PGA DFS Fades & Pivots RBC Heritage: Cameron Young 1st Win?

The PGA moves down to the coast this week for a quick return to another classic event in the RBC Heritage. The April date always provides some cooler, off-the-sea conditions, which can see fog, rain and wind all play factors. Winning scores run the gamut on this shorter technical track. Last year Jordan Spieth won in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay, with both men getting into the clubhouse at 13 under par after 72 holes. Let’s take a look at the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for the 2023 RBC Heritage.

PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | RBC Heritage

Harbour Town is a short, Pete Dye-designed par 71 that measures around 7,099 yards and features small Bermuda greens. The greens are tough to hit — look for bad greens-in-regulation percentages this week — but quite flat in most spots and easy to putt on. Winners here often gain massive strokes on the greens, and Webb Simpson gained 6.6 strokes putting during his win in 2020. With several tight driving holes and doglegs, clubbing down off the tee is often necessary on several holes, making power off the tee somewhat irrelevant. It is a tricky course where great iron play, strong putting and experience on other claustrophobic Pete Dye venues tend to pay off.

The average three-putt percentage is often 10% to 20% lower than the tour average, but the average greens-in-regulation percentage is also 5% to 10% lower than average.
Average driving distance is one of the lowest on tour and often 10 to 15 yards lower than the tour average; two of the last four winners have lost strokes off the tee, and the driver is not a club players will use a ton this week.
Five of the last six winners have gained 3.5 strokes on approach (or more) for the week of their win; Stewart Cink gained 8.1 strokes on approach during his win in 2021.

Get one month of Stokastic+ Platinum FREE when you make your first deposit on PrizePicks

2023 RBC Heritage DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Xander Schauffele

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 17.1% | FanDuel: 18.1%

Schauffele had one of the least memorable top-10 finishes at Augusta in recent memory. He was never really in the tournament but did find some gumption on the weekend to at least hang around the bigger names. Schauffele may have a 10th and a 19th on the ledger for his last two starts, but he is not looking overly sharp like he was at the start of the season. He lost multiple strokes off the tee in both Florida starts and seems to be relying heavily on the putter right now.

Considering he is still projected for well over 15% ownership on DraftKings, he is certainly a fade candidate based on how technical a course Harbour Town is. Schauffele has also never had a ton of success on Pete Dye courses and comes into this week having played Harbour Town three times and never posting a result better than 32nd. With the team event (that he won before) on the ledger for next week, fading his higher PGA DFS ownership projections makes sense.

High-End Pivot: Cameron Young

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 13.8% | FanDuel: 20.1%

Cameron Young would not be the first name that comes to mind for tight, technical Pete Dye tracks, but he has handled shorter venues well in his short time on the PGA Tour. He recorded a 26th place at the American Express earlier this season and was also third at this tournament on his debut in 2022. Young is coming off a great Masters where he was hovering around the lead going into the third round and eventually finished seventh. With Paul Tesori on the bag (someone who knows his way around Harbour Town well), Young is in a good spot to chase his first win and looks strong in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections — he has a better win probability than Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im. With his ownership not likely to get too out of hand on DraftKings, he makes for a proper upper-tier pivot.

Latest PGA DFS Content

Mid-Range Fade: Matthew Fitzpatrick

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 19.5% | FanDuel: 11.7%

Fitzpatrick has been extremely up and down in 2023. He dealt with a neck injury early in the year but seemed to pop out of his funk with a 14th-place finish at Bay Hill. That proved to be fleeting, as he then missed two cuts in a row at the Valspar and PLAYERS. His 10th-place finish at The Masters needs to be taken in the context of the bigger picture, which is a player still struggling to find consistency. There is no doubt that a supreme putter and around-the-green specialist like Fitzpatrick can eventually figure out Harbour Town, but given his overall struggles this season, the near 20% ownership projection on DraftKings seems high. His price is not outlandish at all, but the talented field and some of the cheaper, lower-owned names in his range make Fitzpatrick a fade.

Mid-Range Pivot: Sahith Theegala

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 8.1% | FanDuel: 8.2%

Theegala has momentum after a Sunday 67 at Augusta vaulted him into the top 10. The result was huge for Theegala, who is now in the top 30 in the OWGR and now gets an automatic invite into next year’s Masters. He nearly won an event just down the road from Harbour Town at Sea Island in the fall, and there is some good symmetry between those two courses. Theegala has an excellent around-the-green game, has been very good on approaches of late and looks more than ready to break through. While he certainly has a little higher variance in his results than others in his range, his upside and lower PGA DFS ownership projections make him a good pivot option off the chalky European names in the low-$8,000 range on DraftKings.

Mid-Range Fade: Rickie Fowler

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 14.0% | FanDuel: 7.5%

Fowler is almost certain to be a popular pick this week given his name recognition and price on DraftKings, which is only $7,600. Fowler did not play last week (so there are also the rest angle people will be looking at), and he did finish 10th at the Valero, gaining over six strokes on approach. While there is little reason to think he cannot churn out a made cut this year, Harbor Town can be tricky, and Fowler is 0-for-3 in made cuts in three career starts here. Stokastic’s PGA DFS ownership projections have Fowler potentially pushing to be 15% owned or higher, so he looks more and more like a ripe game theory fade candidate in larger-field GPPs. There are simply other players in his range who will be far less owned that have strong PGA DFS projections as well.

Mid-Range Pivot: Wyndham Clark

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 5.0% | FanDuel: 6.6%

Like Fowler, Clark did not get to play last week. Despite not getting into the first major of the season, he has shown tremendous improvement in his game to the point where he ranks among the best iron players on the PGA this season. Clark has not shown a ton of upside on this venue, but he has made the cut at Harbour Town in each of his four career appearances. Despite the decent track history and top-10s in his last two PGA starts, Clark still is looking like he will likely be in the 5% to 7% ownership range (max) on DraftKings. With a strong projection and cheaper salary at $7,500, he will make for a great pivot.