same time period, he was top five in running back yards per game. Look at his stats versus the rest of the running backs in the league over the last three years, including his injury-shortened season.
In fantasy points and in actual yardage, Henry has been dominant. No other running back breaks into the top 15 of both categories in each of the past three seasons.
2022 Titans Overview
In 2021, the Titans ranked second in time of possession. This means a slower game pace, which also means having the ball in the hands of your workhorse running back. According to ESPN, the Titans had a team pass block win rate of only 56% but a run block win rate of 69%, proving that the Titans are focused on being a run-heavy offense. Tannehill was a top-15 quarterback in 2015, but repeating that is going to be tough given the current Titans receiving core. The biggest offseason receiver pickup for the Titans was Robert Woods, who is coming off of a torn ACL.
Henry was one reception short of his career-high mark for catches in half the games. His targets have been increasing every season, and with no A.J. Brown on the roster, that ball is going to have to be spread around more. Last season’s wide receiver targets only accounted for 59.5% of the team’s pass attempts, so clearly they have no issues spreading the ball around. Look for Henry to be an even bigger part of the passing scheme in 2022.
Henry’s 2022 Opportunity & Range of Outcomes
At most sportsbooks, Henry is currently the favorite to be the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year. The top end of his range is RB1, but based on last season’s numbers, even if he misses half of the season due to injury, he could still end up as a top-10 running back. There is no reason Henry can’t get back to his spot in the top three overall players, where he ended in 2020 and 2019. His average yards per carry in the last three years were 20.2, 23.6, and 27.4, and the Titans have no reason to run him fewer times per game based on his numbers. Henry seems to get stronger the longer the game progresses. This chart shows that his highest yards per attempt do not come from the first 30 rush attempts of each game, but the ones after that number…
Conclusion and CTA: Ranks and Projections
The most common take on Henry this season will be expected a drop in his performance, which is not a hot take at all. It makes sense to predict that someone who is coming off a foot injury after being so strong for three years might see a dip in production, but with a player like Henry, wait to play the drop until it happens. The hope is that fantasy leagues are soft and put too much emphasis on Henry’s foot injury from last season. Henry’s current Underdog ADP is 7.7, and the expert consensus rank in Stokastic’s Best Ball kit is 4.3.
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