Seattle Seahawks (26) at Indianapolis Colts (23.5)
It has been a drama-filled offseason for both the Colts and Seahawks. First, Russell Wilson looked poised to force a trade out of Seattle, with his agent going as far as leaking the places he would enjoy playing, before the Seahawks and Wilson put their differences to rest, at least for now. For the Colts, they scrambled to find a suitable replacement for retiring quarterback Philip Rivers as well as long-time starting tackle Anthony Costanza, who also hung up his cleats following the 2020 season. In their places are Carson Wentz, acquired via an incentive-laden deal with Philadelphia, that may ultimately require the Colts to give up a first-rounder in next years and draft, and tackle Eric Fisher, formally of the Chiefs, who is coming off a late-season injury, and is not 100% entering the season. Still, this is likely to be a close-fought game between two teams capable of making deep playoff runs, with one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate. While there are scenarios in which this game turns into a playoffs-style defensive slog, it is much more likely both teams come out throwing, which means fantasy gamers will want to capitalize on the expected production. Let’s break down the top NFL DFS picks for this matchup.
Russell Wilson
With one of the highest implied totals of the weekend, Wilson looks to be in a particularly strong spot, as the Colts were much more effectively against the rush defensively than the pass. Wilson is projected for over 282 passing yards this week, which would smash his passing yards prop line of 268.5.
Lockett as appealing a target as Metcalf
For Wilson’s big two receivers, the Awesemo projections are a little bit more bullish on Tyler Lockett going over his receptions prop (5.5) compared to D.K. Metcalf (also 5.5), despite Metcalf being the higher-salary wideout on most DFS platforms. The NFL Betting Player props tools suggests betting the under for Metcalf’s reception total this weekend.
Chris Carson, the steady drumbeat of the Seattle Offense
Chris Carson’s rushing yards projection is directly in-line with his rushing prop line of 57.5. In a rarity, the Betting Player Props tool suggests holding-off on a bet for either the under or over, but Carson is a viable pivot play in DFS tournaments this week, despite the Colts above-average play against running backs.
Carson Wentz will be Tested
On the Indianapolis side of the ball, Carson Wentz’ passing yards prop line of 241.5 seems a little high, at least according to the Awesemo projections. Taking the under looks significantly better ROI based on the projections this week.
Jonathan Taylor has a locked-in workload
The same is not true, however, for Colts starting running back Jonathan Taylor, who should see a majority of the workload on the ground for Indianapolis. The Player Props Tools is bullish on the over for Taylor’s rushing yardage prop line of 67.5, predicting well over 70 yards on the ground for the Colts’ start second-year player.
Parris Campbell, Indianapolis’ WR1?
One of the highest ROI bets of any player in this game belongs to Parris Campbell’s receptions prop line, which currently sits at 2.5. The Awesemo projections have Campbell at over 5 receptions against Seattle, making this one of the easiest over bets of the weekend. Campbell has a chance to out-target presumed number-one receiver Michael Pittman.
The Bottom Line
The Colts might be underdogs, but their defense is strong enough to keep their offense, which is likely to be at-or-below league average, in plenty of games this season. If Indianapolis is able to force some early mistakes, or simply contain Seattle’s high-powered offense, they may be able to slow the pace of this game down and turn it into a slow-going defense-focused slog.
