Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Jacksonville Jaguars (19.25) at Green Bay Packers (33.75)
Jacksonville Passing Game
Though the team ended up losing, Week 9 could have gone much, much worse for the Jacksonville Jaguars. On just the second pass of his career, Jake Luton noticed busted coverage and lofted an easy touch pass to D.J. Chark, who took it 73 yards to the house to start the afternoon in the most picture-perfect way imaginable. But from there, it was a relatively quiet day for Luton. He threw an interception and didn’t add any touchdown passes beyond that first drive score to Chark, but he avoided backbreaking mistakes, threw for over 300 yards on a respectable 0.98 passer air conversion ratio and scrambled for a score in the waning moments of the game to get the Jaguars within 2 points. It was more than a respectable first start for the sixth-rounder, and Jaguars coaches are now intimating that Luton could take over the starting quarterback job for the rest of the season if he continues to play at that level. That’s something to monitor as we head towards the home stretch of the regular season.
Against the Packers, however, Luton and the Jaguars come into this game as heavy underdogs despite the Green Bay secondary possibly being without some of their most important pieces. Both cornerback Kevin King (leg) and all-world cornerback Jaire Alexander (concussion) aren’t practicing as of midweek, putting their Sunday status in serious jeopardy. Even with Alexander, the No. 1 cornerback on PFF, the Packers rank league average in PFF’s coverage grade. If they’re forced to move to their third and fourth stringers, that’s a matchup that even a sixth-rounder in his second start of their career should take advantage of.
The primary beneficiary in this circumstance would be the aforementioned Chark, who saw a team-high 13 targets, his second game this year reaching double digits in targets. Chris Conley quietly saw eight looks himself, tacking on a healthy 52 yards. No other Jaguars tight end or receiver saw more than five looks, but it was encouraging to see Tyler Eifert see five targets, third most on the offense, in his first action back since week 5. He’s seen five or more looks in 80% of the games he’s started this year. The Jaguars also hope to have back Laviska Shenault, who’s nursing a hamstring injury but practicing on a limited basis. Assuming he’s active, the Awesemo projections see him as an interesting tournament play, particularly with a salary under $4,000 on DraftKings and ownership projection of just over 5%. Especially if the Green Bay cornerbacks sit, the auxiliary weapons from Jacksonville could absolutely have value in this spot.
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Jacksonville Rushing Game
Rookie running back James Robinson saw his highest opportunity count of his career last weekend, finishing week 9’s loss to the Texans with 25 rushes and two carries for 99 total yards and a touchdown. It was yet another run-of-the-mill RB1 performance for Robinson, who continues to perform well above historical expectation from an elusiveness standpoint despite the volatility of the Jacksonville passing game from week to week. Robinson ranks second on the team in target share and 12th in the NFL in quality opportunities (targets and goal line rushes). This week he faces a Packers defensive front that ranks 12th worst in PFF’s rushing defense grade, 10th worst in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards allowed and dead last in PFF’s team tackling grade. Robinson is a safe option for a team projected to lose by more than two touchdowns. He’s worth it for daily fantasy football lineups this weekend, even with the sixth-highest running back salary on the main slate.
Green Bay Passing Game
The Packers were on cruise control last Thursday night, pulling away from the 49ers by halftime and reaching a 99.9% win probability by mid-third quarter (creating one of the largest garbage-time periods in any game this season). It was largely in part to the brilliant play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers completed nearly 81% of his passes for a blistering 9.8 yards per attempt and four touchdowns (with no picks) in an effortless dismantling of the San Francisco secondary. It was Rodgers’ third time in the top five quarterbacks in fantasy scoring in their last five games and the sixth time in his last seven games finishing in the top 10.
That’s an unbelievable amount of consistency, especially for a quarterback who doesn’t offer much on the ground at this point in his career. And looking at his week 10 opponent in Jacksonville, it’s hard to imagine Rodgers not performing well in this spot. Besides the Tampa Bay game, where Rodgers looked completely flummoxed all afternoon, Rodgers has been arguably the most consistent passer in the NFL, ranking third in fantasy points per dropback, second in adjusted yards per attempt and first in total QBR. With his receivers getting healthier and facing a Jaguars secondary that ranks 31st in points allowed per play, it’s all systems go for Rodgers this weekend. The Awesemo projections think Rodgers’ second-highest salary among quarterbacks on the main slate is reasonable. Play him with confidence this weekend.
In the receiving game, it doesn’t take a genius to realize Davante Adams is the best play, disregarding salary, at the wide receiver position. There’s been just one game this season where Adams has played a full snap share and not reached 20 fantasy points. He’s running away with the league lead in true weighted opportunity share, and he has one of the best quarterbacks of all time delivering him the football. There really isn’t much to say about Adams; if his salary of $9,000 is able to be worked into your daily fantasy football lineups, you play him. The Jaguars rank 10th worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary wide receivers.
Green Bay also expects to get back Allen Lazard, which means the Packers will be operating at full strength in the receiving game for the first time in weeks against a Jacksonville secondary that ranks 28th in PFF’s team coverage grade. Fantasy gamers who are looking to create alternative stacks with this offense could absolutely look at tight end Robert Tonyan, who’s Awesemo projection on puts him well ahead of his salary-based expectations. Tonyan only saw one target in week 9, but he still had 10 looks over the Packers’ last three games. And while neither Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling pops off the page as great value plays, if Rodgers sees a matchup that he wants to exploit, he won’t hesitate to do so play after play, and it’s very possible one of those receivers could be the beneficiary. Assuming he plays, the Awesemo projections are bullish on Lazard, as he’s only the 54th-highest-salary wideout on the main slate.
Green Bay Rushing Game
Star running back Aaron Jones returned to the Packers’ lineup last Thursday after missing the last two weeks with a lower leg injury. He immediately saw his typical 20 opportunities in Green Bay’s blowout victory over the 49ers. Jones has now reached the 20-opportunity mark in five of six starts this season and has not had fewer than 15 looks in a game this season. He’s also not seen fewer than four targets in a game and has five or more in 80% of his starts. In that context, Jones’ 79 yards were fairly mediocre, but that shouldn’t concern fantasy gamers whatsoever when considering Jones against the anemic Jaguars rush defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed per drive and points allowed per drive. Jones will come highly owned and with massive expectations when utilized in daily fantasy football lineups in week 10 as the second-highest-salary running back on the slate, but Jones’ percentage of your budget is a heavy discount compared to top running back Alvin Kamara. Even with scat back Tyler Ervin posting an impressive 72 total yards on 13 opportunities and Jamaal Williams expected back this week, Jones is a smash play at $7,100 on the main slate.
Prediction: Packers 38, Jaguars 7
Jump to Another Game
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
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