The Seahawks return to action after their bye week at 5-0, in sole possession of first place in the NFC West, and the one seed in the NFC. The Cardinals would also be a playoff team if the season came to a conclusion today but will have their work cut out for them at home in week 7. Can Kyler Murray and company take down Seattle for the first time this season? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Daily Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Seahawks – Cardinals NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7
Seattle Seahawks (29.5) at Arizona Cardinals (27) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Seattle Passing Game
The Seahawks enter week 7 well-rested after their bye week and quite healthy on the offensive side of the ball. After a dramatic game-winning drive to close out their week 5 win, MVP frontrunner Russell Wilson returns to action after (technically) his worst game of 2020, where he threw for just 217 yards on 32 attempts but managed to rack up three passing touchdowns (including the game-winner in the final seconds) en route to his fourth top-10 fantasy scoring performance this season. Wilson and the Seahawks rank in the upper echelon of the league in nearly every important offensive aggressiveness metric. They’re No. 1 in true early down success rate and second in early-down air yards per second in neutral situations (air yards per play divided by seconds per play). Meanwhile, Wilson is eighth in deep attempts, sixth in air yards per attempt and fourth in air yards, while the Cardinals rank just 17th in PFF’s coverage grade and 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA. Needless to say, Wilson will take his shots, and in all likelihood he’ll have opportunities for big plays. His odds of being top five at his position this weekend are as high as anyone on this weekend’s slate.
Part of the reason Wilson’s passing floor, and the team’s shift towards aggressiveness in general this season, is because of the Seahawks’ inability to rely on their own defense to stop opposing passing attacks. It’s clear that the Seattle coaching staff, understanding that their secondary is likely to give up chunk plays and points, is choosing to preemptively unleash Wilson, and it’s working fantastically. This general makeup of the Seahawks in 2020 is the perfect weekly recipe for shootouts. Should that be the case here in week 7 (as the sky-high Vegas total suggests), the primary beneficiaries would be Wilson’s dynamic duo of receivers, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who could see increased opportunities beyond their 7.8 and 7.6 targets per game. Though Metcalf has the clear lead in the air yards department and ranks top five in the NFL in true weighted opportunity share, Lockett already has a game with 13 targets this season, and the pair is one of five receiver duos to command 50% of their team’s true weighted opportunity share. Both rank in the top 20 most advantageous matchups when faced against Arizona’s cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick and Byron Murphy. However, expect Patrick Peterson to spend plenty of time despite his lacking defensive grade from PFF this season, traveling from his typical left cornerback position to spend more time covering Seattle’s primary receiving weapons.
With so much of the opportunity funneled toward Seattle’s big two, every other piece in the Seattle receiving game should be considered a dart-throw play each week. Greg Olsen has managed to see a 12% target share and 10% of the air yards, but he has had virtually no production, scoring four fewer fantasy points than David Moore, who only has 14 targets all season. Both backup tight end Will Dissly and rookie receiver Freddie Swain, who play on 42% and 35% of snaps, respectively, should be on MME players’ radars this weekend. In a game environment where both squads could end up scoring five-plus touchdowns, it’s absolutely possible either will nab one or two of them.
Seattle Rushing Game
While starting running back Chris Carson’s usage has dwindled slightly since his late-game injury in Dallas in week 3 (Carson’s snap share dropped 66% snap share in weeks 2 and 3 to 56% in weeks 4 and 5), he remains the unquestioned starter and primary backfield option in all phases, especially while Carlos Hyde continues to nurse a shoulder injury that puts his availability for Sunday’s game in doubt. Carson’s eight carries in week 5 were mostly a product of game script, so it was especially encouraging to see him receive a season-high seven targets two weekends ago. With four games of at least 19 fantasy points and a score over 25, he’ll need multiple touchdowns to be a tournament winner. Still, Carson remains a fantastic, high-floor play with top-10 running back upside. He’s priced like it this week, however, as his salary makes him the 10th-highest-salary back on the slate.
Arizona Passing Game
There’s only been one quarterback who’s been top 12 at his position in all six of the season’s first weeks, and his name’s Kyler Murray. Murray threw a season-low 25 times in week 6 (the game against Dallas was out of hand quickly) and totaled just 188 yards passing, but he played mistake-free football and still managed 4.0 expected points added and had 57 yards and a score as a rusher. Despite the middling passing production in week 6, Murray has improved in his accuracy this season. He now ranks in the top 10 in true completion percentage and top five in red zone completion percentage. Murray still has trouble with his decision making from time to time, as he ranks 17th among quarterbacks in danger plays and interceptable passes, leading to him being 24th in adjusted yards per attempt, but these are areas where the second-year player can continue to improve. Against Seattle’s secondary, which has been by far the easiest secondary to pass against in the NFL, Murray should have every opportunity to put up points through the air.
The Cardinals offense will likely need plenty of points Sunday, going toe to toe with the potent Seattle passing attack, which will make DeAndre Hopkins one of the most popular players on the main slate. Week 6 was his second game as a Cardinal commanding over 35% of the team’s targets, up from 19% a week ago. With one of the highest floors of any receiver in the league, a game environment that points toward a shootout and playing against a defense that ranks 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers, Hopkins is uniquely positioned to smash this Sunday. Get him into your lineups where his (prohibitive) salary fits. Last week, Andy Isabella led the team in air yards for the first time the season but lost track of the ball in midair multiple times. Eventually Murray connected on a deep shot to Christian Kirk, who received two targets and scored times he touched the ball, totaling 86 yards receiving. No other receiving option is commanding even 10% of Arizona’s targets except for the timeless Larry Fitzgerald, who isn’t in play in DFS lineups (a touchdown is never out of the question) but continues to play on 80% of the Cardinals’ snaps. He’s 94th in fantasy points per game this season.
Arizona Rushing Game
Kenyan Drake saw nearly three times as many opportunities in week 6 as any other member of the Cardinals, an indicator that Arizona plans to lean on Drake heavily whenever they have the lead. But in week 7 against Seattle, that’s far from a given. Drake’s commanding of 22 opportunities to Chase Edmonds seven, along with his 69-yard touchdown scamper to seal the week 6 victory, should put to bed any ideas the Cardinals may have had about giving Edmonds more playing time in neutral situations. Even so, Drake is still drastically underperforming his expected elusiveness (based on the historical trendline for running back avoided tackles relative to total touches) and must continue to outplay the Arizona offensive line, which PlayerProfiler ranks as the worst team in the league in run blocking efficiency. Drake’s $4,800 salary on the main slate this weekend makes him an exciting high-floor, high-ceiling option at the position.
Prediction: Seahawks 33, Cardinals 24.
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