UFC Fight Night Las Vegas DFS Picks and Value Plays: Mackenzie Dern-Angela Hill

UFC Fight Night: Las Vegas main event is Mackenzie DernAngela Hill, but plenty of other fights look good for MMA DFS across the card. The co-main event is Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez, and the rest of the card has some good spots as well. Let’s break down the top UFC Fight Night Las Vegas DFS picks, with the help of Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections.

UFC Fight Night Las Vegas DFS Picks

Salaries come from DraftKings.

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Gilbert Urbina ($7,800)

Gilbert Urbina takes on Orion Cosce as a +100 underdog on the prelims after nearly two years away from the sport. Urbina lost to Bryan Battle via submission on the Ultimate Fighter in his most recent appearance. On the other side, Cosce is 2-1 in the UFC with his most recent fight ending in a decision win over Blood Diamond last July. While this fight is parked midway through the prelims, don’t fret. This has the markings of an all-action fight.

Looking first at the Stokastic projections, this fight projects for the second-highest pace on the entire card. Urbina is a pressure fighter, who lands 6.21 significant strikes per minute and 4.14 takedowns per bout. He possesses a well-rounded skillset and looks comfortable wherever this fight may go. His opponent Cosce will also look to push a pace. Cosce averages 2.30 takedowns per bout himself and will aggressively wrestle. Defense remains a major question mark on both sides. Both fighters have a negative striking differential and Urbina has 0% takedown defense. However, this has more to do with a lack of UFC experience than poor technique. Overall, money continues to come in on Urbina throughout the week, making him one of the top underdogs to target in a fight that should be all-action from the start.

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Anthony Hernandez ($9,400)

The fight with the highest projected pace on the entire card, Anthony Hernandez faces Edmen Shahbazyan as a -210 favorite in the co-main event. Hernandez finds himself on a three-fight winning streak after last losing to Kevin Holland in May 2020. His opponent Shahbazyan found the winning column with a knockout over Dalcha Lungiambula in December after dropping three straight against the some of the division’s toughest opponents. With the public likely to look at Dern in the main event or Natalia Silva as a -900 favorite, Hernandez could fly under the radar.

In addition to the potential leverage, Hernandez has a strong grappling advantage over Shahbazyan. Hernandez averages 2.31 takedowns per bout with Shahbazyan only defending takedowns at a 65% clip. Shahbazyan was taken down seven times in his last three losses, which could be a major factor here. Shahbazyan has also struggled with his cardio, which could be exacerbated if Hernandez can land his takedowns early. The underdog still holds knockout power, and this fight is +150 to reach a decision. While Hernandez stands out among the expensive fighters on the card, Shahbazyan can still be mixed in as a potential underdog in this uptempo fight. Overall, Hernandez comes in with a 42.8% chance of earning a finish.

Emily Ducote ($7,600)

Another potential value fighter to target here, Emily Ducote faces Loopy Godinez as a +130 underdog. Ducote lost her most recent bout against Angela Hill in December in a lopsided decision. Godinez also lost to Hill in her second-most recent fight. However, she earned a victory over Cynthia Calvillo on April 8th via split decision in a fight where she was out-struck.

In this bout, both fighters project to bring an above average pace. Ducote should have a striking advantage landing 6.23 significant strikes per minute. Godinez holds the edge in grappling, averaging 3.82 takedowns per bout. However, Ducote possesses strong wrestling defense and defends takedowns at 100% to this point. In her UFC debut, Ducote stuffed all eight takedown attempts from Jessica Penne on her way to a unanimous decision victory. As long as she can take the same approach here, Ducote should out-strike Godinez and take a decision victory.

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Matt Gajewski
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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