Monday celebrates a new work week with a 10-game featured slate locking at 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Framber Valdez, Merrill Kelly and more.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $10,700 | Yahoo $50
Tonight DFS darling and extreme ground ball pitcher LHP Framber Valdez will be taking the mound against the visiting Chicago Cubs. The southpaw has a preposterous negative-2.6-degree launch angle over the last season and change, resulting in an other-worldly 66.1% ground ball rate across 1,133 batters during this span. Valdez has also seen improvement in his strikeout rate to nearly 25.1%, and he is economical with his pitches, working deep into games. In his last 39 appearances, he has 33 quality starts — which, of course, also earns bonus points on FanDuel.
This iteration of the Cubs does have some pop, but they also come with an above-average strikeout rate. Additionally, this is not a particularly discerning group at the plate, and since the start of last year, today’s projected lineup has a paltry 6.5% walk rate against lefties. Advantage Valdez.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Merrill Kelly at Oakland Athletics — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $41
The baseball journey of RHP Merrill Kelly is an epic saga that is worth revisiting a couple times each season. The 34-year-old was drafted out of high school and then again twice while in college, with Tampa Bay selecting his services in the eighth round of the 2010 MLB Draft. Kelly started out in Single-A that season, and over the next five years, he hit his ceiling with the Durham Bulls in Triple-A. The Rays released him, and he spent the next four seasons in the KBO, pitching for the SK Wyverns, when he finally drew some interest from the Arizona Diamondbacks. He made his debut with them as a 30-year-old rookie.
Since that time, Kelly has been a solid — though not spectacular — contributor who gets just enough ground balls and strikeouts while limiting power to keep his team in the mix for a victory whenever he is on the mound. The current collection of Oakland batsmen has bottom-five marks in most standard and advanced categories over the last two seasons when facing right-handed pitching. Kelly is not cheap, but he is not going to break the bank either and looks like a decent SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo, and he could be pressed into the SP1 slot to accommodate Coors Field stacks.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Charlie Morton at Texas Rangers — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,800 | Yahoo $40
The two previously listed pitchers also check the box for the evening and late slates, so today’s article format is taking a little different look. RHP Charlie Morton is taking on the scorching Texas Rangers, who have won seven of their last nine games, plating seven or more runs in four of them.
Morton is a long-time veteran and knows what he is doing on the mound, as he has been a starting pitcher since his debut all the way back in 2008. Throughout the years, he has pitched for five different organizations, played in both leagues and had seasons with and without the designated hitter. Through it all, the elder statesman has a 4.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 1,837.2 innings.
If anyone can hold the Rangers at bay for a game, it is Morton due to his ability to coax ground balls and mediocre contact while also adding in a few strikeouts. His main weakness is left-handed power, but aside from Nate Lowe and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim, that is something that Texas does not bring to the table — well, at least until Corey Seager (hamstring) returns.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
It sounds like tonight will be somewhat of a bullpen game, or reliever RHP Jimmy Cordero may serve as an opener for RHP Jhony Brito. Regardless, the usual suspects are in play tonight for Toronto. Looking at the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, the Blue Jays are well behind the teams in Coors Field, Arizona in a great road matchup and Atlanta taking on rookie LHP Cody Bradford in his MLB debut.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, of course, are stellar options, regardless of who is on the mound. George Springer is finally healthy, and he is a strong leadoff bat, and Dalton Varsho is a nice addition as the cleanup hitter, though he has lost his catcher eligibility on both DraftKings and Yahoo. Brandon Belt ($2,200) and Kevin Kiermaier ($2,700) are amazing discounts on DraftKings and can facilitate a pair of top pitching options, along with a Coors Field stack.
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Evening Slate Target: Houston Astros vs. RHP Jameson Taillon — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
It feels like RHP Jameson Taillon is still a prospect, but that is just time playing tricks on us, as he made his debut with Pittsburgh all the way back in 2016 and has 148 starts under his belt in The Show. The 31-year-old is deserving of being in a starting rotation, but we can also pick on him with any top-10 offense. Taillon mostly limits walks, and he has just enough strikeouts to pitch the occasional gem. However, he does allow above-average power, and while he has been unlucky this season, as evidenced by his 6.41 ERA and 3.85 FIP, 3.76 xFIP and 3.85 xERA, we should not let that dissuade us from loading up on the Astros as an alternative to the Coors Field Extravaganza.
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are the trio to target this evening, with struggling Jose Abreu still worthy of an honorable mention. Keep tabs on who slots in as the leadoff hitter, as Jeremy Pena sometimes drops down the order when a righty is on the mound. Chas McCormick is finally healthy once again, but he could be eased back into things. If his name is on the lineup card, he is a solid punt on DraftKings ($3,700) tonight.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks at RHP Drew Rucinski — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
There is a good chance that right about now RHP Drew Rucinski is wishing he were back in the KBO. The baseball nomad showed enough that the Athletics were willing to take a chance on his 34-year-old arm being able to absorb some innings, but after three starts, each worse than the preceding effort, his days in The Show could be coming to a close.
Across 14.1 innings against the Yankees, Mariners and Reds, Rucinski has been saddled with an 8.16 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. Though he has allowed “only” three home runs, he also has four unearned runs that would otherwise bloat his ERA into double digits.
The Diamondbacks set up well against right-handed pitching, and Josh Rojas, Pavin Smith and switch-hitter Ketel Marte are all excellent options swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Christian Walker mashes same-handed hurlers, so he should have no trouble getting a pitch he likes from Rucinski tonight.
Youngster Corbin Carroll has a nice speed/power profile, and he is a strong DFS play while also being an interesting option in the home run market, with his early line of +630 to take one out of the park.
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Final Thoughts for Monday, May 15 | MLB DFS Picks
Outside of some late-inning showers around Denver, today looks to be free of any pesky precipitation.
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