NBA Player Props: Delon Wright Continues as Over Machine (March 12)

In today’s NBA Bet Pro article, we will be sharing the top NBA player props for Sunday, March 12, on DraftKings. According to NBA Bet Pro, today’s slate is about as bare as it gets, with only two props earning EVs higher than 6% and just one pushing over 20% for sEV. Long term, today is not a huge bankroll-boosting kind of day. As such, today we’ll stick to just the two props with the highest EVs of the NBA slate, both coming from the Washington Wizards.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 12

2. Bradley Beal Over 0.5 Blocks (+160)

This expected win rate is well below 50%, so this is one of the riskier props NBA Bet Pro has ever given a solid EV to. After all, Beal has only blocked 30 shots total this season, hitting the over on 0.5 in 21 of 45 games. That said, three of those 30 blocks have come in three games against the 76ers, whom the Wizards play tonight, and Beal is 2-for-3 on this over against Philadelphia this season. He has also blocked at least one shot in three straight games and in four of his last five.

Now, since his season average is 0.7, one could argue he is due for some regression — and that is part of the reason the expected win rate on the over is just 41%. But in this spot and with great odds at +160, Beal’s over on 0.5 blocks is a solid long-term value and is the No. 2 NBA player prop of the Sunday slate.

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1. Delon Wright Over 1.5 Steals (-104)

Beal’s teammate gets the No. 1 slot, and by a wide margin. No bet today touches Wright’s over on 1.5 steals, as this is the only one with a +EV in the double digits and an sEV over 20%, let alone over 1%. That means it is the only NBA player prop today worthy of a decent bankroll investment.

Wright’s steals line has been plus money much of the season, so at least DraftKings has caught on to Wright’s value as a pickpocket. He is averaging 2.2 steals per game (which would lead the league if he had the minutes to qualify), and even though he only has played 38 games, Wright is 14th in the NBA in total steals. He has recorded multiple steals in 26 of those 38 games (68.4%), so truth be told, this line should be 2.5. That is exactly what NBA Bet Pro is projecting Wright to get, giving this over a win expectancy of 58%. On a light day, this is the lock of all locks.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.