Sunday brings a fun-filled MLB slate, with the action getting underway at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Andrew Heaney, the Texas Rangers offense and more.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $11,200 | Yahoo $5
This recommendation is less about picking on the Oakland offense and more about LHP Framber Valdez being one of the best fantasy pitchers in the league. There is no salary discount, though that should not be a surprise considering Valdez has a 65.7% ground ball rate and a negative-2.3-degree launch angle against his last 1,154 batters faced. On Monday he had his “worst” outing of the year, and while he still lost value from a DFS salary perspective, he salvaged the outing with eight strikeouts. That appearance was only the fourth time he has ceded more than three earned runs over his last 40 starts, and there are many pitchers who would be thrilled for a bad start to last four innings with four earned runs while still racking up eight punchouts.
Over the last season and change, the projected A’s lineup has been average against southpaws, with a 101 wRC+, but they are a bottom-5 team from a power perspective. Anything less than a quality start from Valdez this afternoon should be considered a significant disappointment.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Heaney vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $40
When healthy, LHP Andrew Heaney is an excellent pitcher. Unfortunately, a myriad of injuries have limited the 31-year-old to just 145 appearances, despite breaking into the show all the way back in 2014. Walks are still a concern, and Heaney has issued multiple free passes in all but one start this season. However, the strikeout upside is unmistakable, with a career average of 9.7 per nine innings and a whopping 16 in his last two starts.
The projected Colorado lineup has 26.1% strikeout rate over the last two-plus seasons against southpaws. Heaney does allow home runs as a fly ball pitcher, though this iteration of the Rockies has a .114 ISO when facing lefties, even including their Coors Field results.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Jesus Luzardo at San Francisco Giants — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $40
Clearly RHP Shohei Ohtani is the best pitching option on the late slate, while RHP Michael Wacha slots in nicely as the SP2. Though in tournaments, we should absolutely consider LHP Jesus Luzardo, who has quietly become a frontline starting pitcher.
Over the last two seasons, he has had made 27 starts while posting a 3.26 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 3.33 FIP and an impressive 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Only five times has he allowed more than three runs in these outings, and most impressively, in those appearances he allowed five runs once and four runs the other four times.
San Francisco will be rolling out as many right-handed bats as possible for the platoon advantage. However, do not let that dissuade you from looking towards Luzardo, as he can more than hold his own with a 27.6% strikeout rate in his last 503 opposite-handed matchups.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Washington Nationals vs. LHP Joey Wentz — 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
There is bad, there is awful, and then there is LHP Joey Wentz, who has been overmatched in nearly every start this season. The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is recognizing this spot as well and has identified the Nationals as one of the best value options on the board.
Wentz was a prospect of note, with Atlanta making him a first-round selection out of high school in the 2016 MLB Draft. Tommy John surgery and the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season hampered his development, and he did not reach Triple-A until last year. Across seven starts in The Show, Wentz was serviceable. However, that now feels like it was a lifetime ago and not a mere nine months ago.
Joey Meneses is back from paternity leave (Baby Narrative!!!) and still maintaining decent production, despite not making it to the big leagues until his age-30 season last year. Lane Thomas and Stone Garrett have shown extra-base-hit upside, and they can be had for a song. Veteran Jeimer Candelario should be in the heart of the order, and the veteran of eight MLB campaigns can still turn mistakes into screaming line drives to the gaps.
The salary savings presented by Washington opens up a whole world of possibilities on this slate while also providing differentiation. There is no need to go for a full stack, but selecting duos and trios who are adjacent in the lineup as a secondary stack with synergy is a savvy strategy.
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Midafternoon Slate Target: Texas Rangers vs. RHP Connor Seabold — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
In his last three appearances, RHP Connor Seabold has almost as many walks as strikeouts (6 vs. 7), while also allowing a trio of round-trippers. Now that Corey Seager has recovered from his hamstring issue, the Texas lineup is terrifying with him in the two-hole and switch-hitter Robbie Grossman dropping to the bottom third of the lineup, where he is above average instead of overmatched.
Sebold has power issues, with a .250 ISO and a .422 wOBA allowed to the last 229 hitters he has faced. Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim offer seemingly limitless stacking constructs, which will allow the savvy gamer to differentiate from the rest of the Rangers backers.
Late Slate Target: San Diego Padres vs. RHP Corey Kluber — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
This has been a rough season for 37-year-old RHP Corey Kluber, who has allowed a home run in every start and 11 in his 39.1 innings this season. The name recognition is still strong among casual gamers, but it has been five years since Kluber’s last All-Star Game appearance. Yes, from 2014 through 2018 he was one of the best pitchers in the game, winning a pair of Cy Young Awards and finishing third on two other occasions in that five-season span. That was then, this is now, and it is time to load up on San Diego bats.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto are the pair to build around for DFS and in the home run market. Matt Carpenter is likely to see his name on the lineup card this afternoon with a righty on the mound, and he is a strong discount dandy across the DFS sites and an intriguing home run option at +400 to +440 on several sportsbooks. While he is the same age as Kluber, he is still a solid situational option and a luxury as a DH or pinch hitter. This season he has 10 extra-base hits in 87 at bats, including a trio of longballs.
Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts and Rougned Odor profile well against Kluber, and they should help carry the offense while Manny Machado is on the injured list.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, May 21 | MLB DFS Picks
The weather looks good as the weekend winds down and there are no precipitation trouble spots.
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