Hello, UFC fans. This weekend, we have a 15-card in Abu Dhabi, including a main event between Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $500,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks analysis.
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Champion Picks
Khamzat Chimaev | Multiplier 1.50
Chimaev is a strong play in the champion spot due to his takedown and knockdown upside. He also has a highly probable chance at a first-round finish, which is 110 fantasy points. In this fight, I expect Chimaev to land several takedowns and control this fight on the mat. When picking the champion spot, your looking for a fighter with takedown, knockdown and first-round finish ability. Chimaev has all three, which makes him a strong play in GPPs and a lock in cash. Awesemo’s DFS fighter projections have Chimaev projected as the top fighter on the slate in the champion spot.
Darren Till | Multiplier 2.05
This play is based on Till’s power and one-shot knockout punch. Whittaker has taken a lot of damage in his last three fights, which gives us uncertainty regarding how well his chin will hold up. So, if Till can land his power shots early and often, then he could rack up points with knockdowns and a possible first-round or late second-round finish. Till happens to be Awesemo’s fourth-highest project fighter in the champion spot with 55% win odds.
Tom Aspinall | Multiplier 1.80
Aspinall is a power striker with speed and one-shot knockout punch. That could be big upside in the champion spot due to his first-round finishing ability. Collier has not fought in three years, which makes it hard to trust him in this fight. I expect him to have some cage rust, and his durability is in question. In this fight, Aspinall should be able to keep this fight standing and put Collier away. Aspinall is Awesemo’s third-highest projected fighter on the slate in the champion spot with a 50% chance for a knockout.
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Super Flex Picks
Nathaniel Wood | Multiplier 1.10
Wood is a solid prospect and I think he will be the better fighter. He is a strong grappler, and I expect him to take this fight to the mat and keep the presser on Castaneda. Wood has eight knockouts and six submissions on his record. Wood is the second-highest projected fighter on the slate according to the Awesemo’s DFS fighter projections.
Jai Herbert | Multiplier 1.45
Herbert is making his UFC debut. Trinaldo will be a tough test and should have the better wrestling. He is a solid striker and should throw more volume than Trinaldo. This is a risky play, but it could pay off due to low ownership, and he is a solid underdog pick with upside. Awesemo’s fighter projections give Herbert a 44% win odds.
