After a week off, the UFC is heading to Paris, France live from the Accor Arena for UFC Fight Night Pairs. The headlining main event will be a battle of heavyweights Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa in what should be an all-out war. Below are some MMA DFS picks and analyses with the help of Stokastic’s UFC expert projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC Pairs and find some of the best UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa MMA DFS Picks
Top-End Pick: Benoit Saint Denis | DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel: $21
Saint-Denis was originally scheduled to fight Christos Giagos, but he had to pull out after mangling his finger. That gives Gabriel Miranda an opportunity to make his UFC debut.
This will be a matchup of submission specialists.
Saint-Denis proved his toughness in his debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, going the full 15 minutes, although the fight should have been stopped in Round 2 due to the beating Saint-Denis had taken.
I expect Saint-Denis’ power, pressure, patience and smothering top game will be too much for Miranda to endure in his debut. Stokastic UFC DFS projections give Saint-Denis 73% win odds with a 49% chance for a knockout. The Top Fighters Tool is also high on him, giving him a 41.9% chance of being in the top six on this card.
Top-End Pick: Abus Magomedov | DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel: $20
Magomedov has been out of action for quite some time. He fought in 2019, submitting Slavis Simeunovic and defeated Cezary Kesik via technical submission in 2020. While Magomedov’s nearly two-year layoff is cause for concern, his edge in strength, power, striking and dominant ground game should prevail in his UFC debut.
On the feet, he is extremely powerful, as shown with his impressive 13 knockouts. He has 72% win odds and a 46% chance for a knockout in the UFC DFS projections, while the Top Fighters Tool gives him a 39.2% chance of being in the top six on this card.
Mid-Priced Pick: William Gomis | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $18
Gomis is set to make his UFC debut on his home soil.
He is currently riding an eight-fight winning streak, with six of his wins coming via finish. Gomis prefers to strike, however, he will use his wrestling whenever needed and he does have one win via submission in his career. He will have the support of his hometown behind him, which should prove to be a factor in Gomis’ performance in his debut.
I expect Gomis’ power, pressure and striking could lead to another finish on his home soil. Gomis has a 36.9% chance of being in the top six on this card, while Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections give him 67% win odds with a 41% chance for a knockout.
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Value Pick: John Makdessi | DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel: $12
Makdessi has one of the best striking defenses in the UFC at 69% and is landing 5.59 significant strikes per minute. He fought under XMMA, Ringside MMA and Canadian Fighting Championship before joining the UFC in 2010.
In the last five years, he has only lost one fight, however, he has only fought once per year. Makdessi is a seasoned kickboxer, with solid striking, power and finishing ability. He has nine wins via knockout and nine wins via decision. He has 31% win odds according to our MMA DFS projection.
There is some risk rostering Makdessi in your MMA DFS lineups, but a first-round knockout could payoff nicely. With Makdessi coming in at 14% ownership, rostering comes leverage as well.
Value Pick: Tai Tuivasa | DraftKings: $6,700 , FanDuel: $12
Tuivasa will be facing a huge challenge in this heavyweight matchup with Ciryl Gane. Gane has a solid game plan, using heavy leg kicks, jabs, snap kicks and pressure to wear out his opponent, in hopes of frustrating them into making mistakes.
That said, Tuivasa’s aggressiveness, combinations, and pure power could easily catch Gane’s chin and put his lights out. He is currently riding a five-fight winning streak, all coming via knockout, with the most recent being a second-round knockout over Derrick Lewis.
There is a ton of risk rostering Tuivasa in your MMA DFS lineups, however, if he finds the chin of Gane early, he would pay off his $6,700 price tag nicely. Stokastic’s UFC expert projections give him 16% win odds.
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