Green Bay Packers (26.25) at New Orleans Saints (23.75)
The Packers and Saints will meet in a neutral location this weekend (Jacksonville) due to ongoing effects from Hurricane Ida, resulting in a rare outdoor home game for the Saints, and with it, the possibility of Thunderstorms at some point in this matchup. Still the Vegas implied totals indicate that the offenses will be a step ahead of the defenses, despite New Orleans ranking top-five in success rate allowed, and Green Bay ranking in the top 10 against the pass. The Saints will trot-out new starter Jameis Winston, which should leave to a more aggressive (and likely more turnover-prone) version of the New Orleans offense, and any time a team is playing against Aaron Rodgers, they more be forced into a much more pass-happy game script than they expected coming in. Rodgers and Davante Adams are two of the least game-script dependent players in all of fantasy football and make for fantastic starts in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend.
It’s the Davante Adams Show … Again
PFF grades Davante Adams’ matchup against the New Orleans secondary as one of the top 10 most advantageous receiver matchups on the slate. Marshon Lattimore has been used in shadow coverage previously on players like Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson, but Adams is a whole different beast in terms of usage. The Packers will move Adams around the formation to ensure he is not consistently covered by any one player.
Less advantageous, however, is Aaron Jones’ matchup against New Orleans’ top-two rush defense. New Orleans’ defensive line is once again expected to be amongst the best in the league, and should bottle up Jones, at least as rusher, making the under on Jones’ rushing yards prop of 62.6 a positive ROI bet this weekend according to the Awesemo projections.
In fact, the Awesemo projections are not particularly bullish on any Packers players, at least compared to their prop-line based expectations. The Awesemo projections suggest bettors take the under on Aaron Rodgers’ completions prop of 24.5 and his passing yardage prop of 285.5.
Alvin Kamara is Nearing Must-Play Territory
Alvin Kamara should be utilized at least 15 times in this game, and his touches could easily crest 20 if the game remains relatively close. The Packers were a below-average defensive unit last season in terms of success rate allowed, making Kamara a solid bet in DFS tournaments, especially considering he is expected to be much less popular compared to other top backs like Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey.
Marquez Calloway has the highest value metric of any player in the DraftKings projections this weekend. The Awesemo projections predict Calloway will smash his 3.5 receptions prop. He is projected to be the primary Saints’ wide receiver for the foreseeable future.
If Calloway disappoints, it is likely due to the fact that Deonte Harris saw more volume than expected. The Saints’ projected second wideout should be on the field a ton this Sunday, and the Packers’ secondary struggled in 2020 against secondary and tertiary options. Harris grades out almost equally well as Calloway in Awesemo’s value metric.
The Bottom Line
Assuming Jameis Winston is not a turnover machine, which is always possible, this could be an incredibly tough test for the Packers, a team with super bowl aspirations, right out of the gate. Without a litany of outside weaponry, expect coach Sean Payton to concoct all sorts of ways to get Alvin Kamara open in space. Meanwhile, the Saints defense is certainly capable of slowing down Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and company, but whether they can do it is an entirely different story. If they contain that dynamic duo, New Orleans likely pulls off the early-season upset.
