Sunday gets the featured-slate action started at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Dylan Cease and the Chicago Cubs offense.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease at Detroit Tigers — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $39
The salary is just too good to overlook RHP Dylan Cease on DraftKings and Yahoo today. Even with his mediocre May — with 28.1 innings across five starts turning into a 5.08 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and just 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings — this afternoon Cease has a get-right spot against the lowly Detroit Tigers.
Though the Detroit offense has been improving this season, with an 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, that is still a bottom-5 figure. If we extend the range to encompass last season, it drops to an 81 wRC+, which is the worst in baseball during this timeframe. During this longer span, the Tigers have a .121 ISO, which is the second lowest in the league, while their 24.5% strikeout rate is the third highest.
Cease has seen about a 1 mph drop across the board for his fastball, slider and curve, compared to last year — otherwise his pitch-mix remains stable. Clearly the 2022 campaign was his career highwater mark, but do not let the regression this season keep you away from him in this matchup. In each of his last three outings, one against Houston and a home and away set against Cleveland, the 27-year-old erstwhile ace has produced quality starts. That is on the table today and keeps him in play on FanDuel as well, with the blue site awarding bonus points for that milestone.
RHPs Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish are squaring off this afternoon, and they represent intriguing tournament targets, albeit for a pretty penny against equally daunting offenses.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: LHP Drew Smyly vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $44
Yesterday the recommendation was to target the Cincinnati offense against RHP Jameson Taillon, which paid dividends, as the Reds chased him in the fifth inning after he allowed four runs. They tacked on another four against the bullpen, and with two home runs going to Jonathan India and each of the doubles being recorded by core-stack options Tyler Stephenson and T.J. Friedl, it was a productive day.
Sunday the script is flipping, and the target is now LHP Drew Smyly against the Cincy bats. This season, the soon-to-be 34-year-old veteran has gone away from his cutter that he used nearly 20% of the time last season and moved half of those offerings over to his curveball. Smyly has always been good at limiting hard contact, and though he is more of a fly ball pitcher, he gets enough warning-track outs to survive most of the time. Today the breeze is blowing in from right-center field in the 7 to 10 mph range, which is a slight tick in his favor.
There a not a ton of strikeouts in the projected Cincinnati lineup, but there is far from an abundance of power. If Smyly can work his way through the top of the order in India, Stephenson, Spencer Steer and Matt McLain, he should be able to flirt with a quality start and a chance for the win, with the Cubs currently listed as -160 favorites.
Alternative options include LHP MacKenzie Gore in Kansas City, RHP Jose Berrios against his former team in Minnesota and ground ball specialist RHP Alex Cobb in Milwaukee. This trio can also be considered as SPs or tournament options on the featured slate.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Cristian Javier at Oakland Athletics — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $56
While RHP Cristian Javier missed a chance at the Oakland offense in the last series between these teams, he is the standout pitching play on the late slate on Sunday. Though the Athletics’ .140 ISO against right-handed hurlers is slightly below average this season, they rank second to last with an 84 wRC+ and 25.9% strikeout rate.
Javier was stellar last year, mostly working in the rotation and garnering 25 starts in his 30 appearances. Over the last two campaigns combined, the 26-year-old has 207.1 innings, a 2.69 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 3.28 FIP and a stellar 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. There is some pop in the bats of Ryan Noda, Brent Rooker, Seth Brown and Shea Langeliers, but this quartet offers up strikeout rates of 26% or higher against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus. Enjoy!
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP Cody Bradford — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
RHP Dane Dunning was placed on the paternity list, so this afternoon, rookie LHP Cody Bradford will be making his second start in The Show. This season, in his first working at the Triple-A level, Bradford is leading or near the top of most pitching categories in the Pacific Coast League. He spent two seasons as a starter for Baylor University before being shut down in his third year due to thoracic outlet syndrome. He was still selected in the sixth round of the 2019 MLB Draft but did not get to see any action in 2020, with the pandemic curtailing the MiLB season. Though Bradford is far from a prospect of note, he should be able to carve out a role as a fifth starter while proudly wearing the “crafty lefty” moniker.
In his debut, Bradford was rocked for six runs across five innings, striking out three and ceding a pair of round-trippers. While that looks like an awful outing, it was also against a loaded Atlanta offense that is set up to smack left-handed pitchers. This is still a “prove it” spot for the 25-year-old, who is likely to be sent back down to Round Rock for more experience after this start.
The Orioles have a solid collection of young hitters, and when they are firing on all cylinders, they can post crooked numbers with ease. Look to the righties first, with Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and switch-hitting Anthony Santander being the trio to target. Jorge Mateo is always fun with his proclivity for stealing bases and some pop in his bat. He and Ryan McKenna are a discounted duo who can provide differentiation at the bottom of the order. On a fun note, McKenna was brought in to pitch for the third time in his career, mopping things up in a 12-2 loss on Friday. If you have not yet seen the highlights, do yourself a favor with a quick Twitter search.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Chicago Cubs vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
In his rookie season last year, RHP Graham Ashcraft showed some glimpses of upside, but it was clear he still needed to “learn how to pitch” and receive help from a veteran catcher to get the correct pitch mix in play. Through six starts this season, it looked like the 25-year-old had broken through, with 36 innings, a 2.00 ERA, just 10 extra-base hits and only one longball. The 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings seemed destined to improve, and even with regression beyond his 3.56 FIP, it looked like Ashcraft could be used by DFS gamers in positive matchups.
The proverbial fit hit the shan in his last four appearances. Yes, one game was in Coors Field and one was against the Cardinals, but dang — 17.1 innings with a 12.98 ERA, 6.46 FIP and seven or more earned runs in three of those outings have everyone second guessing things. It looks like Ashcraft is going to be someone DFS gamers pick on with above-average offenses, particularly those that have batters swinging the stick from the right side of the plate who have above-average pop against same-handed hurlers. In his 376 matchups against fellow righties, Ashcraft has allowed a .380 wOBA, .196 ISO and a paltry 14.1% strikeout rate.
Veteran Dansby Swanson (.160 ISO), cleanup hitter Seiya Suzuki and hot-hitting Christopher Morel are the trio to target for the afternoon action, and they also are a fine secondary stack on the featured slate. Switch-hitter Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner can be worked in for those looking to create a full stack of Cubbies.
Late Slate Target: Houston Astros at RHP Luis Medina — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
In three of his four starts in The Show, RHP Luis Medina has allowed a pair of longballs along with multiple walks. While he had plenty of strikeouts across the lower levels of the minors, his only action above Double-A ball was this year, with 13.1 innings in Triple-A and 22.1 frames with the big club. Most projection systems are not kind to the 24-year-old, and they range from 4.78 to 5.14 strikeouts per nine innings. Medina would be a multi-inning reliever on most other teams, but for pitching-starved Oakland, he will get a chance to stay in the rotation for his on-the-job training.
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve, of course, are the core four to target. It would not be a surprise to see one of the veterans get a day of rest today, but that just means a promotion for a discounted reserve bat. Jose Pena and Chas McCormick would be the most likely to get a boost in the batting order, or outfielder Jake Meyers could get a spot start at a near-minimum salary on DraftKings ($2,600) and FanDuel ($2,700). Finally, there is veteran Jose Abreu, who is still searching for his first home run of the season after hitting a career-low 15 in 601 at-bats last year as he wrapped up his time in the South Side of Chicago as a member of the White Sox.
Final Thoughts for Sunday, May 28 | MLB DFS Picks
Sunday of the three-day holiday weekend should have no precipitation issues and pleasant weather at most outdoor venues.
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