PGA DFS Fades & Pivots Zurich Classic: Leverage w/ Im & Mitchell

This week the PGA Tour heads to New Orleans for the only pairs event on the PGA Tour. The team event pits 80 teams against each other over two different formats (best ball and alternate shot). Teams will play the best ball format on Thursday and Saturday, saving the tougher alternate shot format (where each team plays one ball between them) for Friday and Sunday. Since only 33 teams make the cut this week, getting 6 of 6 players through the Friday cut line on DraftKings will be difficult. The good news is that there are a lot of “dead” teams near the bottom of the entry list who really deserve zero consideration for PGA DFS lineups. Instead, the focus here will be on the best fades and pivots — from Stokastic’s and ownership projections — below.

PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | Zurich Classic of New Orleans

The players will be competing on TPC Louisiana, a venue that has hosted this event for well over a decade, even when it was a singles competition. It is a Pete Dye design but is set up for scoring thanks to softer greens and very light rough. Ball striking is always key, but a high birdie rate and good putting stats from 20 feet and in can help identify some potential spike candidates this week.

It is also important to note that several players have played this event with multiple partners, so make sure to check into a player’s full history in the team portion before writing them off for a lack of experience.

TPC Louisiana Stats and Info

Greens here tend to play a little easier. There is a higher rate of birdie putts made within 20 feet than at a regular PGA Tour venue (via Fantasy National).
The average driving distance at this event is about five to seven yards below the tour average. This fact has stayed true, as the first two winning teams here did not feature a single bomber off the tee.
The four stroke-play winners between 2013 and 2016 all gained four or more strokes putting for the week.

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2023 Zurich Classic DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Max Homa/Collin Morikawa

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 21.4%

There is little doubt that Max Homa and Collin Morikawa make for one of the few elite teams in this event. That does not mean that they are not without flaws, and both Homa and Morikawa have been outperformed in their last couple of starts by several other big names on the PGA, a couple of whom are in the field this week. The duo project strongly but trail the top pairing of Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele by a whopping 15 percentage points in top-6 probability. That makes Morikawa/Homa dubious pivot options off the sure to be massively rostered defending champions — especially considering Homa and Morikawa are still projected to carry 20%-plus ownership in larger fields themselves. With neither player experiencing success in this format, look for a lower-owned pivot with similar scoring projections in this range.

High-End Pivot: Sungjae Im/Keith Mitchell

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 14.9%

While the Sungjae Im/Keith Mitchell pair does not carry quite as much star power as the one mentioned above, it is looking strong in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and is projecting for about 25% to 30% less ownership in larger-field GPPs. The team sits only a few percentile points behind Homa and Morikawa in top-6 probability and ranks third overall in PGA DFS projections. Im also should be entering this week with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after his back-nine rally at the RBC Heritage faltered late on Sunday, leaving him once again with just a top-10 finish and no trophy. Both Im and Mitchell have multiple top-10 finishes this season, and both have played this event multiple times with different partners. The ownership gap is worth taking advantage of this week, especially considering how well Im has played and how close they are to matching Homa and Morikawa in the PGA DFS projections.

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High-End Fade: Kurt Kitayama/Taylor Montgomery

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 16%

Kitayama and Montgomery have had stellar seasons to date, but they are also both coming off a few subpar outings. Montgomery’s missed cut at the RBC Heritage should be a huge red flag considering that is a venue where a supreme putter like him should prosper. Kitayama has also failed to make a cut since winning at Bay Hill, and it feels unlikely he will suddenly turn everything around just for a team event. The team is trending lower in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections than several other teams in its range, but it still is slated for well over 15% on DraftKings. Kitayama and Montgomery make for solid fade candidates considering the poor blend of recent form and heightened popularity.

High-End Pivot: Hayden Buckley/J.J. Spaun

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 8.8%

A great pivot option from the Kitayama/Montgomery chalk will be to simply go up $100 to the J.J. Spaun and Hayden Buckley pairing, which is trending ahead of Kitayama/Montgomery in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and coming in with far lower PGA DFS ownership projections. Buckley has played superb golf of late, gaining over five strokes ball striking in each of his last two starts while also seeing a nice spike with his putter. It led to two more top-10 finishes for a player who nearly won the season opener at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Spaun has not been as good, but he gained strokes ball striking in two straight starts and brings a solid amount of experience in this format. The two make for a great leverage option in this range, with their sub-10% ownership projection.

Mid-Range Fade: Alex Fitzpatrick/Matthew Fitzpatrick

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 25.6%

Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections do not love the fact that Matthew Fitzpatrick — last week’s winner at Harbour Town — is playing this week’s team event with his brother, who is essentially a minor league golfer in Europe. This is a massive step up in competition for Alex Fitzpatrick, and he will also have the pressure of playing with his star brother, who likely sees this week more as a fun outing for him to use as practice for the PGA in a few weeks. Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections agree, as they gave this team just an 8.4% top-6 probability and a sub-1% win probability. Despite the weak projection, the Fitzpatricks are still projected to have massive ownership in the 20% range. For a team that costs over $8,000 on DraftKings, none of these numbers are encouraging for DFS. There are multiple teams in the same range trending with both better scoring optics and far lower PGA DFS ownership projections.

Mid-Range Pivot: Doc Redman/Sam Ryder

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 3.0%

Despite nearly winning in January at the Farmers — and posting a third place just a few weeks ago at the Valero — Sam Ryder is not getting much attention from DFS pundits early in the week. His teammate Doc Redman has six missed cuts in seven weeks and is certainly a valid reason to be wary of Ryder — however, it is worth noting that Redman and Ryder played this event last season and placed fourth. Redman has also started gaining strokes on his approach and off the tee again, so any pop with his putter could see him help this team more than expected. At $8,300 on DraftKings, they are right in the mix with other teams in their price range in terms of Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections but carry the lowest PGA DFS ownership projections of the group by far. Looking to Ryder and Redman may not feel great, but with solid PGA DFS projections and very low ownership, they will be a great GPP roster if they hit.