With the NFL shifting to a more pass-heavy approach in the last decade, fantasy football has also adapted. More teams continue to implement three-receiver sets as their base formation. With this adaptation, more wide receivers have grown flex viable. However, this change has also flattened wide receiver scoring to a degree. While more receivers put up productive seasons, fewer receivers tally elite WR1 seasons of the past. Despite being a deeper position overall, the elite assets are more scarce than ever. When is the right time to start taking the elite, No. 1 wide receivers in any fantasy football draft? That’s the question I’ll be answering, with giving you the best guide and 2021 fantasy football draft strategy when it comes to pass catchers this season for your Yahoo, CBS and ESPN leagues.
2021 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Wide Receiver
Draft Stefon Diggs or Treek Hill First?
For example, the period between 2017 and 2020 had an average of 18.25 receivers hit 1,000 yards receiving. Meanwhile, 2014 to 2016 had an average of 22 receivers hit that same mark. While it may not look like much, it pushes the true alpha receivers that much further above the rest. Ahead of 2021, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill stand out as the two receivers deserving specific attention at the back half of the first round. Diggs led the NFL in every major receiving category, while Hill averaged 11.2 targets per game over his last 10 games.
Behind this tandem, most receivers come with questions. Davante Adams could play without Aaron Rodgers. AJ Brown recently saw Julio Jones introduced into an already run-first offense. Deandre Hopkins faces target competition from Christian Kirk, AJ Green and Rondale Moore. With elevated scarcity at wide receiver, grabbing a top-two receiver creates a competitive advantage at the position.
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After this group, receivers 3 through about 25 offer marginal differences in projection. With far fewer elite running backs, forgoing an early receiver for an elite running back offers a strong blend of security and upside. With two or three running backs secured in the early rounds, circling back to the receiver position in the mid-rounds makes sense.
In this mid-round range, targeting receivers on elite or emerging offenses offers the most upside. Last year, for example, Diggs came off the board at WR21, just ahead of DJ Chark Jr. While Buffalo added explosive weapons to Josh Allen, Jacksonville trotted out Gardner Minshew II, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton. At the end of the year, Diggs recorded more than double Chark’s yardage. This year receivers from the Rams and Bengals can be acquired at a similar cost with proven or emerging offensive environments.
Check out Awesemo Fantasy Football expert Dave Loughran’s Sleeper Wide Receivers, and who you should be drafting in your Yahoo, ESPN & CBS leagues.
Late-Round Options
After hitting receivers multiple times in the mid-rounds, rosters ideally hold five to six receivers when entering the double-digit rounds. From here, additional receivers should feature a blend of safety and upside. Last year, breakout receivers like Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Robby Anderson could be drafted at WR39 or later. Every year a number of these studs will emerge. Generally, they play on unsettled teams with solid offensive environments.
At the same time, mid- or late-round receivers can offer a lower bust rate than players at other positions. For that reason, drafting one or two receivers in the safer mold can help offset pressure during bye weeks. Last year, players like Tyler Boyd and Jarvis Landry averaged 12.8 and 12.5 points per game as the WR34 and WR35 in drafts.
While the individual player selections will depend on the particular league, this strategy guide should give a strong blueprint for upcoming drafts. For the wide receiver position specifically, targeting mid-round receivers and late-round breakout candidates on elite offenses provides the best chance for winning seasonal leagues.
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