NBA DFS Picks: Value, Stud & Fade for 9/9

NBA playoff action is underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for the Wednesday, Sept. 9 slate.

NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for Sept. 9

Value Pick: Norman Powell

DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $4,300, Yahoo $12

Serge Ibaka is the only notable player on the injury report for today’s games. Dealing with a sprained ankle, he was seen wearing a walking boot yesterday and said he was uncertain of his status heading into Game 6. This is a bit ominous since players typically say they are at least hopeful they can play. For this reason, I am considering Ibaka a bit more likely to sit than suit up. Even if he’s active, I doubt he will be close to 100%.

If Ibaka is out, I expect the masses to gravitate towards Marc Gasol. It makes sense, and per dollar, I am sure he will rate out well as a play for me. With that said, I have massive concerns about Gasol, and I will proceed with caution when setting my exposure percentage to him. He’s looked washed for most of the postseason, especially from a fantasy standpoint. Gasol is yet to score more than 23 DraftKings points in a playoff game. If he struggles, I expect Toronto to play more small ball and give Powell extended run. With Ibaka getting injured last game, Powell ended up playing 32 minutes and scored 16 points.

Stud Pick: Pascal Siakam

DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $8,000, Yahoo $31

Siakam’s price is a bit down due to his poor recent play. I can’t blame the pricing algorithms. As great as Siakam played in the regular season, he seems off in the playoffs. Nick Nurse said as much in a postgame interview on Monday. He talked about Siakam playing out of rhythm, but the good news is that Siakam’s playing time isn’t going anywhere. Despite his recent play, Siakam is one of the best players on this team, and they need him to play well to get past the Celtics.

Not only is Siakam guaranteed to play big minutes, since the Raptors are facing elimination, he could play close to the entire game. I don’t put much stock into Game 5 since it was a blowout. In Game 4 with Toronto trailing 2-1 in the series, Siakam played 46 minutes and took 23 shots. If he can put together a game with some efficiency, his upside is massive.

Fade Pick: Michael Porter Jr.

DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $5,400, Yahoo $21

Porter finally put together a big playoff game on Monday, and this could make people gravitate towards him. There is always some upside in Porter. The problem I have with him is that he isn’t getting enough minutes to consistently produce in the playoffs. His lack of ability on defense often causes Mike Malone to go away from him in close playoff games. This is especially true since the Nuggets got back Gary Harris. In the last four games, Porter is averaging under 20 minutes per night. This is why it’s hard for me to expect him to replicate his 40 DraftKings performance from Game 3. Porter only played 23 minutes and crushed during his limited run. Against tough defenders like Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, it’s tough for me to think he will do something like that again.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.