NBA DFS Picks: What Will Luka Doncic Do For An Encore?!

Thursday’s NBA schedule is a consolidated one with all of the games tipping off within a 90 minute window. This means most of the news should be in hand and there will be limited late-swap opportunities.

The action for the six-game main slate gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s look at the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS building blocks today for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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NBA DFS Picks: Thursday, Dec. 29

Core Play of the Day — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks-Houston Rockets

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 62.71 | FanDuel: 60.68
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 24.5% | FanDuel: 13.7%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12m000 | FanDuel: $12m400

There is not much to say about Luka Doncic (110.75) after he shattered the DraftKings and FanDuel (105.2) NBA DFS scoring records on Tuesday night with his 60 point, 21 rebound, 10 assist triple-double. Yes, that was impressive, but to calm those crying out that this happened in overtime – please note: Doncic reach his 49.5 points+rebounds+assists over prop, prior to the start of the fourth quarter.

In the history of the NBA, only Michael Jordan (112.0) posted a better DraftKings score than Doncic, also in an overtime game. In the FanDuel scoring format, that game from Jordan is the second highest of all-time, while Hakeem Olajuwon had a 120.4 fantasy point game in double-overtime and a 112.1 fantasy point game in regulation. Shaquille O’Neal recorded a 107.1 fantasy point game in regulation, relegating Doncic to fifth all-time. Only Jordan did not have double-digit blocks in his effort.

Back to tonight’s action, who knows what we will get from Doncic, but he should be in the mix for 60 fantasy points in a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Even with his lofty salary, our Boom/Bust tool gives him a 21% likelihood of being in the DraftKings optimal lineup and a 14% chance on FanDuel. Keep in mind that the optimal lineup refers to the perfect lineup, based on median projections which have then been run through several thousand potential in-game scenarios.

Oklahoma City Thunder-Charlotte Hornets

Tonight the Thunder are headed to Queen City to take on the Hornets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having by far the best season of his career and is closing the gap with the other fantasy superstars by averaging 1.44 fantasy points per minute. In the month of December, Charlotte is allowing 118.2 points per 100 possessions which is the third highest rate in the league and during this stretch they have the fourth fastest pace. Oklahoma City is second in this category, which should open up the fantasy opportunities as evidenced by the 239.5 point total.

Aleksej Pokusevski (leg) is out through the All-Star Break and with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl not expected to return for another two weeks, the Thunder are running out for centers. That means we are likely to see Darius Bazley get time at the pivot along with veteran Mike Muscala. That is something worth noting for tonight as the Hornets have one of the worst rebounding frontcourts in the league.

Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams all have varying degrees of utility, depending on your DFS site of choice. Giddey stands out on both sites, while the latter two players are best utilized on DraftKings, though they are in the mix for the FanDuel late-slate.

Kelly Oubre Jr. (hand) is unlikely to suit up, so that opens up around 35ish minutes that need to be filled. Nick Richards (ankle) is also questionable, though he is going to go through warmups before determining his status.

LaMelo Ball is a core option tonight and teammates PJ Washington and Terry Rozier are secondary targets. Depending on the status of Richards as well as guard Dennis Smith Jr., Gordon Hayward, Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels could also enter the fray.

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Additional NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Picks Today – Sports Betting Opportunities

Kevin Love is an intriguing option with a 5.5 over/under line on his rebound prop in his matchup against the Pacers. Even as a reserve, Love is still collecting his fair share of caroms with 6.9 per game with a 12.6 per 36 minute rate that is in line with his career numbers. The NBA Bet Pro projections have him collecting 7.2 rebounds for a 62% probability of surpassing his threshold; at -130 on BetMGM, this works out to an expected ROI of 10%.

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New York Knicks-San Antonio Spurs

There is a chance that Jalen Brunson (hip) returns to action after a one-game absence, but RJ Barrett (finger) and Obi Toppin (foot) remain out. Even if Brunson returns, Immanuel Quickley looks like one of the best point per dollar options on the board, particularly since he carries both point and shooting guard eligibility. Quintin Grimes likely will see extra field goal attempts in the absence of Barrett, however, it is hard to be excited about him as he is averaging only 14.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 combined blocks and steals in 35.8 minutes per game over his last 11 starts.

Julius Randle is in the midst of a torrid three week stretch averaging 37.3 minutes per game with 27.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.2 combined blocks and steals. This has resulted in an escalating salary, though this matchup should continue to enable him to provide a return on that investment.

Devin Vassell (knee) and Keldon Johnson (back) are both game time decisions. They have each been getting various rest days, so if both are available they are solid options. If either is out, the other becomes a desirable play and if both are out, well the San Antonio offense will probably fall apart.

Rookie Jeremy Sochan, center Jakob Poeltl and point guard Tre Jones are neutral options, with each getting a 5-7% boost if Vassell or Johnson is out.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today

Tonight is another condensed slate with all six games tipping off in a 90 minute window. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.

Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].